FoG

With one third of the season now complete for each team now is a good time to take stock. Every team has played everyone once - leaving the table looking like this: Team P W D L F A GD Pts Prob Shot % Save % SoTR TSR PDO Pyth HFA Dundalk 11 9 2 0 28 5 23 29 55% 34% 83% 73% 65% 1171 27.33 2.0 Shamrock Rovers 11 6 5 0 15 4 11 23 23% 23% 88% 67% 66% 1109 25.66 -0.4 Cork City 11 6 4 1 18 5 13 22 17% 35% 84% 63% 59% 1185 25.45 1.9 Bohemians 11 6 3 2 12 6 6 21 2% 27% 87% 48% 49% 1145 21.52 -1.0 St Patrick's Athletic 11 6 3 2 19 10 9 21 17% 27% 80% 59% 59% 1067 21.10 1.4 Longford Town FC 11 3 4 4 12 13 -1 13 0% 20% 80% 48% 47% 1003 14.27 0.2 Derry City 11 3 4 4 9 10 -1 13 0% 15% 79% 56% 53% 937 14.02 0.5 Galway United FC 11 3 0 8 12 21 -9 9 0% 26% 68% 42% 43% 937 9.74 0.3 Drogheda United 11 2 2 7 8 17 -9 8 0% 24% 76% 32% 37% 1000 8.14 0.0 Sligo Rovers 11 1 5 5 9 18 -9 8 0% 13% 68% 55% 56% 815 8.62 0.7 Bray Wanderers 11 2 1 8 8 25 -17 7 0% 31% 66% 26% 31% 970 5.48 0.8 ...

By comparing the difference between a team's average home goal difference and their average away goal difference we can see which teams gain the greatest advantage from playing at home. Most teams have played five home and five away this season. The results show that Cork and Galway have gained the biggest advantage from playing at home this season so far. Both of Galway's only wins came at home. Cork have been pretty solid at home until they were beaten by Dundalk on Friday. More interesting than that are the teams that have fared better on the road. It is expected that teams perform better at home - but what about Bohs and Shamrock Rovers. Shamrock Rovers home form is letting them down in a big way.  They have dropped points to Dundalk, Cork and Bohs at home - while winning all their away matches except Derry. You could argue that they had the tougher games at home - and this is true, for this season so far. But this is not a new trend. Shamrock Rovers home ...

Pythagorean Expectation for LoI Pythagorean expectation is a concept originally from baseball.  Bill James derived an equation that approximates the win percent based on runs allowed and runs made. win % = runs made  2 / (runs made  2  + runs allowed  2 ). It is a little more complex to apply to football, but some smart people have come up with different varieties of the equation that work very well for football to approximate points based on goals for and goals against. The one that I favour (for its relative simplicity) is copied below from here . Pts = Games Played * 2.74 (goals for 1.32 / [goals for 1.32  + goals against 1.32 ]) It can be applied to predict a teams points total for the end of a season. It can also be used to check how efficiently a team is converting their goals into points. The table so far for the League of Ireland is shown at the top. Most of the Pythagorean expectations are fairly accurate - although it do...

What is PDO? Simply PDO is [percent of shots faced that are saved] + [percent of shots taken which result in a goal]. Usually it is multiplied by 10 to remove decimal places for presentation. This is important in football because no matter the team (good or bad), their average PDO rarely strays outside a narrow band around the 1000 average. Any deviation from this band is usually put down to good luck for a high PDO, or bad luck for an unusually low PDO. This is hard to explain why this measure tends to bunch very closely around the average. It could have to do with good teams defending so high up the pitch (as the defenders become extra attackers) and this would affect the type of chances they allow their opponents. It could have something to do with good teams taking their foot off the pedal when they get comfortably in front. It could have something to do with poor teams defenders becoming so conditioned to defending that they don't give out any straight forward cha...

LoI LMS Last year I posted about the Paddy Power Last Man standing competition which was specific for the English Premiership. I have now discovered a new free  one for the League of Ireland with a prize of  € 200 . It is starting this coming weekend.  You need to play on your smart device - details are on their website here . My experience is that about 50% of players will fall in each round - so the winning plan really depends on the number of players entering.  In the English Premier League version of the competition it was likely that you would not have to pick every team but in the LoI (with less teams) it is quite likely that you will have to pick every team at least once. There are over 100 players already entered with still 3 days to the closing date and most people will leave it to the last minute. Also bear in mind that this tournament allows you to buy back in once. So lets assume that we will have to plan to win at least 12 rounds - i.e. ...

Another Friday passes in the League of Ireland and Dundalk, Cork and Shamrock Rovers all keep a clean sheet again.  All three teams are on only 1 goal conceded in 7 matches. If they can continue that rate then you could expect about 4 goals in their next 26. Is it possible that one of these teams can concede only 5 goals for an entire season? Last years best defense was Dundalk, conceding 24 goals. The chart below measures how well defenses have stymied the oppositions creativeness and for the times when the opposition did manage a break through, how well the last line handled the chance. Cork and Rovers (they share the same spot on the chart above) are the best last line with only 1 goal resulting from 43 shots created by their opposition. Dundalk edge it on defensive meanness allowing only an average of about 5 shots per match. Limerick are on the wrong end of the scale, allowing an average of 16 shots per match against, and not keeping a fair share of them out of the n...

Now that Bray have scored I can finally put up the attacking effectiveness scatter for the League of Ireland (see below).  This maps out the number of shots created per match versus the average number of shots per goal scored. You want to be in the top right quadrant - creating a lot of shots and  converting a fair amount of them. League of Ireland attacking effectiveness after 6 rounds. Dundalk and Cork are rising to the top on both scales.  This is showing in the League table too. Sligo Rovers numbers are absolutely extraordinary.  They have created more chances than all the top teams but their conversion rate is even worse than Bray (who took 6 matches before they actually scored a goal).   They almost fall off the scale on the chart above. Some more figures that I am following this season are in the table below. Team P W D L F A GD Pts Prob Shot % Save % SoTR TSR PDO Pyth Dundalk 5 5 0 0 11 0 11 15 40% 31% 100% 78% 67% 1314 13.70 Cork Cit...

Initially Pats were the bookie's outright favourite but their odds continued to lengthen in the run up to the season kickoff, to the point that I personally thought they were good value.  Knowing that they had Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers away in their first 3 matches and the potential for a slip up I opted to wait and  see if their odds would lengthen  even more. And they did.  They have gone from 5/2 to 7/2 which gives you an extra 40% back on your stake. Tough start to the season sees early favourites Pats drop out of favour with the bookies So what to think about that.  Well yes it was what I was hoping for but the degree at which they struggled against their two main rivals has me worried.  Against each of Dundalk and Rovers they only managed to create one shot on target.  Meanwhile Dundalk created 11 shots on target against them on the way to scoring 3 unanswered goals. On the other hand, the League of Ireland is traditionally very open...

PDO was a concept developed in Hockey and recently brought over to soccer analysis.  Simply it is a teams shots scored percentage plus their shots saved percentage.  This figure is usually multiplied by 1000 just for presentation, to remove decimal places.  (goals scored/shots on target + (1 -  goals conceded /shots on target faced)) * 1000 A high PDO means that you are either scoring a high proportion of your chances or stopping a high proportion of your opponents chances or both.  Either way a high score indicates you are performing well.  What the analytics people find interestesting about the PDO is that even the best teams cannot sustain a high PDO.  Studies show that short term peaks in PDO level out over a season.  "Normal" values of PDO range from about 980 to 1020 according to the research .  Values outside this range usually indicate that a team is over performing (or lucky) and their PDO is fully expected to regress to...

Dundalk host Cork City on the last game of the season in a classic game of Attack vs Defense.  Nobody has scored more goals than Dundalk (71), but Cork have the meanest defense (only 23 goals conceded this season). Dundalk have scored 20 goals more than Cork City this term, which might lead you to imagine that Dundalk are better finishers.  In fact both teams goals per shot conversion rate is very similar.  Both sets of forwards are doing an equally good job at finishing.  The key stat, however, in Dundalk's favour is the huge amount of shots that they create per match.  They have close to 14 shots per game which dwarfs Cork who don't even reach double digits on average.   Dundalk's creativity has been their main strength this season. Attacking Stats Dundalk vs Cork Chart:  Attacking stats for Cork vs Dundalk Looking further behind the stats - you see nothing special about the Cork team at first.  Their average shots created per game...

There is a mathematical probability distribution called the Poisson distribution.  It turns out that the Poisson model can be successful at predicting arrival rates, for example the number of cars arriving per red light cycle, number of customers arriving at a store per hour, number of claims received at an insurance company per day or number of goals scored by a football team per match .  All you need to know is the average, and from that you can calculate the probability. The formula has been around for centuries and is tried and tested.  Even the bookie's place some weight on it (you can read about Pinnacle Sports version of the Poisson here ). There is some significance in the Dundalk vs Cork City match in Oriel Park this Friday.  Lets calculate the home win/draw/away win probabilities for that match. The trick is in finding the average home goals and away goals to use in the formula.  We know that home field advantage plays a big part in football. ...

The final round of games in The Airtricity League are penned in for Fri 24th Oct.  It looks like a toss of a coin for top spot.  Cork City are 1 point clear, but Dundalk have home advantage as the top two teams meet on the last day.  There is excitement like this in no other league in Europe that I am aware of.   With seven months  remaining in the "better" leagues in Europe, the only excitement left is to see if Bayern (already 1/20 odds on favourite) will be crowned champions before Easter, or before Christmas.  Or whether Barca/Messi will win La Liga this season over Real/Ronaldo.   In the League of Ireland the tension is maintained throughout the season and right up to the final day.    Chart: Predictability based on Outright Odds from Paddypower  (19 Oct 2014) English Premier League followers had a treat in 2011/12 when Man City pipped Man Utd on goal difference on the last day.  However that was the exception t...