FoG

LoI LMS Last year I posted about the Paddy Power Last Man standing competition which was specific for the English Premiership. I have now discovered a new free  one for the League of Ireland with a prize of  € 200 . It is starting this coming weekend.  You need to play on your smart device - details are on their website here . My experience is that about 50% of players will fall in each round - so the winning plan really depends on the number of players entering.  In the English Premier League version of the competition it was likely that you would not have to pick every team but in the LoI (with less teams) it is quite likely that you will have to pick every team at least once. There are over 100 players already entered with still 3 days to the closing date and most people will leave it to the last minute. Also bear in mind that this tournament allows you to buy back in once. So lets assume that we will have to plan to win at least 12 rounds - i.e. ...

The table is starting to take shape and most teams have played 5 games.  Predictably Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers are rising to the top, with Limerick and Bray settlling at the bottom.  The story so far has been about Sligo and Bohs. Sligo were quite highly rated at the beginning of the season but have just 2 points from a possible 15. Bohs on the other hand were 150/1 before a ball was kicked but are sitting pretty in 3rd place. Sligo have had a tough start to the campaign having already faced the top 2, but Bohs also have. So why does it seem that these two teams have switched places? Preseason Outrigh Betting (odds recorded from @paddypower 3/3/2015) We can delve into the numbers a little deeper and it does seem that Sligo have had a fairly big slice of bad luck so far. Nobody has created more shots (63) or shots on target (41) than Sligo so far in the season. They have also been scoring goals - with only 4 teams netting more often. It really looks like th...

Initially Pats were the bookie's outright favourite but their odds continued to lengthen in the run up to the season kickoff, to the point that I personally thought they were good value.  Knowing that they had Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers away in their first 3 matches and the potential for a slip up I opted to wait and  see if their odds would lengthen  even more. And they did.  They have gone from 5/2 to 7/2 which gives you an extra 40% back on your stake. Tough start to the season sees early favourites Pats drop out of favour with the bookies So what to think about that.  Well yes it was what I was hoping for but the degree at which they struggled against their two main rivals has me worried.  Against each of Dundalk and Rovers they only managed to create one shot on target.  Meanwhile Dundalk created 11 shots on target against them on the way to scoring 3 unanswered goals. On the other hand, the League of Ireland is traditionally very open...

The League of Ireland kicks off again on Friday.   I have recorded the Outright odds for the entire off season to see how events (like signings) affect  the bookies odds. With the exception of the date when Danny North signed for Rovers the major transfer  moves did not affect the bookie's odds at all.  Even when one of the leagues most high profile players  Keith Fahey moved from one contender across the city to another contender - it didn't shift the bookie's opinion. It didn't budge either when the fixture list was announced. The bookie's odds did change during the off season though.  What dark forces could be behind this? LoI odds fluctuations during the off season St Pats moved the most from 2/1 to 5/2.   This feels like it is punters voting with their cash and shifting the odds.  But could punters be biased towards  the popular well supported clubs?  Or is the collective intelligence of thousands of punters simply c...

All fixtures are summarised below.  The matches are rated by difficulty based on outright odds of their opponents, and whether the match is home or away.  Hover over the match for some more details. Included also is the total number of home games played, and the total number of home games against the big 4 (Pats, Dundalk, Shamrock Rovers, Cork). The airtricity league is somewhat unique in that each team doesn't play equal home and away games.  To make up 33 matches each team plays the others 3 times, in some cases twice at home and once away, and in other cases vice versa.  It is possible that a team can have an advantage over the season by playing more home games over all or more home games against the tougher teams.  For example Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk, Pats and Cork only once away each, but twice at home. First Half team home games home vs top 4 Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 Series 6 Series 7 Series 8 Series 9 ...

The fixtures for the LoI were announced yesterday.  The full list by team can be found here . The two favourites (Shamrock Rovers and St. Pats) play out on the first day. Last years champs and runners up Dundalk and Cork don't have easy starts either.  They both face top teams in their first 4 matches.  Perhaps Dundalk have the easier start - although they have to face St Pats (favourites) on day 3.  The opportunity is there for another team to make their mark on the table in the first few weeks (Limerick maybe?). Drogheda avoid all of St. Pats, Shamrock Rovers, Cork and Dundalk in their first 6 matches.  This could mean a good start which could translate into some confidence and momentum which they will need.  They may be relegation contenders next season. If St. Pats are in contention at the end they may have a slight advantage in the run in.  Bohs, Galway, Drogheda and Longford are among the teams they play in the last 5 matches.  None ...

There is a mathematical probability distribution called the Poisson distribution.  It turns out that the Poisson model can be successful at predicting arrival rates, for example the number of cars arriving per red light cycle, number of customers arriving at a store per hour, number of claims received at an insurance company per day or number of goals scored by a football team per match .  All you need to know is the average, and from that you can calculate the probability. The formula has been around for centuries and is tried and tested.  Even the bookie's place some weight on it (you can read about Pinnacle Sports version of the Poisson here ). There is some significance in the Dundalk vs Cork City match in Oriel Park this Friday.  Lets calculate the home win/draw/away win probabilities for that match. The trick is in finding the average home goals and away goals to use in the formula.  We know that home field advantage plays a big part in football. ...