FoG

Ronaldo and Romelu Lukaku will go into the last round of group games level on 4 goals each. Lukaku has made it to 4 goals in less playing time.  Ronaldo will have a chance to take a clear lead when Portugal face Iran - Iran held out well against Spain but realistically you would expect Portugal to win, and Portugal have to score, group qualification is not secured yet for the Portugese. Portugal may also be motivated to run up a big goal difference because 1st in the group may give a slightly more favourable route through the Round of 16 and Quarters than 2nd. Belgium's final group match is against England. It could be tight. Or, with both teams already qualified the coach might decide to rest players. Also the winner of the Belgium group will be sent on course to meet either Brazil or Germany in the Quarter Final. It all contributes to the opinion that England versus Belgium might not be the most competitive match. However over 2.5 goals is trading at 2.2 on betfair exchange...

The warm up matches give a good indication on which players are in form. It also gives us an indication of where the national coaches minds are in regards their first 11. To be top scorer you have to be in form and a starter. During the past week of International Friendlies I monitored the Exchange prices for the top scorers. I use the exchange prices to calculate probabilities (for example 100/1 ~= 1% chance). The biggest movers are graphed below. Exchange Price movement on the Top Scorer market in betfair. Aleksander Mitrovic : A hat-trick against Bolivia in a 5-1  win for the Serb seems to have triggered some interest in him. Not only does it show that he is on form, but also may be an indication that Serbia can go deep. It was certainly an impressive score line.  You can still get Mitrovic at 150/1 at Bet365. Mario Mandzukic : The Croatian scored in the Friendly win against Senegal. I don't see much else behind the move for this veteran striker who would have b...

When looking for he top scorer it can be useful to consider teams that go deep in the tournament... but how deep? ... and how important is it really? Probabilities (based on betfair prices)  of 1) reaching the semi and 2) being eliminated at the semi. Are those who are eliminated in the semi final more likely to score in the playoff game? Each team that makes the semi's will play the max amount of possible games, and 24 of the all the previous top scorers (29 in total) made it to at least the semi's. So no need to be over restrictive here at all, widen your net beyond the Brazilians and the Germans.  In fact only 6 of the 29 were part of the team that won the World Cup. There are many teams with a shot at the semis. Think beyond just the title contenders. Actually think about the 3rd/4th place play off. 10 of the previous golden boot winners won the playoff. The playoff can be more free flowing and less tense and tactical than the final. In this century there have b...

Last season Paddy Power ran a promo on the top goalscorer in the Premier League. They are bringing it back this season to my delight. I have my bets in already - see here . Betfair don't want to lose the market to Paddy and have come out with a similar offer. See their website here . Paddy Power vs Betfair The Original offer. 1. You only need to stake €20. This is a pro. The Bookie is sure to have a nice little edge built into this market. You can probably expect to lose 10-20% back to the bookie here. So long term this offer will cost you about €2 to €4. 2. You can back multiple scorers and get free bets on each one. This is a huge pro - its the offer that keeps giving. I would draw the line at 3 players as there is a €10 free bet limit per week. So after 5 goals per week you can't earn any more value. 3. You only get €2 free bet each time your pick scores (up to a max €10 per customer per week). On first sight this looks like a con. But if your man s...

Paddypower are re-runnning their top goalscorer promotion from last season. See here how I turned this to my favour last season. This season the bookie highly rates Aguero and Costa. So I am recommending putting €20 on both Aguero and Costa, and €10 e/w bet on maybe Wayne Rooney or one of the outside favourites.  With these three players likely to score at least 13 goals each next season this will likely earn us 3 x 13 x €2 free bets. So €78 in free bets which with a bit of thinking you should be able to convert back to €62.40 in real money. So you will probably win back your stake before the bet is settled. For tips on getting the most from your free bets click here . Raheem Sterling is 66/1 to make top goalscorer, but the odds (see below) are suggesting that Paddy Power are reckoning on him hitting the net 9 or 10 times next season. I take this to mean that those players quoted at 20/1 and shorter are likely to score at least a few more goals, say at...

At the weekend Kane catapulted himself to joint favourite for Top Scorer in the Premier League. Before the end of January one popular bookmaker was not even quoting odds for the Spurs striker. Back to back braces (against West Brom and Arsenal) at the end of January finally made them take notice and his chances have been slowly on the rise until the weekend when they went into the stratosphere.  His hat-trick at the weekend was against relegation bound Leicester and the other sharp rise shown in the chart below was courtesy of a double against basement side QPR on 6th March. Probability based on the odds trends since late Jan showing the rise of Harry Kane as a contender for the Premier League golden boot award His chances of taking the golden boot have also been helped by the fact that Costa and Aguero are both going through something of a dry spell - for example the Argentine hasn't scored a goal in the Premier League since 21st of Feb. Costa and Kane are now tied o...