FoG

There is a buzz starting around England's chances and rightly so - the wisdom of the betfair hive mind has acted to shorten their price from 18.5 pre tournament into 8.2 now. This represents a move from about 5% chance to just over 12% chance. It has mostly been out of their control up to now, the victory against Tunisia was expected so only raised their hopes by 1.5%, similarly the victory over Panama. The big influencers were the German and Spanish eliminations which raised their chances by 2% and 3% respectively. Even defeat to Belgium increased England's chances ever so slightly. It is reason for optimism for sure as their chances have at least doubled. But feet need to stick firmly on the ground. Their advantage so far has come from outside influences without them having to perform, now its time for them to prove themselves. Japan was assumed the easier R16 match for Group G but they went two up on Belgium - so what of Colombia? Some places are calling this one m...

Ronaldo and Romelu Lukaku will go into the last round of group games level on 4 goals each. Lukaku has made it to 4 goals in less playing time.  Ronaldo will have a chance to take a clear lead when Portugal face Iran - Iran held out well against Spain but realistically you would expect Portugal to win, and Portugal have to score, group qualification is not secured yet for the Portugese. Portugal may also be motivated to run up a big goal difference because 1st in the group may give a slightly more favourable route through the Round of 16 and Quarters than 2nd. Belgium's final group match is against England. It could be tight. Or, with both teams already qualified the coach might decide to rest players. Also the winner of the Belgium group will be sent on course to meet either Brazil or Germany in the Quarter Final. It all contributes to the opinion that England versus Belgium might not be the most competitive match. However over 2.5 goals is trading at 2.2 on betfair exchange...

I am comparing prices from a week ago on the exchange with the current prices. I am trying to spot a trend, to see who the momentum is behind.  Country Current Price Price Last week Current implied prob Prob last week Move Brazil 5.2 5.6 19.23% 17.86% 8% Germany 6.0 6.0 16.67% 16.67% 0% Spain 8.2 7.4 12.20% 13.51% -10% France 8.8 7.8 11.36% 12.82% -11% Argentina 11.0 11.0 9.09% 9.09% 0% Belgium 12.0 12.5 8.33% 8.00% 4% England 19.0 19.0 5.26% 5.26% 0% Portugal 26.0 28.0 3.85% 3.57% 8% Uruguay 30.0 34.0 3.33% 2.94% 13% Croatia 38.0 36.0 2.63% 2.78% -5% Colombia 50.0 50.0 2.00% 2.00% 0% Russia 85.0 65.0 1.18% 1.54% -24% Poland 95.0 100.0 1.05% 1.00% 5% Denmark 120.0 130.0 0.83% 0.77% 8% Serbia 170.0 230.0 0.59% 0.43% 35% Switzerland 170.0 170.0 0.59% 0.59% 0% Mexico 190.0 150.0 0.53% 0.67% -21% Peru 230.0 220.0 0.43% 0.45% -4% Senegal 260.0 270.0 0.38% 0.37% 4% Sweden 340.0 260.0 0.29% 0.38% -24% Iceland 400.0 410.0 0.25% 0.24% 3% Egypt 440.0 300.0 0.23% 0....

The warm up matches give a good indication on which players are in form. It also gives us an indication of where the national coaches minds are in regards their first 11. To be top scorer you have to be in form and a starter. During the past week of International Friendlies I monitored the Exchange prices for the top scorers. I use the exchange prices to calculate probabilities (for example 100/1 ~= 1% chance). The biggest movers are graphed below. Exchange Price movement on the Top Scorer market in betfair. Aleksander Mitrovic : A hat-trick against Bolivia in a 5-1  win for the Serb seems to have triggered some interest in him. Not only does it show that he is on form, but also may be an indication that Serbia can go deep. It was certainly an impressive score line.  You can still get Mitrovic at 150/1 at Bet365. Mario Mandzukic : The Croatian scored in the Friendly win against Senegal. I don't see much else behind the move for this veteran striker who would have b...

When looking for he top scorer it can be useful to consider teams that go deep in the tournament... but how deep? ... and how important is it really? Probabilities (based on betfair prices)  of 1) reaching the semi and 2) being eliminated at the semi. Are those who are eliminated in the semi final more likely to score in the playoff game? Each team that makes the semi's will play the max amount of possible games, and 24 of the all the previous top scorers (29 in total) made it to at least the semi's. So no need to be over restrictive here at all, widen your net beyond the Brazilians and the Germans.  In fact only 6 of the 29 were part of the team that won the World Cup. There are many teams with a shot at the semis. Think beyond just the title contenders. Actually think about the 3rd/4th place play off. 10 of the previous golden boot winners won the playoff. The playoff can be more free flowing and less tense and tactical than the final. In this century there have b...