FoG

Betway are offering a free €10 bet if you place 4 bets on in-play tennis, and a similar promotion on basketball. Read the terms on the website for which tournaments are eligible for this offer. The strategy here is: 1. Place 4 low risk bets at 1/2. 2. Use the free bet on horses priced around 9/2. We use 1/2 for our real money as the terms state this is the shortest eligible odds for the promo. There are two reasons that we go for the shortest odds - 1) its the minimum risk and 2) bookie's generally operate a lower edge on short odds. I have data and experience that suggests 9/2 is the best price for the free bet where your stake is not returned. An even shot wins you €10 about half the time (a €5 long term expectation), 9/2 wins you €45 about 2 times out of 11 (a €8 long term expectation). Detailed information on using free bets  here . The final numbers should see you staking €80 (4 by €10 on the tennis and the same on basketball) per day to win €20 in free bets.

Bosnia are beatable. Just ask Cyprus and Israel. They also have a poor record in play-offs having being sunk 6-2 by Portugal the last time.  All that said, it will be a tough tie and Bosnia probably hold a slight advantage - but lets stay optimistic!  If we do qualify then we don't want to make up the numbers and live through a repeat of the EURO 2012 disaster in Poland/Ukraine.  We know that the composition of the Pots will depend on the current UEFA co-efficient rankings and some positions are already decided. See here . The last final Pots will depend on the qualifiers from the playoffs. The chart top right shows the probable outlooks for next summer for Ireland based on bookie's odds. Pot 1 France (Hosts) Germany Spain England Portugal Belgium Italy Pot 2 Italy Russia Switzerland Austria Croatia Czech or Bosnia or Ukraine Pot 3 Maybe Ukraine or Czech Poland Romania Slovakia 2 or 3 of Sweden, Denmark, Turkey, Irela

Ireland will face one of Ukraine, Bosnia, Sweden and Hungary in the play off. Here is a quick profile of each team. Ireland UEFA   Rank: 23 FIFA Rank: 54 Finished 3rd behind Germany and Poland. How good can we be: 2015-10-08 Republic of Ireland 1-0 Germany (EURO Qualifier) 2014-10-14 Germany 1-1 Republic of Ireland (EURO Qualifier) 2013-05-29 England 1-1 Republic of Ireland (Friendly) 2014-05-31 Italy 0-0 Republic of Ireland (Friendly) 2014-11-18 Republic of Ireland 4-1 United States (Friendly) How bad can we be: 2013-09-10 Austria 1-0 Republic of Ireland (WC Qualifier) 2015-10-11 Poland 2-1 Republic of Ireland (EURO Qualifier) 2013-03-26 Republic of Ireland 2-2 Austria (WC Qualifier) 2014-05-25 Republic of Ireland 1-2 Turkey (Friendly) 2014-11-14 Scotland 1-0 Republic of Ireland (EURO Qualifier) Ukraine UEFA   Rank: 14 FIFA Rank: 24 Finished 3rd behind Spain and Slovakia. Prediction: Ireland have 44.53% chance of qualifying if drawn against Ukraine (see

There were plenty of twists and turns to see which teams would make the playoffs, and which ones would be seeded for the draw. All was finally decided with an obscure goal in Riga scored by Kazak star Islambek Kuat. This goal in combination with a 89th minute strike in Istanbul changed everything literally in the last minute. But now we are where we are and Ireland face one of the below seeded teams. FoG blog decided to do a little analysis to check Ireland's probability of winning the playoff against each team. Using Mathematical models we previously predicted the winner of the League of Ireland decider clash at the end of last season. We also predicted the Scottish win against Ireland last November. We used the Poisson model again and the results are below. There is not a huge difference in the teams - ranging from a 45% chance for Ireland to qualify if drawn against Ukraine to a 59% chance against Hungary. This is to be expected with all teams of ro

Now that Ireland are guaranteed at least a play off, we can turn our attention to our potential opposition.  The final UEFA coefficients are beginning to take shape to determine whether we could face Ukraine in a play off, or an easier prospect like Slovenia. It is important, because it can make a huge difference. seeding calculation are based on this work:  http://www.footballseeding.com/national-ranking-uefa/ Option 1: beat Poland To guarantee qualification Ireland need to beat Poland. Then we would go straight through without the need for a playoff. A high score draw would also do - anything 2-2 or above. Option 2: Draw with Poland A draw then Ireland would probably be unseeded and face one of Ukraine, Croatia, Bosnia or Sweden . Option 3: Draw with Poland and hope for a couple of favours. But if results did go our way then with a draw we could be seeded and face Albania, Slovenia, Turkey or Norway . For that to happen we would need both Norway to replace

Ireland are tied on points with Poland, both teams meeting in Poland in the last match.  This leaves Ireland with the following options: Beat Poland or a high score draw The easy way to qualify now is simply beat Poland or a 2-2 draw or higher. If the teams are level on points then it will go to head to head. Both teams drew 1-1 in Dublin already - so a 2-2 draw or higher would put Ireland through on away goals. Even in the case of a three way tie (if Germany lose against Georgia) 2-2 (or any draw in fact) would be enough for Ireland to qualify in 2nd based on the matches involving the three nations. A no score/low score draw A nil-nil would almost certainly mean Poland would be 2nd on the away goal they scored in Dublin. A one-one should put them second based on goal difference. So Ireland would likely be 3rd with a no score/low score draw. The one exception would be if Germany are beaten by Georgia then a three way tie would put Ireland ahead of Poland and actually in

Ireland play Germany in the Euro 2016 qualifiers - its now crunch time and a lot can be decided tomorrow depending on the result. 1. Knock the Scotts out The big prize for a win against the Germans would be that Scotland would be out of contention. Thus guaranteeing at least a play-off place for the Irish. Scotland are currently 4 points behind with a maximum of 6 points available to them in their final two games against Poland and Gibraltar. One more win for Ireland would guarantee that they couldn't be caught by the Scotts. http://www.livescore.com/soccer/euro/qualification-group-d/ 2. Automatic Qualification Automatic qualification is available to those teams that finish in 2nd place, or the best 3rd placed team. This means that automatic qualification is still in Ireland's own hands. A win against Germany would mean that Ireland would be no more than 2 points behind Poland going into their last match against Poland. Even if Ireland don't end up achieving