Posts

The Virtual Grand National

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For the Virtual Grand National you can see quite a big overround built into the win price (144% - fair is 100%), the overround on the place is not as big proportionally speaking (595% - fair is 500%).
Will this give us an opportunity to find value in the each way market?
First we have to decide how we believe the places are decided. For the win it is the consensus that the prices are fair.  A simulation/algorithm based on the horses form and strengths will determine the probability of each horse winning.  The prices will then directly represent this probability with a bit of margin built in.  This works.
For placing it is a bit more complicated. You can't have both a realistic simulation to generate the places probablities/prices and each way prices that represent the actual place price.
Here is how the racingpost describes the simulation: The simulation itself is made up of mathematical algorithms using data taken from the horses' previous performances. The race's outcome uses…

The Table Never Lies (or does it?)

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I was mostly motivated to write this article because of the Coronavirus and how it has affected the european league schedules. How do we complete the season in the fairest way? I have no answer to that, but it got me thinking along the track on the fairest, and most efficient way to identify the best team in the League.

It will also brings to light some other interesting bits related to some common cliches like "The table never lies", "luck evens itself out over the course of a full season".

So we run competitions to find who the BEST team is. The competition can have several different formats, for example cup knockout type or round robin league type or combinations of both (Champions League, MLS).  Whatever format though the intention is to find out the best team. Clearly some formats are better at doing this than others. For example the Cup format, one bad result will eliminate the best team - indeed even if a team is so strong that it wins 80% of its matches then …