Tolerability of Risk
So I need to post this. To get it all out of my head and move on with my life. Been thinking/obsessing over this too long. (Sorry its about the Grand National or more generally horse fatalities). The only TWO things that matter are 1) What is the risk? 2) What is acceptable? The first part should be straight forward to obtain from stats. I expect a wide difference of opinion on the second but have some ideas on how to put it in some context. 1) What is the risk? So here it is from the great work done by horsepwr. https:// horsepwr.co.uk I will talk about Jump Racing because its what every one is talking about re. GN. I want to re-calculate the rate to a rate per horse per annum so that it is comparable to numbers I have found later in the thread. So it is 112 fatalities from 7,722 individual horses in one year. That is 1.45% or 145 in 10,000 per annum. 2) What is acceptable? I am going to pivot to humans for a minute. The HSE has this framework for "Tolerability of R