Chrome Extension 1000

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If you have enjoyed using this extension and want to show your appreciation then click "Buy me a coffee" below, otherwise continue further down to read about our features!

This started off as just a personal project.  I got full value from the effort that I put in already.  

The effort included a few days coding initially and a day or two here or there to fix and add features, perhaps a full working week but fragmented all over the place.  In total it is now about 150 lines of code.  

The reward was learning some javascript, learning about chrome extensions, earning some cred on twitter, and getting to connect with different people.  And of course I am actively using it and can identify potential betting opportunities myself.

However surprisingly many have found it useful and some have asked for a way to say thanks.  So here it is.

Feature Request (01 February 2024) - only available to manually install due to gambling exetnsions being rejected by Chrome Store

We have made a couple of enhancements (by request!!).

1. The best place overrounds are colour coded from best to worst.  The calculation is (number of places) / (total place book percent) so that we can compare books with different place terms.  By this measure 10 places each way with a 879% place book is better than 8 places with 740% (10/8.79 = 1.13 > 1.08 = 8/7.4).  

The shading goes from green to white for best overbroke to breakeven.  Then from white to darker grey for low to higher place book overround.

Note: the colour coding only applies to the place overround.

2. Best each way price indicator takes into account the individual book price for each participant, the number of places and the each way fraction.  We use: ew comparison = price x places / denominator.  You will see the biggest ew comparison for each participant highlighted in green font and underlined.  

For example Scottie Scheffler's  ew comparison at Coral is 8 x 10 / 6 (=13.33), at Boyle is 9.5 x 8 / 5 (=15.2) and at Betvictor is 10 x 5 / 4 (=12.5).  So taking into account the price, the places, the fraction we believe its worth highlighting the Boyle price.  It is not best win price, it is not best each way terms but some how the combination makes it more appealing than the other prices when betting each way.

A lot of the time the best win price will also be the best each way price but it's more interesting when its not (as in the example above).  In that way you can hit good prices that are not technically the best prices (but better than the best in terms of each way?).  The bookie's might be more forgiving.

As with everything.  Do your own research.  This extention only adds basic information.  The highlighting is for information purpose, if something is "green" doesn't mean I am recommending a bet.  It simply means that the price might be worthy of further research.  Green != Go.

Chrome Extension 1000 (22 August 2022)

The team here in the FoG office are ecstatic to announce we have reached 1000 weekly users for our Chrome Extension.

As a reward to you all for achieving this milestone for us, here are some tips and guides on using the extension.  Hopefully you all continue to find it useful and that it helps you to find the markets that you like.

We thank all our users but in particular Martin Hughes (@boots111) who promoted the extention back in June 2020 on his twitter.  Overnight the users went from about 4 or 5 (me and a couple of mates) into the 100's as seen in the graph below.  Also Luke Patton (@Golfpunter1) who also gave it a shout out lately which was the push needed to reach the 1000.

Overround

The overround is simply the odds of each outcome converted to probabilities and added together.  To convert decimal odds to a probability just divide the odds into 1, ie. 4.0 -> 1/4=0.25 or 25%.  To convert fractional odds to probability divide the denominator by the numerator plus one, ie 3/1 -> 1/(3+1) = 0.25 or 25%.  But you dont need to know this, the chrome extension tool does all that for you.

All the probabilities should add up to 100% in theory on a win market where all possible outcomes are listed, but in order to profit the bookies must add a margin.  So in practice the overround will add up to something over 100%, depending on how much margin they want.

Win Overround

This sort of information is helpful for all bettors.  It can inform them on which markets they want to bet into, or if they want to bet at all.  It should probably be compulsary for books to clearly display this information, but as it is, they can hide their margins.  This is not transparent.

If you are betting for entertainment and accept that you will lose long term, then your money will last longer if you bet into markets with tight overrounds/margins.  This is important, in my opinion.  If you go to the cinema you know what you are paying for your entertainment, but for books the charges are hidden in their margin/overround.  Each individual bet can win or lose, but long term the margin that they build in is what you expect to spend for the entertainment they provide.  Whether that is a 3% margin or a 20% margin should be a big deal.

The win overround is also showing the confidence that the book have in their pricing for that market.  A market that is priced close to 100% will be very efficient.  These will be hard to beat. If you are starting out and betting for profit you will want to find a softer market.  However, your challenge will be that you have to beat a bigger overround.

 

Place Overround

Alex Bird was a famous professional gambler.  One of his Golden Rules was:

"3. Be an Each-Way thief. Do this by finding races with 8-10 runners which are not handicaps, and where there are only a few form horses in the race. Then oppose the favourite and combine the second and third favourites in each-way combination bets."

It is a good rule, but also a bit imprecise.  Exactly how much good form should the horses have, is it 8 or 10 runners, what about 11 runners if the favourite is in really good form?  Analysing the place overround brings exactly the precision needed.  If there are "a few form horses" then this will distort the place prices enough and it will show in the place overround.  Also there are other scenarios beyond what Bird has described that analysing the place overround will work to find value (for example, extra place promotions). 

To calculate the place overround it is the same as before, but apply the fraction (1/5 or 1/4 usually, can be seen in each way terms) to the win price and add up as before.

You can often find low overrounds or even overbroke books.  For 4 places if the place overround is close to 400% then it is low, when it is less than 400% it is described as overbroke.  If it is much much bigger than 400% then you are looking at a high overround.

When the place overround is low, or overbroke, there may be some value in betting each way.  You still have to decide which horse if any to bet.  Remember that the value will be diluted or completely cancelled out by the win part of the each way bet.  The most likely horse to find value will depend on the overall race/event make up.  For example a very short favourite; a lot of rags; an outright where all the top teams/players are drawn on the same side - all these scenarios can create each way value for different horses/participants.  In order to identify for sure where the value is, you will need to be able to estimate the true win and place probabilities on a horse by horse basis and compare to what the bookie terms are offering (this is beyond this article). 

If the place overround is very high, then instead of placing an each way bet, you might get a better price on the place part if you look for their separate place markets which they will most likely have.  Or just bet win only.

Many books offer Extra Places on horse racing, golf and even other outrights.  These races will not automatically present value, and even if they do it may not be on every horse.  So you have to be careful not to just jump in on the Extra Place marketing.  Carefully look at the place overround to see if there is value on the place market.  Also double check the win overround to make sure they are not taking all the value and more back on the win part, this is a common tactic to make you feel like you are getting a good bet.

Summary

So, in summary, whether you are a pro or a recreational gambler, looking at the place overround with the win overround will answer some questions for you, as discussed.

1. Am I paying a big margin betting into this market?  Will I lose my money faster?

2. Is this a soft market, a chance that the bookie priced up a rick in here?

3. Is there potentially a +EV each way bet in here?

4. Should I bet win only, or each way here?

5. If I still fancy the horse to place but the place terms create a massive overround in the place book.  Should I check if the book has a place market and perhaps get a better price there?

6. Is this particular Extra Place Promotion actually a nice promotion or just some sales gimmick to get me to bet?

7. Have they suckered me into a bad bet by dangling an Extra Place offer in front of me and then piling in extra margin on the win market?