FoG

In fairness to Paddy Power they run some excellent promotions lately. One of my favourites is the Premier League In-play free bets.  Place GBP/EUR 20 or more in single bets before kick off on selected Premier League match live on Sky Sports 1 or BT Sport and get GBP/EUR 10 in free bets to use in play on that match. I have written articles about this before but this is an interesting take on the promo. It will guarantee you a profit on most games no matter the result. It works because our real money is backing short odds while your free money is backing the long shots. The bets chosen will cover ALL outcomes, to guarantee a profit. The first thing to notice is that either the favourite has to win to nil, or the underdog has to win to nil, or both teams score, or it ends in a nil-nil draw. There are no other possibilities in a football match. In most matches you will get suitable odds on the favourite to win to nil and both teams to score, so that you can proportion €20 ...

Edit: Read the terms and conditions very carefully on Paddypower. They can change the terms of this promotion, sometimes only offering money back if you're horse is 2nd to the SP favourite . This makes it much less likely that you will win a free bet - and more than likely means that this promotion is not worth playing. Paddy Power's new offer is money back  as a free bet if your horse finishes 2nd. They are offering this on one selected meeting per day. Is this offer profitable for the punter? The Strategy 1. Back all horses 3/1 and shorter - winning cash if your horse wins and a free bet if your horse is 2nd. 2. Back horses at around 9/2 with your free bets earned - this maximises your profits off your free bets. The Theory Let's make some assumptions. We will assume that the bookie has a 10% edge, i.e. on our real money bets we expect to win back just 90% in the long run. We will assume that a horses chance of placing (finishing first, second or third) ...

The third/fourth place play-off often is a meaningless affair. So lets put some meaning into it by putting some interesting bets. Check out Paddy Powers offer. Bet €20 and win €10 in free bets. We can make this work. Tip 1: Always put your real money bet on the most likely outcomes. There is two reasons for this really. 1. This gives you a more stable balance, winning a little a lot instead of winning a lot a little. You're less likely to deplete your bankroll waiting for your wins to come in. 2. The bookie's seem to offer better value on the favourites. See some analysis here . The promotion limits you to odds of 1/2 or higher. So we are looking for outcomes like: First Half Under 1.5 goals @ 1/2, Peru under 6 corners @ 1/2, Both teams to score @ 8/15. Pick as many bets like this as you like, so that the total real money staked makes €20. Tip 2: Always put your FREE bets on the long shots The bookie returns the winnings from the FREE bet only. They d...