The Story of Martin Gale
Meet Martin Gale. He is a computer consultant and a family man. He lives with his Wife Shelly Gale and three children. They live in a nice house in the country and he has just bought Mrs Gale a brand new car. Life is good at the moment.
When the kids were young Mr Gale always made sure they wanted for nothing. He worked hard and saved hard to make sure they had the right clothes brands and the latest releases of their favourite video games.
Mr Gale loves his wife and always makes sure he gets something very special for her at Christmas and especially on her birthday. He is very good with his finances and makes sure that his bills are paid on time and saves religiously during the year to be able to take his family on their annual family summer holiday. They have had some great years - from London to Lisbon, from Paris to Portmarnock! It didn't matter where they went they always brought back special family memories.
Now the kids are getting older Mr Gale has more time and a little bit more money. Mr Gale is a life long Man Utd fan. He has always been interested in sports and has wondered for a long time about his betting "system". Now was a time that he could actually try it. Mrs Gale agreed and Mr Gale ring fenced €1000 to put aside for his new hobby.
He was going to be sensible and not too greedy, instead he intended to build up his winning slowly - beginning with small bets of €30 or €50 but sometimes a little more to make up the balance.
His strategy was simple and couldn't lose. He would bet on the favourite every week in the English Premier League. Favourite's mostly win - so he was always placing very low risk bets. For the weeks that the favourite didn't win Mr Gale increased his bet the next week to win back his losses. He would do this until the favourite wins again - which they eventually would. It is guaranteed.
And so he began on 17 Aug 2002. He found Man Utd at 1/5 against West Brom. He put €50 on this - and the result was an easy €10 profit. Let's track Mr Gale's bets in a table.
The first few weeks were straight forward wins for Utd, Arsenal and Utd again and meant a €10 weekly profit for Mr Gale. But then the inevitable happened and there was an upset. Bolton beat Man Utd. No problem, Mr Gale's plan was to make his losses back the next week and he did, Arsenal beat Charlton. This time he had to wager €113.75 so that his winnings would cancel out his €50 loss from the Bolton upset and continue his €10 weekly profit.
It was just a blip, and he had another blip when West Ham upset 4/7 odds on favourites Chelsea. Again though, the next week the favourite put him right back on track. To Mr Gale, these blips just proved to him that his system worked.
Then 26 Oct 2002 he was truly worried. Arsenal (his pick) had lost two weeks in a row now. He had lost €18.75 the first week, and he had wagered €129.17 the next week to try and make up the losses but again he lost. Now he had to put up a €533.82 bet on Liverpool to win against West Ham in order to make up his losses of the previous two weeks. This left his balance at a low €398.26 and he knew if Liverpool didn't win then he wouldn't have enough money left to make up the next week.
Liverpool 2-0. Thank you Michael Owen!
Mr Gale was truly relieved. He didn't tell his wife how close it was but reveled in showing her the €700+ winning bet receipt. She was impressed.
That was that, he had gotten over the hump. Two favourites losing in a row had been unlucky but again his system worked and he was back on track. He continued, sometimes the favourite lost, but he always made it up the next week or the week after and maintained his €10 weekly profit.
By 27 Sep 2003 he was up to over €400 pure profit but then he hit his first problem. See table below.
This time when Man Utd lost to Fulham he had 3 favourites lose in a row. He had seen this before though. He just needed to find the money to make one more bet and his system would put his profits back on track. The problem was that his initial bank roll had been depleted by the 3 consecutive losses. He had to call in a few favours from his mates down the pub and he scraped the €1167.56 that he was short. Again he was putting his faith in Man Utd who had just let him down as they faced Portsmouth this time in Nov 2003. He could not have been more nervous but his system had pulled him through before. He need not have worried at all as Utd strolled to an easy 3-0 win and Mr Gale collected his biggest winnings yet of over €2000! He was very popular down at the pub that weekend. It had now been a year that he was using his system and he had maintained his weekly overall profit and was now up to the tune of €480 on his initial balance.
The next number of months ran smoothly. No scares for the rest of the Winter or the Spring for that matter. Then he hit a small streak of losses in May 2004. He had no favours left to call in this time from his mates. He had to face his wife and explain to her that he had to cancel her Birthday gift that year - they had organised a mini vacation to Rome but Mr Gale this time was €1500 short to keep his system going.
He explained to his wife that if he didn't make the bet that he would be facing a loss of over €600. He had told her that Arsenal had not lost a single match all season and this last match would make history if they beat Leicester. They will win. She loves him, she didn't understand but she helped him out. It was just a matter of deferring the trip because he would pay her back as soon as the win came in. And it did. Arsenal got Mr Gale out of jail and became the first team to go unbeaten for an entire Premier League Season!
The months and years went by and Mr Gale got more and more confidence in his system. By Christmas 2006 he was up over €1500 in profits! To celebrate he bought a huge ring for Mrs Gale for her Christmas present. The two were never happier. Mrs Gale was glad that he was enjoying his little hobby. And even more glad that he was lavishing her with gifts!
But then it went crunch. In January Mr Gale was bringing back the ring and he was selling his wife's 4 year old car.
This time his losing streak meant that he needed a whopping €12,000 to regain his losses. How could Chelsea have thrown away a 2-1 lead against Fulham in the last 10 minutes. They were 1/7 odds on to win! He lost €2,000 on that bet. This was when Mr Gale had to tell his wife that he was selling her new ring and her car too. He was down to €190. If he stopped now it would have been a huge loss from his initial €1000 bank roll. He had to continue. And how he did cheer every single one of Chelsea's 4 goals against Wigan. That day he went down to the Tattoo parlour and got Lampard, Robben, Kirkland (og) and Drogba inked on his shoulder! The bet paid out €14,577.38 for him. He even got his picture in the local paper for his extraordinary winnings. He immediately bought back his wife's car. He thought all was right in the world again. But his wife was starting to feel increasingly frustrated over his behaviour.
Man Utd failed to beat Middlesborough, Chelsea failed to beat Bolton, Reading were beaten by lowly Watford. This time Mr Gale had to sell his wife's car again, just 6 months after he had bought it back for her. He needed the cash to back Liverpool at home against Charton. He was devastated when Charlton thanks to Matt Holland pulled off an unexpected draw. Even a last minute penalty by Harry Kewel couldn't save him. He had lost the car.
Now, he had lost over €3000 and needed over €20,000 to make it up. When he sold the house, this was the last straw for Mrs Gale. It was a long cold summer while Mr Gale waited for the first game of the next season to try and chase his losses.
Mr Gale was celebrating on his own when Michael Essien scored the winner that saw him pick up his €25,000 payout.
He had a successful season for the rest of 2007/08 but then early in the new season another run of bad luck came his way. The strongest favourites for 4 weeks in a row failed to win again - Chelsea, Newcastle, Liverpool and Arsenal.
Mr Gale was almost a broken man. The only thing that had not let him down though was his system. It always came good in the end. In fact it was guaranteed. The favourite is always going to win again eventually. This time selling the house wasn't as hard for him to do. He needed to down size anyway. It was too big of a house to be living alone in. He was €1000 in the hole and needed another €10,000 to get back on track.
Since then Mr Gale has had a nice run of things except for a relatively minor blip in 2010 when Arsenal, then Liverpool and then Man Utd failed to win. He hasn't had to sell any more cars or houses. As of 10 May 2014 he is up to a balance of €5290. That represents a €4000+ profit over the 12 years or so since he started his hobby.
His wife and kids no longer talk to him. He let them down too badly. At first it was all about the cars and house he sold from under them. But in the end as they tried to help him - he couldn't bear the way that they treated him as if he had a problem. He didn't like being treated as a sympathy case. Everything ended unceremoniously.
Mr Gale now drives an old second hand car and lives alone in a down sized town house but continues to make a weekly €10 profit betting on the Premier League.
Full history of Mr Gale's "winning strategy" is here.
Here is a graph of Mr Gales's upward-ish trend from 2002 to May 2014.
(All characters and events in this story are fictional to illustrate a point, but based on actual football results and actual odds as collected by Football-data.co.uk.)
When the kids were young Mr Gale always made sure they wanted for nothing. He worked hard and saved hard to make sure they had the right clothes brands and the latest releases of their favourite video games.
Mr Gale loves his wife and always makes sure he gets something very special for her at Christmas and especially on her birthday. He is very good with his finances and makes sure that his bills are paid on time and saves religiously during the year to be able to take his family on their annual family summer holiday. They have had some great years - from London to Lisbon, from Paris to Portmarnock! It didn't matter where they went they always brought back special family memories.
Now the kids are getting older Mr Gale has more time and a little bit more money. Mr Gale is a life long Man Utd fan. He has always been interested in sports and has wondered for a long time about his betting "system". Now was a time that he could actually try it. Mrs Gale agreed and Mr Gale ring fenced €1000 to put aside for his new hobby.
He was going to be sensible and not too greedy, instead he intended to build up his winning slowly - beginning with small bets of €30 or €50 but sometimes a little more to make up the balance.
His strategy was simple and couldn't lose. He would bet on the favourite every week in the English Premier League. Favourite's mostly win - so he was always placing very low risk bets. For the weeks that the favourite didn't win Mr Gale increased his bet the next week to win back his losses. He would do this until the favourite wins again - which they eventually would. It is guaranteed.
And so he began on 17 Aug 2002. He found Man Utd at 1/5 against West Brom. He put €50 on this - and the result was an easy €10 profit. Let's track Mr Gale's bets in a table.
| Week | Match | Bet | Starting Balance | Desired Profit | Bet placed | Potential Payout | Balance | Actual profit | Final Balance | ||||
| 17 Aug 2002 | Man Utd | 1 | 0 | West Brom | Man Utd | 1/5 | 1000.00 | 10.00 | 50.00 | 60.00 | 950.00 | 10.00 | 1010.00 |
| 24 Aug 2002 | Arsenal | 5 | 2 | West Brom | Arsenal | 1/6 | 1010.00 | 10.00 | 59.99 | 69.99 | 950.01 | 10.00 | 1020.00 |
| 31 Aug 2002 | Man Utd | 1 | 0 | Middlesbrough | Man Utd | 1/3 | 1020.00 | 10.00 | 30.00 | 40.00 | 990.00 | 10.00 | 1030.00 |
| 7 Sep 2002 | Man Utd | 0 | 1 | Bolton | Man Utd | 1/5 | 1030.00 | 10.00 | 50.00 | 60.00 | 980.00 | -50.00 | 980.00 |
| 14 Sep 2002 | Charlton | 0 | 3 | Arsenal | Arsenal | 8/13 | 980.00 | 70.00 | 113.75 | 183.75 | 866.25 | 70.00 | 1050.00 |
| 21 Sep 2002 | Arsenal | 2 | 1 | Bolton | Arsenal | 1/5 | 1050.00 | 10.00 | 50.00 | 60.00 | 1000.00 | 10.00 | 1060.00 |
| 28 Sep 2002 | Chelsea | 2 | 3 | Wet Ham | Chelsea | 4/7 | 1060.00 | 10.00 | 17.50 | 27.50 | 1042.50 | -17.50 | 1042.50 |
| 5 Oct 2002 | Arsenal | 3 | 1 | Sunderland | Arsenal | 1/6 | 1042.50 | 37.50 | 224.96 | 262.46 | 817.54 | 37.50 | 1080.00 |
| 19 Oct 2002 | Everton | 2 | 1 | Arsenal | Arsenal | 8/15 | 1080.00 | 10.00 | 18.75 | 28.75 | 1061.25 | -18.75 | 1061.25 |
| 26 Oct 2002 | Arsenal | 1 | 2 | Blackburn | Arsenal | 3/10 | 1061.25 | 38.75 | 129.17 | 167.92 | 932.08 | -129.17 | 932.08 |
| 2 Nov 2002 | Liverpool | 2 | 0 | Wet Ham | Liverpool | 1/3 | 932.08 | 177.92 | 533.82 | 711.74 | 398.26 | 177.92 | 1110.00 |
The first few weeks were straight forward wins for Utd, Arsenal and Utd again and meant a €10 weekly profit for Mr Gale. But then the inevitable happened and there was an upset. Bolton beat Man Utd. No problem, Mr Gale's plan was to make his losses back the next week and he did, Arsenal beat Charlton. This time he had to wager €113.75 so that his winnings would cancel out his €50 loss from the Bolton upset and continue his €10 weekly profit.
It was just a blip, and he had another blip when West Ham upset 4/7 odds on favourites Chelsea. Again though, the next week the favourite put him right back on track. To Mr Gale, these blips just proved to him that his system worked.
Then 26 Oct 2002 he was truly worried. Arsenal (his pick) had lost two weeks in a row now. He had lost €18.75 the first week, and he had wagered €129.17 the next week to try and make up the losses but again he lost. Now he had to put up a €533.82 bet on Liverpool to win against West Ham in order to make up his losses of the previous two weeks. This left his balance at a low €398.26 and he knew if Liverpool didn't win then he wouldn't have enough money left to make up the next week.
Liverpool 2-0. Thank you Michael Owen!
Mr Gale was truly relieved. He didn't tell his wife how close it was but reveled in showing her the €700+ winning bet receipt. She was impressed.
That was that, he had gotten over the hump. Two favourites losing in a row had been unlucky but again his system worked and he was back on track. He continued, sometimes the favourite lost, but he always made it up the next week or the week after and maintained his €10 weekly profit.
By 27 Sep 2003 he was up to over €400 pure profit but then he hit his first problem. See table below.
| Week | Match | Bet | Starting Balance | Desired Profit | Bet placed | Potential Payout | Balance | Actual profit | Final Balance | ||||
| 27 Sep 2003 | Chelsea | 1 | 0 | Aston Villa | Chelsea | 1/3 | 1410.00 | 10.00 | 30.00 | 40.00 | 1380.00 | 10.00 | 1420.00 |
| 4 Oct 2003 | Man Utd | 3 | 0 | Birmingham City | Man Utd | 3/10 | 1420.00 | 10.00 | 33.33 | 43.33 | 1386.67 | 10.00 | 1430.00 |
| 11 Oct 2003 | Birmingham City | 0 | 0 | Chelsea | Chelsea | 5/7 | 1430.00 | 10.00 | 14.00 | 24.00 | 1416.00 | -14.00 | 1416.00 |
| 18 Oct 2003 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | Wolves | Fulham | 4/7 | 1416.00 | 34.00 | 59.50 | 93.50 | 1356.50 | -59.50 | 1356.50 |
| 25 Oct 2003 | Man Utd | 1 | 3 | Fulham | Man Utd | 1/4 | 1356.50 | 103.50 | 414.01 | 517.51 | 942.49 | -414.01 | 942.49 |
| 1 Nov 2003 | Man Utd | 3 | 0 | Portsmouth | Man Utd | 1/4 | 942.49 | 527.51 | 2110.04 | 2637.56 | -1167.56 | 527.51 | 1470.00 |
| 8 Nov 2003 | Arsenal | 2 | 1 | Tottenham | Arsenal | 2/5 | 1470.00 | 10.00 | 25.00 | 35.00 | 1445.00 | 10.00 | 1480.00 |
This time when Man Utd lost to Fulham he had 3 favourites lose in a row. He had seen this before though. He just needed to find the money to make one more bet and his system would put his profits back on track. The problem was that his initial bank roll had been depleted by the 3 consecutive losses. He had to call in a few favours from his mates down the pub and he scraped the €1167.56 that he was short. Again he was putting his faith in Man Utd who had just let him down as they faced Portsmouth this time in Nov 2003. He could not have been more nervous but his system had pulled him through before. He need not have worried at all as Utd strolled to an easy 3-0 win and Mr Gale collected his biggest winnings yet of over €2000! He was very popular down at the pub that weekend. It had now been a year that he was using his system and he had maintained his weekly overall profit and was now up to the tune of €480 on his initial balance.
The next number of months ran smoothly. No scares for the rest of the Winter or the Spring for that matter. Then he hit a small streak of losses in May 2004. He had no favours left to call in this time from his mates. He had to face his wife and explain to her that he had to cancel her Birthday gift that year - they had organised a mini vacation to Rome but Mr Gale this time was €1500 short to keep his system going.
| Week | Match | Bet | Starting Balance | Desired Profit | Bet placed | Potential Payout | Balance | Actual profit | Final Balance | ||||
| 20 Mar 2004 | Arsenal | 2 | 1 | Bolton | Arsenal | 2/9 | 1630.00 | 10.00 | 45.00 | 55.00 | 1585.00 | 10.00 | 1640.00 |
| 27 Mar 2004 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | Wolves | Chelsea | 1/4 | 1640.00 | 10.00 | 40.00 | 50.00 | 1600.00 | 10.00 | 1650.00 |
| 3 Apr 2004 | Newcastle Utd | 4 | 2 | Everton | Newcastle | 8/13 | 1650.00 | 10.00 | 16.25 | 26.25 | 1633.75 | 10.00 | 1660.00 |
| 10 Apr 2004 | Man Utd | 1 | 0 | Leicester City | Man Utd | 2/7 | 1660.00 | 10.00 | 35.00 | 45.00 | 1625.00 | 10.00 | 1670.00 |
| 17 Apr 2004 | Man Utd | 2 | 0 | Charlton | Man Utd | 2/5 | 1670.00 | 10.00 | 25.00 | 35.00 | 1645.00 | 10.00 | 1680.00 |
| 24 Apr 2004 | Birmingham City | 2 | 2 | Wolves | Birmingham | 11/18 | 1680.00 | 10.00 | 16.36 | 26.36 | 1663.64 | -16.36 | 1663.64 |
| 1 May 2004 | Arsenal | 0 | 0 | Birmingham City | Arsenal | 4/11 | 1663.64 | 36.36 | 100.01 | 136.37 | 1563.63 | -100.01 | 1563.63 |
| 8 May 2004 | Newcastle Utd | 1 | 1 | Wolves | Newcastle | 3/10 | 1563.63 | 146.37 | 487.92 | 634.29 | 1075.71 | -487.92 | 1075.71 |
| 15 May 2004 | Arsenal | 2 | 1 | Leicester City | Arsenal | 1/4 | 1075.71 | 644.29 | 2577.16 | 3221.45 | -1501.45 | 644.29 | 1720.00 |
He explained to his wife that if he didn't make the bet that he would be facing a loss of over €600. He had told her that Arsenal had not lost a single match all season and this last match would make history if they beat Leicester. They will win. She loves him, she didn't understand but she helped him out. It was just a matter of deferring the trip because he would pay her back as soon as the win came in. And it did. Arsenal got Mr Gale out of jail and became the first team to go unbeaten for an entire Premier League Season!
The months and years went by and Mr Gale got more and more confidence in his system. By Christmas 2006 he was up over €1500 in profits! To celebrate he bought a huge ring for Mrs Gale for her Christmas present. The two were never happier. Mrs Gale was glad that he was enjoying his little hobby. And even more glad that he was lavishing her with gifts!
But then it went crunch. In January Mr Gale was bringing back the ring and he was selling his wife's 4 year old car.
| Week | Match | Bet | Starting Balance | Desired Profit | Bet placed | Potential Payout | Balance | Actual profit | Final Balance | ||||
| 2 Dec 2006 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 2 | Man Utd | Man Utd | 4/7 | 2560.00 | 10.00 | 17.50 | 27.50 | 2542.50 | 10.00 | 2570.00 |
| 9 Dec 2006 | Chelsea | 1 | 0 | Newcastle Utd | Chelsea | 1/5 | 2570.00 | 10.00 | 50.00 | 60.00 | 2520.00 | 10.00 | 2580.00 |
| 16 Dec 2006 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | Portsmouth | Arsenal | 2/5 | 2580.00 | 10.00 | 25.00 | 35.00 | 2555.00 | -25.00 | 2555.00 |
| 23 Dec 2006 | Chelsea | 2 | 2 | Reading | Chelsea | 2/11 | 2555.00 | 45.00 | 247.52 | 292.52 | 2307.48 | -247.52 | 2307.48 |
| 30 Dec 2006 | Chelsea | 2 | 2 | Fulham | Chelsea | 1/7 | 2307.48 | 302.52 | 2117.04 | 2419.56 | 190.44 | -2117.04 | 190.44 |
| 13 Jan 2007 | Chelsea | 4 | 0 | Wigan | Chelsea | 1/5 | 190.44 | 2429.56 | 12147.81 | 14577.38 | -11957.38 | 2429.56 | 2620.00 |
This time his losing streak meant that he needed a whopping €12,000 to regain his losses. How could Chelsea have thrown away a 2-1 lead against Fulham in the last 10 minutes. They were 1/7 odds on to win! He lost €2,000 on that bet. This was when Mr Gale had to tell his wife that he was selling her new ring and her car too. He was down to €190. If he stopped now it would have been a huge loss from his initial €1000 bank roll. He had to continue. And how he did cheer every single one of Chelsea's 4 goals against Wigan. That day he went down to the Tattoo parlour and got Lampard, Robben, Kirkland (og) and Drogba inked on his shoulder! The bet paid out €14,577.38 for him. He even got his picture in the local paper for his extraordinary winnings. He immediately bought back his wife's car. He thought all was right in the world again. But his wife was starting to feel increasingly frustrated over his behaviour.
For poor Mr Gale it wasn't long again until he was to hit another losing streak. This time the worst streak since he started 5 years ago in 2002. He had 4 loses in a row.
| Week | Match | Bet | Starting Balance | Desired Profit | Bet placed | Potential Payout | Balance | Actual profit | Final Balance | ||||
| 20 Jan 2007 | Aston Villa | 2 | 0 | Watford | Aston Villa | 4/7 | 2620.00 | 10.00 | 17.50 | 27.50 | 2602.50 | 10.00 | 2630.00 |
| 27 Jan 2007 | Man Utd | 4 | 0 | Watford | Man Utd | 1/7 | 2630.00 | 10.00 | 69.98 | 79.98 | 2560.02 | 10.00 | 2640.00 |
| 3 Feb 2007 | Charlton | 0 | 1 | Chelsea | Chelsea | 4/11 | 2640.00 | 10.00 | 27.50 | 37.50 | 2612.50 | 10.00 | 2650.00 |
| 10 Feb 2007 | Man Utd | 2 | 0 | Charlton | Man Utd | 1/7 | 2650.00 | 10.00 | 69.98 | 79.98 | 2580.02 | 10.00 | 2660.00 |
| 17 Feb 2007 | Everton | 1 | 2 | Tottenham | Everton | 13/10 | 2660.00 | 10.00 | 7.69 | 17.69 | 2652.31 | -7.69 | 2652.31 |
| 24 Feb 2007 | Liverpool | 4 | 0 | Sheffield Utd | Liverpool | 3/10 | 2652.31 | 27.69 | 92.31 | 120.00 | 2560.00 | 27.69 | 2680.00 |
| 3 Mar 2007 | Arsenal | 2 | 1 | Reading | Arsenal | 1/2 | 2680.00 | 10.00 | 20.00 | 30.00 | 2660.00 | 10.00 | 2690.00 |
| 10 Mar 2007 | Man City | 0 | 1 | Chelsea | Chelsea | 1/2 | 2690.00 | 10.00 | 20.00 | 30.00 | 2670.00 | 10.00 | 2700.00 |
| 17 Mar 2007 | Chelsea | 3 | 0 | Sheffield Utd | Chelsea | 1/6 | 2700.00 | 10.00 | 59.99 | 69.99 | 2640.01 | 10.00 | 2710.00 |
| 31 Mar 2007 | Man Utd | 4 | 1 | Blackburn | Man Utd | 1/3 | 2710.00 | 10.00 | 30.00 | 40.00 | 2680.00 | 10.00 | 2720.00 |
| 7 Apr 2007 | Arsenal | 0 | 1 | Wet Ham | Arsenal | 2/5 | 2720.00 | 10.00 | 25.00 | 35.00 | 2695.00 | -25.00 | 2695.00 |
| 14 Apr 2007 | Man Utd | 2 | 0 | Sheffield Utd | Man Utd | 1/7 | 2695.00 | 45.00 | 314.91 | 359.91 | 2380.09 | 45.00 | 2740.00 |
| 21 Apr 2007 | Man Utd | 1 | 1 | Middlesbrough | Man Utd | 1/5 | 2740.00 | 10.00 | 50.00 | 60.00 | 2690.00 | -50.00 | 2690.00 |
| 28 Apr 2007 | Chelsea | 2 | 2 | Bolton | Chelsea | 2/7 | 2690.00 | 70.00 | 245.01 | 315.01 | 2444.99 | -245.01 | 2444.99 |
| 5 May 2007 | Reading | 0 | 2 | Watford | Reading | 2/5 | 2444.99 | 325.01 | 812.53 | 1137.54 | 1632.46 | -812.53 | 1632.46 |
| 12 May 2007 | Liverpool | 2 | 2 | Charlton | Liverpool | 4/11 | 1632.46 | 1147.54 | 3156.06 | 4303.60 | -1523.60 | -3156.06 | -1523.60 |
| 11 Aug 2007 | Chelsea | 3 | 2 | Birmingham City | Chelsea | 1/5 | -1523.60 | 4313.60 | 21568.01 | 25881.61 | -23091.61 | 4313.60 | 2790.00 |
Man Utd failed to beat Middlesborough, Chelsea failed to beat Bolton, Reading were beaten by lowly Watford. This time Mr Gale had to sell his wife's car again, just 6 months after he had bought it back for her. He needed the cash to back Liverpool at home against Charton. He was devastated when Charlton thanks to Matt Holland pulled off an unexpected draw. Even a last minute penalty by Harry Kewel couldn't save him. He had lost the car.
Now, he had lost over €3000 and needed over €20,000 to make it up. When he sold the house, this was the last straw for Mrs Gale. It was a long cold summer while Mr Gale waited for the first game of the next season to try and chase his losses.
Mr Gale was celebrating on his own when Michael Essien scored the winner that saw him pick up his €25,000 payout.
He had a successful season for the rest of 2007/08 but then early in the new season another run of bad luck came his way. The strongest favourites for 4 weeks in a row failed to win again - Chelsea, Newcastle, Liverpool and Arsenal.
| Week | Match | Bet | Starting Balance | Desired Profit | Bet placed | Potential Payout | Balance | Actual profit | Final Balance | ||||
| 23 Aug 2008 | Liverpool | 2 | 1 | Middlesbrough | Liverpool | 4/11 | 3140.00 | 10.00 | 27.50 | 37.50 | 3112.50 | 10.00 | 3150.00 |
| 30 Aug 2008 | Chelsea | 1 | 1 | Tottenham | Chelsea | 2/5 | 3150.00 | 10.00 | 25.00 | 35.00 | 3125.00 | -25.00 | 3125.00 |
| 13 Sep 2008 | Newcastle Utd | 1 | 2 | Hull City | Newcastle | 5/8 | 3125.00 | 45.00 | 72.00 | 117.00 | 3053.00 | -72.00 | 3053.00 |
| 20 Sep 2008 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | Stoke City | Liverpool | 1/5 | 3053.00 | 127.00 | 635.00 | 762.00 | 2418.00 | -635.00 | 2418.00 |
| 27 Sep 2008 | Arsenal | 1 | 2 | Hull City | Arsenal | 1/5 | 2418.00 | 772.00 | 3860.00 | 4632.00 | -1442.00 | -3860.00 | -1442.00 |
| 4 Oct 2008 | Chelsea | 2 | 0 | Aston Villa | Chelsea | 1/2 | -1442.00 | 4642.00 | 9284.00 | 13926.00 | -10726.00 | 4642.00 | 3200.00 |
Mr Gale was almost a broken man. The only thing that had not let him down though was his system. It always came good in the end. In fact it was guaranteed. The favourite is always going to win again eventually. This time selling the house wasn't as hard for him to do. He needed to down size anyway. It was too big of a house to be living alone in. He was €1000 in the hole and needed another €10,000 to get back on track.
Since then Mr Gale has had a nice run of things except for a relatively minor blip in 2010 when Arsenal, then Liverpool and then Man Utd failed to win. He hasn't had to sell any more cars or houses. As of 10 May 2014 he is up to a balance of €5290. That represents a €4000+ profit over the 12 years or so since he started his hobby.
His wife and kids no longer talk to him. He let them down too badly. At first it was all about the cars and house he sold from under them. But in the end as they tried to help him - he couldn't bear the way that they treated him as if he had a problem. He didn't like being treated as a sympathy case. Everything ended unceremoniously.
Mr Gale now drives an old second hand car and lives alone in a down sized town house but continues to make a weekly €10 profit betting on the Premier League.
Full history of Mr Gale's "winning strategy" is here.
Here is a graph of Mr Gales's upward-ish trend from 2002 to May 2014.
(All characters and events in this story are fictional to illustrate a point, but based on actual football results and actual odds as collected by Football-data.co.uk.)
Comment here!
ReplyDelete