Continental Shift

The highest ever scoring semi final was followed by the lowest ever scoring semi final when Argentina drew 0-0 with Netherlands.  Argentina finally went through in a record equalling fourth penalty shootout of the tournament.  The result sets up a great battle between the two dominant continents - with Germany representing Europe against Argentina representing South America.
 Winning Continent probability by date.  Probability calculated based on odds 
offered by bookmakers.

 It always looked likely that the title would be destined for South America or Europe from the start.  Mexico, USA and Costa Rica gave slight hope to the CONCACAF group for a short period with all three teams unexpectedly qualifying for the last 16 and Costa Rica going one better.  Asia was the first continent for all teams to be eliminated with no team making it past the first round.  South America started off slight favourites but when Brazil fell and when Germany impressed the pendulum swung in favour of Europe.  If a European team do win then it will be the first time that would happen on South American soil.  The Argentina result tonight has closed the gap to Europe.

 Another interesting battle to watch is the battle for top scorer.  With a player already out of the competition topping this one.
Top Scorer probability by date.  Probability calculated based on odds offered by bookmakers.
Neymar emerged from the groups as strong favourite looking like 6/4 or about 40% likely to be the highest scorer.  He slowly slipped back as Brazil failed to impress and he failed to get on the score sheet and then dropped out of the running with an unfortunate injury.  James Rodriguez became clear favourite and on the 7th June and as the other contenders failed to score.  Messi and Muller still have a game in them to change things but it looks too late.  Muller may be regretting not joining in a little more in the scoring procession in the semi final against Brazil where Schurle took one off his toe.

The top spot on the FIFA rankings is also up for grabs and Argentina and Germany will battle this one out.  It is too tight to call and most likely this award will go to the eventual champions.

Rnkteampts
1Argentina1674
2Germany1652
3Colombia1492
4Netherlands1413
5Belgium1401
6Uruguay1329
7Brazil1286


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