Ballon D'Or
The short list for the Ballon D'Or is to be announced on Dec 1. The 23 nominees will be whittled down to 3. It looks like it will be Ronaldo and Messi and then one of Muller, Neymar and Rodriguez on the short list.
Perhaps Rodriguez is being considered because he was snubbed for the WC2014 player of the tournament award where he scored in every match, was awarded the goal of the tournament and the Golden Boot for top scorer. Apart from the World Cup though, he wasn't really a stand out player when the full year is taken into account and in my opinion probably shouldn't be in the reckoning here.
Take a look at the official criteria here.
The award is for achievements during the period 30 November 2013 to 21 November 2014 inclusive and takes into account on and off the pitch activity (Art 2 & 3). I suspect that the jury (voted on by players, coaches and media) won't be pulling out the calendars and checking who scored what and when. Recent headlines will weigh heavier on their minds like Ronaldo's scoring streak at the beginning of this season.
The voting period for the Awards commences on 28 October 2014 and concludes on 21 November 2014 (Art 9). Now this is absolutely critical when you look at the dates of Messi's recent headlines. Sorry all too late!
Finally some notes on the Jury.
The winners of the Awards are selected by a diverse international jury made up of the current coaches of national teams, the current captains of national teams and specialist journalists (limited to one journalist per country) (Art 4).
You can actually see how they voted last year here.
Having players vote opens the process up to strategic voting. Presumably Messi doesn't really think that Iniesta was the best player in 2013 after him, and I assume that Ronaldo likewise doesn't really think Falcao was the best. Neither believed their main rival was even in the top 3!
There is also something of the popularity contest about it - voting for your friends and team mates. Real Madrid keeper Casillas didn't rate Messi in the top 3 at all, while Van Persie predictably voted for Robben, Ashley Williams voted for Bale, Buffon for Pirlo, Mario Yepes for Falcoa, Samuel Etoo for Yaya Toure.
The chart above shows the betting trend. The bookies had Messi favourite coming out of the World Cup where he scored critical goals and also made the Semi Final. Ronaldo and Portugal went home early. The bookies quickly changed their minds though and looking at the odds they seem to have switched allegiance based solely on Ronaldo's hattricks against weaker opposition at first - jumping from 12/5 to evens favourite over night after 4 vs Elche. Ronaldo then cemented his lead with the bookies with another hattrick against Bilbao moving to 4/6. He continued to score, while Messi didn't and latest odds are 1/6 for Ronaldo.
Follow me on twitter @FoG_BLoG, or on facebook /fog2014.
Perhaps Rodriguez is being considered because he was snubbed for the WC2014 player of the tournament award where he scored in every match, was awarded the goal of the tournament and the Golden Boot for top scorer. Apart from the World Cup though, he wasn't really a stand out player when the full year is taken into account and in my opinion probably shouldn't be in the reckoning here.
Take a look at the official criteria here.
The award is for achievements during the period 30 November 2013 to 21 November 2014 inclusive and takes into account on and off the pitch activity (Art 2 & 3). I suspect that the jury (voted on by players, coaches and media) won't be pulling out the calendars and checking who scored what and when. Recent headlines will weigh heavier on their minds like Ronaldo's scoring streak at the beginning of this season.
The voting period for the Awards commences on 28 October 2014 and concludes on 21 November 2014 (Art 9). Now this is absolutely critical when you look at the dates of Messi's recent headlines. Sorry all too late!
22 Nov: All time La Liga scorer after a hattrick vs Sevilla.
25 Nov: All time top scorer in Champions League after another hattrick this time vs Apoel.
Finally some notes on the Jury.
The winners of the Awards are selected by a diverse international jury made up of the current coaches of national teams, the current captains of national teams and specialist journalists (limited to one journalist per country) (Art 4).
You can actually see how they voted last year here.
Having players vote opens the process up to strategic voting. Presumably Messi doesn't really think that Iniesta was the best player in 2013 after him, and I assume that Ronaldo likewise doesn't really think Falcao was the best. Neither believed their main rival was even in the top 3!
There is also something of the popularity contest about it - voting for your friends and team mates. Real Madrid keeper Casillas didn't rate Messi in the top 3 at all, while Van Persie predictably voted for Robben, Ashley Williams voted for Bale, Buffon for Pirlo, Mario Yepes for Falcoa, Samuel Etoo for Yaya Toure.
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| Ronaldo hattrick headlines helping to make him favourite for the award. Messi hattrick headlines too late. |
The chart above shows the betting trend. The bookies had Messi favourite coming out of the World Cup where he scored critical goals and also made the Semi Final. Ronaldo and Portugal went home early. The bookies quickly changed their minds though and looking at the odds they seem to have switched allegiance based solely on Ronaldo's hattricks against weaker opposition at first - jumping from 12/5 to evens favourite over night after 4 vs Elche. Ronaldo then cemented his lead with the bookies with another hattrick against Bilbao moving to 4/6. He continued to score, while Messi didn't and latest odds are 1/6 for Ronaldo.
Follow me on twitter @FoG_BLoG, or on facebook /fog2014.
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