FoG

Paddy Power had already partially restricted my account (read here ) but now comes the full restriction. So the good times lasted from from the 29th of April 2015 up until the 19th Feb 2016. Withdrawals totalled €3,209.93 on an initial deposit of €20 and a €100 top up. It financed a trip to Canada for me, a brand new sofa for the family and helped out with a lot of bills and also spending money for the holidays. Read through my blog for tips and advice on getting the most from your bookie too - it is possible to make this without much knowledge of betting or sports. It just takes a few tricks to use the bookie's free bet offers and promotions to turn it in your favour. Reading forums and message boards there seems to have been a big cull of winning accounts. The logical reason is that Cheltenham is coming up and Paddy Power are probably planning some very good promotions for then and don't want to be fleeced by their regular winners - so as I said, read thro...

Edit: Read the terms and conditions very carefully on Paddypower. They can change the terms of this promotion, sometimes only offering money back if you're horse is 2nd to the SP favourite . This makes it much less likely that you will win a free bet - and more than likely means that this promotion is not worth playing. Paddy Power's new offer is money back  as a free bet if your horse finishes 2nd. They are offering this on one selected meeting per day. Is this offer profitable for the punter? The Strategy 1. Back all horses 3/1 and shorter - winning cash if your horse wins and a free bet if your horse is 2nd. 2. Back horses at around 9/2 with your free bets earned - this maximises your profits off your free bets. The Theory Let's make some assumptions. We will assume that the bookie has a 10% edge, i.e. on our real money bets we expect to win back just 90% in the long run. We will assume that a horses chance of placing (finishing first, second or third) ...

The League of Ireland kicks off again on Friday.   I have recorded the Outright odds for the entire off season to see how events (like signings) affect  the bookies odds. With the exception of the date when Danny North signed for Rovers the major transfer  moves did not affect the bookie's odds at all.  Even when one of the leagues most high profile players  Keith Fahey moved from one contender across the city to another contender - it didn't shift the bookie's opinion. It didn't budge either when the fixture list was announced. The bookie's odds did change during the off season though.  What dark forces could be behind this? LoI odds fluctuations during the off season St Pats moved the most from 2/1 to 5/2.   This feels like it is punters voting with their cash and shifting the odds.  But could punters be biased towards  the popular well supported clubs?  Or is the collective intelligence of thousands of punters simply c...