FoG

Paddypower are re-runnning their top goalscorer promotion from last season. See here how I turned this to my favour last season. This season the bookie highly rates Aguero and Costa. So I am recommending putting €20 on both Aguero and Costa, and €10 e/w bet on maybe Wayne Rooney or one of the outside favourites.  With these three players likely to score at least 13 goals each next season this will likely earn us 3 x 13 x €2 free bets. So €78 in free bets which with a bit of thinking you should be able to convert back to €62.40 in real money. So you will probably win back your stake before the bet is settled. For tips on getting the most from your free bets click here . Raheem Sterling is 66/1 to make top goalscorer, but the odds (see below) are suggesting that Paddy Power are reckoning on him hitting the net 9 or 10 times next season. I take this to mean that those players quoted at 20/1 and shorter are likely to score at least a few more goals, say at...

Everyone that knows me is sick to the back teeth of hearing about how I tipped Aguero for top scorer at the beginning of the season - made my money back on free bets - and  won the 6/1 payout on the Argentinian star. So this will be my last post on the matter. Did I get lucky, or was it a solid strategy. The big draw for me was the free bets. Paddy power were offering a €2 free bet for every goal scored. So lets take a look at what odds were on offer at the beginning of season. Top Scorer odds recorded from @paddypower on 15th Aug 2014 Of the top 5 preseason fancies some fared well, others not so good. Van Persie scored 10, Costa 20, Aguero 26, Sturridge 4 and Rooney 12. That is a total of 72 goals, or €144 in free bets. Read  here to see how to convert that €144 in free bets into up to about €115. To back all 5 strikers would have cost you €100 - so you are probably even or on a small profit just from the free bets before the winner is announced. When the...

At the weekend Kane catapulted himself to joint favourite for Top Scorer in the Premier League. Before the end of January one popular bookmaker was not even quoting odds for the Spurs striker. Back to back braces (against West Brom and Arsenal) at the end of January finally made them take notice and his chances have been slowly on the rise until the weekend when they went into the stratosphere.  His hat-trick at the weekend was against relegation bound Leicester and the other sharp rise shown in the chart below was courtesy of a double against basement side QPR on 6th March. Probability based on the odds trends since late Jan showing the rise of Harry Kane as a contender for the Premier League golden boot award His chances of taking the golden boot have also been helped by the fact that Costa and Aguero are both going through something of a dry spell - for example the Argentine hasn't scored a goal in the Premier League since 21st of Feb. Costa and Kane are now tied o...

The last time before now that I was in any way invested in Sergio Aguero was when I had picked him for my fantasy football team in 2012/13.  He got injured on the first day of the season that time!   Now I am invested in him again after taking up Paddy Power on their top scorer promotion.  I have  € 20 on him at 6/1.  I have been collecting free  € 2 bets each time he scores and so far have made back  € 13.83 of the initial  € 20 on the winnings from these free bets.  But when Saturday came and news trickled in about his injury all those feelings from my failed fantasy team episode came rushing back. Paddy Power were quick to take down the market for top goal scorer while rumours and speculation played out about the extent of the injury.  They have finally put the market back up today (3 days later) and to my surprise the value of my investment has not fallen all that far.   EPL Top Scorer Betting Trend I am certainl...

#EPL #TopScorer some movement on the top scorer. #Aguero starting at 3/1 back in June/July. Now at 6/1!! pic.twitter.com/ZvsKMBeqnI — FoG (@davidheaney1978) August 15, 2014 So you read my tweet back in August about Aguero and decided to back him for top scorer at what really was an incredible 6/1 offer.  You backed him on Paddy Power who were offering a   € 2 free bet every time your player scores.  Now you are getting all these   € 2  free bets and don't know what to do with them. The important thing to realise is that the terms of the offer mean that you only get the winnings from the bet, the free stake is not returned.   So there is absolutely no risk, which is the main reason why you would normally stay away from the long shots ie you lose  € 2  euro each time until the underdog eventually comes in and then you win relatively big.  Normally this would all balance out but the free bet rules bring in a new dynamic to our reasoning...