Premier League Top Goalscorer

So I have this little app here Top Goalscorer Sim.

The Setup

It runs a sim on goals scored per player.  The "Midpoint" is the midpoint between the Buy and Sell on the Season Goals market on Sporting Index.  This is the last read value.  The market suspends some players after significant news like an injury or transfer.  Most reads are fairly up to date, but Cole Palmer for example could revise his expected down a little as I haven't had a clean read from the market since his injury.

So it then runs a little simulation for each player based on the average season goals expected.  I have added a dispersion factor also to add variation on some players.  

  • New transfers, a lot more variance on those as unsure if they will be automatic starters.  
  • Injury prone players, a lot more variance on those as well.  
  • And maybe penalty takers, or potential penalty takers could have some variance.  They could even have some kind of "dual" distribution where if they will be designated as penalty taker they could have two peaks.

Nailed players, with little history of injury and long established at penalty taking should be much more predictable.

The Analysis

So by playing around the sims I can find dispersion parameters that will match the top scorer market on betfair (while still matching the Buy/Sell Midpoint on Sporting Index)

The Conclusion

Gyokeres is second on sporting index, only Haaland has a bigger Buy/Sell. But Isak is shorter on betfair.  Furthermore, Salah and Joao Pedro though 3 and 5 goals behind him on sporting index are quite close to his betfair odds.  For this to make sense I have had to adjust his dispersion to 24.  Its quite high.  It does not make sense as a relatively new signing, from a different league.  Also there are questions over Saka's and Odegaard's fitness giving Gyokeres a chance to lay claim to penalties.  This could mean that Sporting Index are a little bit low on their lines or betfair is a little big on theirs.  It could also mean I am missing some inate characteristic about the lad that makes him that predictable/reliable.

Isak is expecting on average less goals per season than Salah, but he is a little shorter on betfair for Top Goalscorer.  To make this make sense I have given him quite a small k which means quite a lot of uncertainty.  I feel it makes sense here as a new striker with no preseason, with Ekitike already off to a good start.  There should be a big variation in his outcomes compared to Salah.  Even though it makes sense, could be the adjustment is too much?  For context the bigger you get for k the distribution matches Poisson, which is a widely accepted distribution for modelling things like goals in sports.  I think Isak adjustment is a little too much.  Also the adjustment for Salah does not make sense as I dont see much variation in his outcomes, his place is nailed, he is probably the most established penalty taker.  He should be at the higher end of predictability, he should have quite a high k.  

Maybe there is an overreaction on Isak to the positive transfer and he has been backed down to short on the exchange, there could be value in laying him.  Even Salah doesnt feel right with the adjustments I have had to make on him.  Is the move to Buy his goals on Sporting Index and/or lay a little on betfair.  Maybe opposing Salah in this market by backing Gyokeres as noted above or even Haaland.




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