Pythagorean Expectation: League of Ireland
Pythagorean Expectation for LoI Pythagorean expectation is a concept originally from baseball. Bill James derived an equation that approximates the win percent based on runs allowed and runs made. win % = runs made 2 / (runs made 2 + runs allowed 2 ). It is a little more complex to apply to football, but some smart people have come up with different varieties of the equation that work very well for football to approximate points based on goals for and goals against. The one that I favour (for its relative simplicity) is copied below from here . Pts = Games Played * 2.74 (goals for 1.32 / [goals for 1.32 + goals against 1.32 ]) It can be applied to predict a teams points total for the end of a season. It can also be used to check how efficiently a team is converting their goals into points. The table so far for the League of Ireland is shown at the top. Most of the Pythagorean expectations are fairly accurate - although it do...