FoG

I am comparing prices from a week ago on the exchange with the current prices. I am trying to spot a trend, to see who the momentum is behind.  Country Current Price Price Last week Current implied prob Prob last week Move Brazil 5.2 5.6 19.23% 17.86% 8% Germany 6.0 6.0 16.67% 16.67% 0% Spain 8.2 7.4 12.20% 13.51% -10% France 8.8 7.8 11.36% 12.82% -11% Argentina 11.0 11.0 9.09% 9.09% 0% Belgium 12.0 12.5 8.33% 8.00% 4% England 19.0 19.0 5.26% 5.26% 0% Portugal 26.0 28.0 3.85% 3.57% 8% Uruguay 30.0 34.0 3.33% 2.94% 13% Croatia 38.0 36.0 2.63% 2.78% -5% Colombia 50.0 50.0 2.00% 2.00% 0% Russia 85.0 65.0 1.18% 1.54% -24% Poland 95.0 100.0 1.05% 1.00% 5% Denmark 120.0 130.0 0.83% 0.77% 8% Serbia 170.0 230.0 0.59% 0.43% 35% Switzerland 170.0 170.0 0.59% 0.59% 0% Mexico 190.0 150.0 0.53% 0.67% -21% Peru 230.0 220.0 0.43% 0.45% -4% Senegal 260.0 270.0 0.38% 0.37% 4% Sweden 340.0 260.0 0.29% 0.38% -24% Iceland 400.0 410.0 0.25% 0.24% 3% Egypt 440.0 300.0 0.23% 0....

So with the recent news which announced that Qatar 2022 will be the first Winter World Cup it has gotten some of us wondering how that could work to the advantage of some Nations.  Players' fitness can vary throughout the season starting from unfit, progressing to match fit, on to peak fitness and by the end of the season tired.  Different leagues have different season - in December in England, the premier league will be in full swing in December, but in United States the MLS will be on their off season. There is very little data for most teams, for example the last time that Ireland played an International match in December was back in 1948 which was a Friendly in Dublin that they lost to Switzerland.  This is hardly an indication though that Ireland will do poorly in a December World Cup in 2022. So to make the analysis relevant the below table only includes recent internationals (since 2000).  The table includes Nov and Jan as well as Dec because of the shorta...