League of Ireland: Who has been Lucky so far
What is PDO?
Simply PDO is [percent of shots faced that are saved] + [percent of shots taken which result in a goal]. Usually it is multiplied by 10 to remove decimal places for presentation.
This is important in football because no matter the team (good or bad), their average PDO rarely strays outside a narrow band around the 1000 average. Any deviation from this band is usually put down to good luck for a high PDO, or bad luck for an unusually low PDO.
This is hard to explain why this measure tends to bunch very closely around the average. It could have to do with good teams defending so high up the pitch (as the defenders become extra attackers) and this would affect the type of chances they allow their opponents. It could have something to do with good teams taking their foot off the pedal when they get comfortably in front. It could have something to do with poor teams defenders becoming so conditioned to defending that they don't give out any straight forward chances. Whatever the reason it is very unusual to have both a high save percent and a high shot scored percent - unless through luck.
What is TSR?
TSR is the Total Shot Ratio - so the percentage of shots in a game that were for your team. It basically measures the teams dominance in a game. This correlates strongly with a teams points. It is much more straight forward to understand how this relates to skill than to understand how PDO relates to luck.
Lucky vs Good Scatter.
We can graph our "Good" measure (TSR) against our "Lucky" measure (PDO) to see which teams might be doing better.
The chart shows that Cork, Bohs and Bray are probably getting the best luck so far. With Sligo the unluckiest.
The best teams measured by TSR are Dundalk, Sligo, Cork and Shamrock Rovers.
This tells me that I would expect to see Sligo's save percent and shot percent to average up to a more realistic average and with that hopefully some good results. It's also telling me that Bohs may not sustain their early title aspirations and that Bray although they have had a good start and find themselves almost in midtable, they will probably be dragged back down into the relegation battle sooner rather than later.
Finally the table below is updated for the Friday matches, I've been keeping an eye on these stats for the teams this season.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | Prob | Shot % | Save % | SoTR | TSR | PDO | Pyth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 42% | 26% | 85% | 74% | 65% | 1109 | 19.58 |
| Cork City | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 25% | 34% | 88% | 71% | 62% | 1224 | 20.36 |
| Shamrock Rovers | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 29% | 23% | 88% | 63% | 61% | 1112 | 18.20 |
| Bohemians | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 4% | 31% | 89% | 45% | 48% | 1196 | 16.32 |
| St Patrick's Athletic | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 14% | 24% | 83% | 51% | 53% | 1063 | 13.49 |
| Derry City | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 9 | 1% | 22% | 76% | 45% | 45% | 980 | 8.90 |
| Longford Town FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 | 1% | 19% | 74% | 53% | 51% | 926 | 9.52 |
| Drogheda United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 | 0% | 21% | 74% | 39% | 43% | 958 | 6.80 |
| Bray Wanderers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 | 0% | 33% | 82% | 30% | 36% | 1150 | 9.16 |
| Sligo Rovers | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 | 1% | 13% | 67% | 60% | 61% | 792 | 7.09 |
| Galway United FC | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 | 0% | 21% | 73% | 36% | 40% | 932 | 5.40 |
| Limerick | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 3 | 0% | 19% | 70% | 34% | 40% | 890 | 4.16 |
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