FoG

Here on FoG blog we have been watching the FIFA rankings.  They are rather meaningless for most years but they are used when it comes to seeding for the World Cup, and also the World Cup Qualifying.  We saw in 2014 World Cup how Italy suffered from dropping out of the top 8 seeds, and Switzerland benefited. The July release is now likely to decide the seeds for the European qualifying draw for World Cup 2018.  Up until now we have not had the exact release date.  However from checking the FIFA.com website today I can see the date will be July 9th.  The release date determines the cut off points for the FIFA ranking points. This is critical for teams like Netherlands and Germany and it means that their World Cup games versus Brazil and Argentina and all matches played on or after  9th July 2014 will have full weighting.  Netherlands beat Brazil in the third place play-off on 12 July 2014 which contributes 2364 points (3 * 4 * 197 * 1) to thei...

Its that time of the year again where the matches are going to come thick and fast, but before they do lets just take a breath and see where everyone  stands. You may have read that whenever Chelsea have been top at Christmas they have then gone on to win.  True?  Yes.  Meaningful?  No.   There are no prizes for being top at Christmas.   It is equally true that every season that Man Utd have been 3rd at Christmas they have gone on to win the Premier League (2002/03, 1998/99).   Top at Christmas has not always meant top in May. Fair enough it is somewhat of an achievement and a bit of a milestone in the season.  At the same time though its a stage of the season where you still haven't played every team.  And looking back in history Arsenal, Man Utd, Newcastle, Leeds, Aston Villa and Norwich have all been top at Christmas and failed to deliver the trophy.  Even as recently as last season Liverpool added their name to this li...

All fixtures are summarised below.  The matches are rated by difficulty based on outright odds of their opponents, and whether the match is home or away.  Hover over the match for some more details. Included also is the total number of home games played, and the total number of home games against the big 4 (Pats, Dundalk, Shamrock Rovers, Cork). The airtricity league is somewhat unique in that each team doesn't play equal home and away games.  To make up 33 matches each team plays the others 3 times, in some cases twice at home and once away, and in other cases vice versa.  It is possible that a team can have an advantage over the season by playing more home games over all or more home games against the tougher teams.  For example Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk, Pats and Cork only once away each, but twice at home. First Half team home games home vs top 4 Series 1 Series 2 Series 3 Series 4 Series 5 Series 6 Series 7 Series 8 Series 9 ...

The fixtures for the LoI were announced yesterday.  The full list by team can be found here . The two favourites (Shamrock Rovers and St. Pats) play out on the first day. Last years champs and runners up Dundalk and Cork don't have easy starts either.  They both face top teams in their first 4 matches.  Perhaps Dundalk have the easier start - although they have to face St Pats (favourites) on day 3.  The opportunity is there for another team to make their mark on the table in the first few weeks (Limerick maybe?). Drogheda avoid all of St. Pats, Shamrock Rovers, Cork and Dundalk in their first 6 matches.  This could mean a good start which could translate into some confidence and momentum which they will need.  They may be relegation contenders next season. If St. Pats are in contention at the end they may have a slight advantage in the run in.  Bohs, Galway, Drogheda and Longford are among the teams they play in the last 5 matches.  None ...

The last time before now that I was in any way invested in Sergio Aguero was when I had picked him for my fantasy football team in 2012/13.  He got injured on the first day of the season that time!   Now I am invested in him again after taking up Paddy Power on their top scorer promotion.  I have  € 20 on him at 6/1.  I have been collecting free  € 2 bets each time he scores and so far have made back  € 13.83 of the initial  € 20 on the winnings from these free bets.  But when Saturday came and news trickled in about his injury all those feelings from my failed fantasy team episode came rushing back. Paddy Power were quick to take down the market for top goal scorer while rumours and speculation played out about the extent of the injury.  They have finally put the market back up today (3 days later) and to my surprise the value of my investment has not fallen all that far.   EPL Top Scorer Betting Trend I am certainl...

As predicted by Mourinho Chelsea won't go the season unbeaten after losing on Saturday to Newcastle.  Since this is getting a bit of media attention mainly because of Mourinho's comments earlier in the season I have decided to write a quick article about it.  How was Mourinho so sure that he wouldn't remain undefeated, hadn't Arsenal achieved this before?  How likely is it anyway? Lets look back to 2003/04 to when Arsenal achieved the feat, only the second time in English football league top flight history after Preston Northend remained undefeated for all 22 league matches in 1888/89. See below Arsenal's run of undefeated matches along with the bookies' odds, implied probability and adjusted implied probability. Click to enlarge.  Full list of Arsenal's invincible season including odds. For example Arsenal were 3/2 to beat Liverpool on 4th Oct.  This translates to about 40% chance but I have also adjusted for the bookies edge.  Bookies probabi...

Chelsea are 6 points clear and in blistering form after scoring 3 against Tottenham.  But is 6 points after 14 games enough?  History would say no.  With only 9 teams that were top after 14 in the last 22 seasons actually finishing up top when all is said and done.  Just look at last year.  Man City were 6 points behind similar to right now, but only 3rd.  Last season they had both Chelsea and Arsenal to catch, and they did, with points to spare.   Of course this year could be like one of those 9 out of 22 seasons that did end up with top going on to be champions. Anyone following me on twitter will have seen my weekly updates and league tables from the archives to show that its not quite over yet. It begs the question, when is the table indicative of the final table? So I cross checked the tables after 15 rounds, 16 rounds, at Christmas etc against the final table.  And 9 out of the 22 seasons, or 10 out of the 22 seasons the toppers wen...

The short list for the Ballon D'Or is to be announced on Dec 1.  The 23 nominees will be whittled down to 3.  It looks like it will be Ronaldo and Messi and then one of Muller, Neymar and Rodriguez on the short list.   Perhaps Rodriguez is being considered because he was snubbed for the WC2014 player of the tournament award where he scored in every match, was awarded the goal of the tournament and the Golden Boot for top scorer.  Apart from the World Cup though, he wasn't really a stand out player when the full year is taken into account and in my opinion probably shouldn't be in the reckoning here. Take a look at the official criteria here . The award is for  achievements during the period 30 November 2013 to 21 November 2014 inclusive and takes into account on and off the pitch activity (Art 2 & 3).  I suspect that the jury (voted on by players, coaches and media) won't be pulling out the calendars and checking who scored what and when.  ...

FIFA need to stick to football and stay away from maths. The latest blunder relates to the points awarded to Netherlands and Brazil.  See the screenshot from their website this afternoon below. 3 * 2.5 * 101 * 0.99 = 749.925.  Now I have no problem with FIFA rounding this down .  But... 3 * 1 * 171 * 0.995 = 510.435.  And normally I would have no problem with FIFA rounding this up . But is there one rule for Brazil and another for Netherlands? Round up or Round down? I wouldn't even mention this because 1 single point averaged out over a couple dozen games makes a negligible difference.  However it seems to highlight the fact that FIFA don't pay much attention to the detail.   This comes in recent months where I also noticed a slight misrepresentation of the calculations #fifa #fifarankings well done FIFA. Back to primary school and brush up on your Maths. 1 * 1 * 88 * 1 is not 81! pic.twitter.com/XyVcCbGspz — FoG (@FoG_BLoG) Ju...

For people that are playing the Dunkest   NBA Fantasy Basketball League, here are some tips. Sunday night was a good night for Lebron James and all those who invested their precious credits on the star of the NBA.  To this point he has been shooting a little hot and a little cold as he adjusts to life back in Cleveland and while the rest of the team adjust around him.  But in his last match, James scored 29 points and assisted on 11 baskets which earned him a nice fantasy basketball score.   Here is why his good performance in this game in particular wasn't so unexpected. The opposition in question was Orlando Magic.  Magic only have a 37.5% win rate and are unfancied by the bookies at 250/1 to win outright.  A shrewd fantasy league manager will have noticed the potential for James in this match and bought him in before hand.  However for each trade there is a penalty - so better would be to spot a small run of games against weak opposition and ...

Ireland recorded an emphatic 4-1 home win against USA.  This USA squad has come in for some praise in recent times.  The result for Ireland may prove to be significant in terms of FIFA ranking points and in terms of seeding for the World Cup 2018 qualifiers. The seedings for those qualifiers will probably be decided based on the July 2015 FIFA rankings.  This is not confirmed yet but would be consistent with recent tournaments.  In that case the results of the four years leading up to July 2015 will contribute to the rankings. The results of the 3 years from July 2012 to July 2014 would need to be calculated and averaged and weighted but I figure the total for those 3 years is 214 ranking points.  The average points for July 2014 to July 2015 will then be added.  See below: Based on the current ranking an 843.32 points tally would enough to put Ireland into Pot 2. In the case where Ireland win one of Scotland and Poland then the least po...

Ireland's qualification for WC2018 has already begun in my eyes.  It is likely that the qualifying groups will be seeded according to July 2015 Fifa Rankings ( see here ).  Every match between now and then will count rankings points towards these seedings.  Ireland are likely to be in one of the Pots 3 to 5 based on current rankings.  This would mean that as well as a top seed like Germany, Spain and Belgium that Ireland will also have to contend with a Pot 2 team like England (current rankings place them only 12th in Europe), Netherlands (who are on a drastic slide) and France (who will find it hard to maintain a high place in the FIFA rankings while only playing friendlies from here to 2016). Much better for Ireland would be to be in Pot 2 themselves and avoid these big names.  There are no teams provisionally in Pots 3-5 that will be a worry. The teams ranked 1st to 9th within Europe will likely make up Pot 1, with teams placed 10th to 18th in Pot 2, dep...