FoG

So with the draw tomorrow I thought I would do a quick article. Team Bookie Rating Elo Ranking Pot 1 France 7/2 8 Germany 7/2 1 Spain 5/1 4 Belgium 9/1 10 England 12/1 7 Portugal 18/1 11 Pot 2 Italy 16/1 15 Croatia 25/1 17 Austria 40/1 21 Russia 66/1 24 Ukraine 66/1 16 Switzerland 80/1 18 Pot 3 Sweden 66/1 27 Poland 66/1 24 Czech Republic 70/1 29 Romania 125/1 32 Slovakia 200/1 33 Hungary 200/1 41 Pot 4 Turkey 66/1 19 Wales 66/1 45 Iceland 80/1 46 Ireland 100/1 26 Albania 300/1 60 N. Ireland 300/1 65 I have rearranged the order of the teams (you will mostly see them ranked in order of UEFA Coefficient). The new order based on the bookie's rating of the teams makes it easier to pick out the soft draws. I also include the ELO Ranking as its usually regarded as a more accurate rank ahead of the FIFA Ranking or the UEFA Coefficient. The bookie's make cart loads of cash and have banks of statistics to back up their odds so I tend to side wit

So William Hill are getting into the spirit of the Christmas Season. They are copying Paddy Power's promotion on the horses - giving money back as a free bet if your horse is second. The key differences between the William Hill offer and Paddy Power is that William Hill are only giving money back on your first qualifying bet. With Paddy Power you could pick two or three horses per race and hedge your bets.  The other major difference is that free bets dont earn free bets. With Paddy Power if your free bet runs in second then you got your free bet back again. With William Hill you will miss this opportunity. I found this offer very profitable under Paddy Power, and despite the added limitations with William Hill's version I still plan on making money off this. The new strategy will be. 1. Bet on the favourite in each race (provided he is 3/1 or under) - to earn money or a free bet if 2nd.  2. With free bets back 9/2 horses. See the table below based

Having already been barred from 888sport (story here ) and having pulled in over €2000 off paddy power (story here and here ) the online bookie's continue to get annoyed with me. Betway has now joined with 888sport in restricting my account and I am no longer eligible to receive promotions. Sports Casino eSports Vegas Poker Bingo We are contacting you today in regard to your Betway account - davidheaney. After a careful review by our senior trading team, we have taken the decision that your account davidheaney will no longer be eligible to receive any future promotions from Betway. This means that Bonuses, Free Bets, ex gratia payments, Best Odds Guaranteed or reward points will no longer be redeemable. This decision is final and will not be overturned but let us assure you this action has been taken only after much consideration by our senior trading team. Please note that you are welcome to continue using your account with us recreat

It started with €20 on Sergio Aguero for top scorer. Paddypower sucked me in with their clever advertising and promotions. I was hooked because of the free bet offer for every time Aguero scored a goal. Read the first part of the story here . That brought us up to about November. The story continues below. At the start of November Paddy Power launched a new App. And its everything that they say it is, quick and shiny - but that's not relevant here. There was a flurry of promotions in November to go with the launch. They ran my favourite horse promotion on one meeting every day in November and sometimes on three meetings in one day. With all this promo cash I made enough to buy a new sofa. One day I came in with 13 winners. One of my best days 13 winners, mostly favourites but finished off nicely with a 9/2 free bet pulling in an extra €112.50. Another I had all the winners in Plumpton: According to my strategy I had every 3/1 and lower backed at p

Hungary qualified tonight and with that result Ireland (if they qualify - 8/13 on Paddy Power) will be in Pot 4 for the EURO 2016 Group Stage draw. We will face three teams theoretically superior. So how will the Pots look if Ireland do qualify. Let's make the assumption that both Ukraine and Sweden who are ahead in their ties also qualify. Pot 1 France (host) Germany Spain England Portugal Belgium Pot 2 Italy Russia Switzerland  Austria Croatia Ukraine * Pot 3 Czech Republic Sweden ** Poland  Romania Slovakia Hungary Pot 4 Turkey Ireland *** Iceland Wales Albania N. Ireland * If Slovenia qualify then they join Pot 4. Turkey are promoted to Pot 3 and Czech are promoted to Pot 2. ** If Denmark qualify ahead of Sweden it won't change anything - they will slot into Pot 3 in the swedes place. *** If Bosnia qualify instead of Ireland then our hearts will break.

It started with Sergio Aguero for top scorer. For a €20 bet paddy power were offering a €2 free bet for each time he scored. It got me thinking that I could make my money back on the free €2 bets over the season (it would only take one 10/1 winning outcome). I could and should be in a position that I break even or make a small profit even if Aguero didn't finish top of the charts. I progressed onto other offers, a similar one for the GAA All Ireland Championships and the Rugby World Cup. Free bets offered on the Premier League games and at certain horse racing meetings daily. All the time breaking even or close to it with my real money bets and winning big here and there on my free bets. My emphasis was keeping risk to the minimum (betting on favourites all the time and very short odds like 1/2). The big wins on the free bets built up €35 here, €50 there. The winnings cancelled out the small losses made on betting on favourites and then some. I slowly let m

I don't know if anyone else has noticed these New App Power Plays that Paddy Power has been running this week, to launch their new mobile app. I missed the first day which saw Harry Kane enhanced from 4/6 to 3/1 to score any time versus Aston Villa. And he did. But I did get on the enhanced specials the next day and the days after, and the one after that! Ronaldo to score any time from 8/11 to 3/1 - €10 loss . Man Utd and Man City to both win from 3/1 to 6/1 - €60 profit . Lewandowsky to score from 8/11 to 2/1 - €20 profit . Bayern and Chelsea to win from 7/5 to 7/2 - €35 profit . Liverpool and Tottenham to win from 10/3 to 5/1 - €50 profit . Harry Kane to score first vs Anderlecht from 7/2 to 5/1 - €50 profit . For a total profit of €205 in three days. On the app at the moment is Rooney to score against West Brom at 5/2 from 4/5, and apparently these enhanced offers are going to continue for 30 days. These are crazy odds and with a simple heuristic I guess th