FoG

I wanted to reframe Shannon's Demon which I came across lately from a betting perspective and see what it tells us about Expected Value and staking. The idea is that I have a bank, say €100.  I have a bet that I can make every day, suppose I am quite a professional and I am easily capable of finding sportsbooks offering 2/1 (3.0, +200) on a true even money chance (2.0, +100).  That is a pretty huge edge right there.  There is no way that I can screw this one up!  (Is there?). I am going to bet half my bank each time.  Its a big edge, I dont want to waste it.  Also as I half my bank it will prevent me from going bust, it may reduce during a long drawdown but cannot reach zero (in theory!) and is unlikely to go below say €1 - which would double up fast again in good times. And as likely it is to drop below €1, it is equally likely to double up to €10,000s which more than balances out that risk. So you take your €100 balance and bet half ie €50 @ 2/1 with a 50/50 chance of winning. 

I have developed a chrome extension that generates the win overrounds and place overrounds on top of the oddschecker website.  You can get it from chrome store here . This can help highlight markets where the place book is overbroke and may help to unlock some each way value. Now I have created a simple javascript calculator to help guide recommendations on staking based on Kelly but taking account of the nuance of each way betting. Warning.  This calculator is next to useless.  It assumes only one horse is value in a bad each way race, and we know that often several of the rags can be value each time.  If you are making multiple bets on the same race you have to consider the "Real" Kelly Criterion as discussed here . This is going to be a difficult calculation because not only do you need to know the probability for each horses win/place, you also need to know the probability of all the possible combos.   Warning.   It also assumes that you cannot hedge the bet.  Which in

We all get frustrated when we find a nice little edge at a soft book and get restricted or closed.  I certainly did .  I've definitely learned a lot since.  And that is the point.  Its all about learning. I think of it as betting school now. You start your education in Junior Infants/Kindergarten.  Your teacher sets a book - copies the market prices, can move the odds depending on action too.  You are four years old.  If Bill Benter is in your class you never win, all the money eventually ends up in his pocket (and a small margin in the teachers).  Its a zero sum game and the bookie is just the middle man.  You stay bottom of your class, you never progress. The beauty though is he is not in your class, he has graduated Junior Infants a long time ago.  He doesn't have access to a bet365 account.  You can win in this limited market, you can learn, you can increase your motivation, you can build your bank roll. I had spent far too long muddling about on bet365 on small stakes.  Yo

In practical terms what does the ESL look like.  There are the 12 Original Founder Clubs (F), along with 3 more clubs that are expected to be invited as Founders (I).  There would then be 5 Qualifying Clubs (Q).  These 20 teams would be split into two Groups.   I assume the split will be based on balancing the teams both by strength and by region.  And assuming the German and French clubs are forced/coaxed on board at some point.  Finally assuming with 5 qualifiers, that leaves a spot for each of the 5 countries for the next best team.  The teams involved and the split could look like below. Chart 1: Possible example of the teams/split for the European Super League The top 3 teams in each Group qualify directly for the quarter finals, and 4th and 5th enter a playoff for the other places in the quarter finals. I've made some other random assumptions on the seeding for knockout rounds etc. I have used the Clubelo rankings for the teams - and a basic/naive elo system to simulate the