Is there any Sense in the Messi Mess?
Is there any Sense in the Messi Mess? I'll try to keep this short - just to keep it as a record of what has happened and how the betfair exchange markets have followed. I have followed the market "Specials - Messi Next Club - Transder Window Ending 5th Oct", alongside the "English Premier League Winner 2020/21" market. The idea was to inspect: 1. How the market reacted to certain news, 2. How much signing Messi would increase the chance of Man City to win the Premier League. Chart: Trend of prices and significant events marked (click to enlarge) So what I noticed was: Was the "Messi Next Club" market ever very accurate? There was a spell between Aug 26 and Sep 3 where it didn't appear to matter whether signing would add value to the City squad or not. The price of winning the Premier League remained more or less constant at about 1.74 (a 57% chance) when it looked like they were probably going to sign Messi (for example as short as 1.68