Simple Betting Strategies
The pre-season friendlies are already in full swing and the countdown to new season has well and truly begun. Over the next few weeks I want to explore some betting strategies. So when Aug 16 comes around and the English Premier League kicks off, we will be well informed of our betting options!
Football-data.co.uk have the match results and match odds freely available for all English Premier League matches from 2001/02 season. I imported the Bet365 odds that they collected and results into my database to let me carry out some analysis on them. This allows me to test some betting strategies without costing me a penny.
The first simple strategy (Strategy 1) considered is to always bet on the favourite. To test this, for each week I picked the match with the shortest odds and placed a notional stake on that match. In each of these experiments I am only placing a bet of €1 per match.
The second simple strategy (Strategy 2) I considered was the total opposite, this time I went with the longest odds bet per week.
By far and away the best long term strategy was to plump for the favourite each time - but even this was a loser in the long term.
The table below gives an example of both Strategies and how they panned out last season in the Premier League. Strategy 2 actually posts a profit but this is based on just 4 winning bets. This is not enough results to draw a conclusive conclusion. However, the thing that I like about Strategy 2 is that the money that you win on winning weeks has at least the potential to make a positive difference to your week. The 20 or 30 cent that you consistently win on the Strategy 1 will probably end up in that huge jar in your bed room that is full of coppers - may as well be in the bin.
The table further below shows a more accurate reality. In the long term both strategies are doomed to failure, with Strategy 2, although still more appealing in some ways the biggest loser mathematically. It seems that the bookies are under no pressure to offer good value on the underdog.
This in a way reflects our attitude to money and illustrate the concept of the diminishing utility of money. The more money you have the less useful it is. The euro at the top of your stack is not as important as the euro at the bottom. €100 euro is not always worth 100 times €1. First our income goes on important things like food, then rent/mortgage, then clothes. The money that buys these things is worth alot to us. After that we spend on things we enjoy, a day at the movies, a nice meal. These things are still worth alot to us, but we can still live without them. And finally the money at the top of the stack - this is the change that we throw on the table without counting it when we tip at a restaurant, the change that slips under the couch, the change from the store that we toss into the charity bucket on the way out. This money doesn't really have any life changing potential - it's almost worthless. But if we could turn this money into €20 or €30, it still might not have life changing potential but it could turn a dreary weekend toiling in the kitchen into a relaxing night in with a feast from the local chip shop! It doesn't really matter if it is €20 or €30, so it doesn't really matter if its 20/1 or 30/1 - in a way its worth the same. This is why I imagine that bookie's are not under pressure to offer value on the underdog. Although they have no long term value to us, we still take a punt on them.
The Strategies when applied to the Spanish La Liga come up with very similar results.
So it looks like so far our options are
1. to lose money slowly put your money on the biggest foregone conclusion each week.
2. to get rid of that pesky change jangling in your pocket, throw €1 or €2 on the biggest under dog each week and enjoy maybe 2 or 3 meals out during the year.
3. buy a jar and throw your change in here each week, at the end of the season put it towards a weekend break some where.
4. come up with a new betting strategy.
Football-data.co.uk have the match results and match odds freely available for all English Premier League matches from 2001/02 season. I imported the Bet365 odds that they collected and results into my database to let me carry out some analysis on them. This allows me to test some betting strategies without costing me a penny.
The first simple strategy (Strategy 1) considered is to always bet on the favourite. To test this, for each week I picked the match with the shortest odds and placed a notional stake on that match. In each of these experiments I am only placing a bet of €1 per match.
The second simple strategy (Strategy 2) I considered was the total opposite, this time I went with the longest odds bet per week.
By far and away the best long term strategy was to plump for the favourite each time - but even this was a loser in the long term.
The table below gives an example of both Strategies and how they panned out last season in the Premier League. Strategy 2 actually posts a profit but this is based on just 4 winning bets. This is not enough results to draw a conclusive conclusion. However, the thing that I like about Strategy 2 is that the money that you win on winning weeks has at least the potential to make a positive difference to your week. The 20 or 30 cent that you consistently win on the Strategy 1 will probably end up in that huge jar in your bed room that is full of coppers - may as well be in the bin.
| Strategy 1 (Biggest Favourite) | Strategy 2 (Biggest Underdog) | |||||||||||||||
| Week | Match | Bet Selected | Potential Payout | Total Payout | Match | Bet Selected | Potential Payout | Total Payout | ||||||||
| 2013-08-17 | Chelsea FC | 2 | 0 | Hull City FC | Chelsea | 1/5 | 1.20 | 1.20 | Chelsea FC | 2 | 0 | Hull City FC | Hull | 20/1 | 21.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-08-24 | Cardiff City FC | 3 | 2 | Manchester City FC | Man City | 4/9 | 1.44 | 0.00 | Cardiff City FC | 3 | 2 | Manchester City FC | Cardiff | 15/2 | 8.50 | 8.50 |
| 2013-08-31 | Manchester City FC | 2 | 0 | Hull City FC | Man City | 1/6 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Manchester City FC | 2 | 0 | Hull City FC | Hull | 18/1 | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-09-14 | Manchester United FC | 2 | 0 | Crystal Palace FC | Man United | 2/9 | 1.22 | 1.22 | Manchester United FC | 2 | 0 | Crystal Palace FC | Crystal Palace | 15/1 | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-09-21 | Chelsea FC | 2 | 0 | Fulham FC | Chelsea | 3/10 | 1.30 | 1.30 | Chelsea FC | 2 | 0 | Fulham FC | Fulham | 11/1 | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-09-28 | Manchester United FC | 1 | 2 | West Bromwich Albion FC | Man United | 3/10 | 1.30 | 0.00 | Manchester United FC | 1 | 2 | West Bromwich Albion FC | West Brom | 11/1 | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| 2013-10-05 | Liverpool FC | 3 | 1 | Crystal Palace FC | Liverpool | 1/5 | 1.20 | 1.20 | Liverpool FC | 3 | 1 | Crystal Palace FC | Crystal Palace | 16/1 | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-10-19 | Chelsea FC | 4 | 1 | Cardiff City FC | Chelsea | 1/4 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Chelsea FC | 4 | 1 | Cardiff City FC | Cardiff | 14/1 | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-10-26 | Manchester United FC | 3 | 2 | Stoke City FC | Man United | 1/3 | 1.33 | 1.33 | Crystal Palace FC | 0 | 2 | Arsenal FC | Crystal Palace | 10/1 | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-11-02 | Manchester City FC | 7 | 0 | Norwich City FC | Man City | 1/5 | 1.20 | 1.20 | Manchester City FC | 7 | 0 | Norwich City FC | Norwich | 17/1 | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-11-09 | Liverpool FC | 4 | 0 | Fulham FC | Liverpool | 1/4 | 1.25 | 1.25 | Liverpool FC | 4 | 0 | Fulham FC | Fulham | 14/1 | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-11-23 | Arsenal FC | 2 | 0 | Southampton FC | Arsenal | 5/8 | 1.62 | 1.62 | Arsenal FC | 2 | 0 | Southampton FC | Southampton | 5/1 | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-11-30 | Arsenal FC | 2 | 0 | Hull City FC | Arsenal | 1/5 | 1.20 | 1.20 | Arsenal FC | 2 | 0 | Hull City FC | Hull | 16/1 | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-12-07 | Liverpool FC | 4 | 1 | West Ham United FC | Liverpool | 2/7 | 1.29 | 1.29 | Liverpool FC | 4 | 1 | West Ham United FC | West Ham | 11/1 | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-12-14 | Chelsea FC | 2 | 1 | Crystal Palace FC | Chelsea | 2/11 | 1.18 | 1.18 | Chelsea FC | 2 | 1 | Crystal Palace FC | Crystal Palace | 18/1 | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-12-21 | Liverpool FC | 3 | 1 | Cardiff City FC | Liverpool | 1/5 | 1.20 | 1.20 | Liverpool FC | 3 | 1 | Cardiff City FC | Cardiff | 15/1 | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| 2013-12-28 | Manchester City FC | 1 | 0 | Crystal Palace FC | Man City | 1/8 | 1.12 | 1.12 | Manchester City FC | 1 | 0 | Crystal Palace FC | Crystal Palace | 28/1 | 29.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-01-11 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 2 | 0 | Crystal Palace FC | Tottenham | 4/11 | 1.36 | 1.36 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 2 | 0 | Crystal Palace FC | Crystal Palace | 9/1 | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-01-18 | Manchester City FC | 4 | 2 | Cardiff City FC | Man City | 1/8 | 1.12 | 1.12 | Manchester City FC | 4 | 2 | Cardiff City FC | Cardiff | 22/1 | 23.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-01-25 | Chelsea FC | 0 | 0 | West Ham United FC | Chelsea | 2/11 | 1.18 | 0.00 | Chelsea FC | 0 | 0 | West Ham United FC | West Ham | 18/1 | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-02-01 | Arsenal FC | 2 | 0 | Crystal Palace FC | Arsenal | 2/9 | 1.22 | 1.22 | Arsenal FC | 2 | 0 | Crystal Palace FC | Crystal Palace | 15/1 | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-02-08 | Manchester United FC | 2 | 2 | Fulham FC | Man United | 1/5 | 1.20 | 0.00 | Manchester United FC | 2 | 2 | Fulham FC | Fulham | 18/1 | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-02-22 | Manchester City FC | 1 | 0 | Stoke City FC | Man City | 2/11 | 1.18 | 1.18 | Manchester City FC | 1 | 0 | Stoke City FC | Stoke | 18/1 | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-03-01 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 1 | 0 | Cardiff City FC | Tottenham | 1/3 | 1.33 | 1.33 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | 1 | 0 | Cardiff City FC | Cardiff | 11/1 | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-03-08 | Chelsea FC | 4 | 0 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | Chelsea | 4/7 | 1.57 | 1.57 | Chelsea FC | 4 | 0 | Tottenham Hotspur FC | Tottenham | 6/1 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-03-15 | Everton FC | 2 | 1 | Cardiff City FC | Everton | 4/11 | 1.36 | 1.36 | Everton FC | 2 | 1 | Cardiff City FC | Cardiff | 10/1 | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-03-22 | Manchester City FC | 5 | 0 | Fulham FC | Man City | 1/6 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Liverpool FC | 2 | 1 | Sunderland AFC | Sunderland | 18/1 | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-03-29 | Crystal Palace FC | 1 | 0 | Chelsea FC | Chelsea | 2/5 | 1.40 | 0.00 | Crystal Palace FC | 1 | 0 | Chelsea FC | Crystal Palace | 9/1 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| 2014-04-05 | Chelsea FC | 3 | 0 | Stoke City FC | Chelsea | 2/7 | 1.29 | 1.29 | Chelsea FC | 3 | 0 | Stoke City FC | Stoke | 12/1 | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-04-12 | Manchester City FC | 2 | 2 | Sunderland AFC | Man City | 1/6 | 1.17 | 0.00 | Manchester City FC | 2 | 2 | Sunderland AFC | Sunderland | 16/1 | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-04-19 | Chelsea FC | 1 | 2 | Sunderland AFC | Chelsea | 2/11 | 1.18 | 0.00 | Chelsea FC | 1 | 2 | Sunderland AFC | Sunderland | 12/1 | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| 2014-04-26 | Arsenal FC | 3 | 0 | Newcastle United FC | Arsenal | 2/7 | 1.29 | 1.29 | Arsenal FC | 3 | 0 | Newcastle United FC | Newcastle | 11/1 | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-05-03 | Manchester City FC | 4 | 0 | Aston Villa FC | Man City | 1/7 | 1.14 | 1.14 | Manchester City FC | 4 | 0 | Aston Villa FC | Aston Villa | 20/1 | 21.00 | 0.00 |
| 2014-05-10 | Manchester City FC | 2 | 0 | West Ham United FC | Man City | 1/6 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Manchester City FC | 2 | 0 | West Ham United FC | West Ham | 16/1 | 17.00 | 0.00 |
Example of bets selected for 2013/14 season. Four 'weekend changing' winnings on Strategy 2 vs no 'weekend changing' winning on Strategy 1. However long term Strategy 1 pays back most.
The table further below shows a more accurate reality. In the long term both strategies are doomed to failure, with Strategy 2, although still more appealing in some ways the biggest loser mathematically. It seems that the bookies are under no pressure to offer good value on the underdog.
This in a way reflects our attitude to money and illustrate the concept of the diminishing utility of money. The more money you have the less useful it is. The euro at the top of your stack is not as important as the euro at the bottom. €100 euro is not always worth 100 times €1. First our income goes on important things like food, then rent/mortgage, then clothes. The money that buys these things is worth alot to us. After that we spend on things we enjoy, a day at the movies, a nice meal. These things are still worth alot to us, but we can still live without them. And finally the money at the top of the stack - this is the change that we throw on the table without counting it when we tip at a restaurant, the change that slips under the couch, the change from the store that we toss into the charity bucket on the way out. This money doesn't really have any life changing potential - it's almost worthless. But if we could turn this money into €20 or €30, it still might not have life changing potential but it could turn a dreary weekend toiling in the kitchen into a relaxing night in with a feast from the local chip shop! It doesn't really matter if it is €20 or €30, so it doesn't really matter if its 20/1 or 30/1 - in a way its worth the same. This is why I imagine that bookie's are not under pressure to offer value on the underdog. Although they have no long term value to us, we still take a punt on them.
The Strategies when applied to the Spanish La Liga come up with very similar results.
| Strategy 1 | Strategy 2 | |||||
| # of bets (@ 1 euro each) | # of winning bets | total payout | # of bets (@ 1 euro each) | # of winning bets | total payout | |
| 2002/03 | 36 | 27 | 37.13 | 36 | 3 | 19.00 |
| 2003/04 | 36 | 24 | 32.15 | 36 | 2 | 20.00 |
| 2004/05 | 36 | 25 | 33.23 | 36 | 2 | 9.75 |
| 2005/06 | 35 | 28 | 35.95 | 35 | 1 | 7.50 |
| 2006/07 | 35 | 25 | 32.36 | 35 | 2 | 15.00 |
| 2007/08 | 35 | 29 | 36.89 | 35 | 1 | 13.00 |
| 2008/09 | 37 | 27 | 34.09 | 37 | 4 | 34.15 |
| 2009/10 | 36 | 31 | 38.56 | 36 | 1 | 3.25 |
| 2010/11 | 37 | 25 | 31.27 | 37 | 5 | 48.80 |
| 2011/12 | 36 | 32 | 39.86 | 36 | 1 | 26.00 |
| 2012/13 | 36 | 32 | 41.87 | 36 | 2 | 21.50 |
| 2013/14 | 34 | 27 | 33.93 | 34 | 4 | 43.50 |
| Sum | 429 | 332 | 427.29 | 429 | 28 | 261.45 |
| Total Loss 1.71 | Total Loss 167.55 | |||||
Table showing long term success/failure of each strategy broken down by season. Both strategies are long term failures - although some seasons for both strategies the payout per bet exceeded the total number of bets (total payout is not equal to profit as it includes the fact your stake is returned).
So it looks like so far our options are
1. to lose money slowly put your money on the biggest foregone conclusion each week.
2. to get rid of that pesky change jangling in your pocket, throw €1 or €2 on the biggest under dog each week and enjoy maybe 2 or 3 meals out during the year.
3. buy a jar and throw your change in here each week, at the end of the season put it towards a weekend break some where.
4. come up with a new betting strategy.
You should put your money on the winner, that is usually the best idea
ReplyDelete5.back winners only
ReplyDeleteYou can't bet after the event guys.
ReplyDelete