FoG

Edit: Read the terms and conditions very carefully on Paddypower. They can change the terms of this promotion, sometimes only offering money back if you're horse is 2nd to the SP favourite . This makes it much less likely that you will win a free bet - and more than likely means that this promotion is not worth playing. Paddy Power's new offer is money back  as a free bet if your horse finishes 2nd. They are offering this on one selected meeting per day. Is this offer profitable for the punter? The Strategy 1. Back all horses 3/1 and shorter - winning cash if your horse wins and a free bet if your horse is 2nd. 2. Back horses at around 9/2 with your free bets earned - this maximises your profits off your free bets. The Theory Let's make some assumptions. We will assume that the bookie has a 10% edge, i.e. on our real money bets we expect to win back just 90% in the long run. We will assume that a horses chance of placing (finishing first, second or third) ...

#EPL #TopScorer some movement on the top scorer. #Aguero starting at 3/1 back in June/July. Now at 6/1!! pic.twitter.com/ZvsKMBeqnI — FoG (@davidheaney1978) August 15, 2014 So you read my tweet back in August about Aguero and decided to back him for top scorer at what really was an incredible 6/1 offer.  You backed him on Paddy Power who were offering a   € 2 free bet every time your player scores.  Now you are getting all these   € 2  free bets and don't know what to do with them. The important thing to realise is that the terms of the offer mean that you only get the winnings from the bet, the free stake is not returned.   So there is absolutely no risk, which is the main reason why you would normally stay away from the long shots ie you lose  € 2  euro each time until the underdog eventually comes in and then you win relatively big.  Normally this would all balance out but the free bet rules bring in a new dynamic to our reasoning...