A Quiet Christmas Reflection

Its that time of the year again where the matches are going to come thick and fast, but before they do lets just take a breath and see where everyone  stands.

 You may have read that whenever Chelsea have been top at Christmas they have then gone on to win.  True?  Yes.  Meaningful?  No.  There are no prizes for being top at Christmas.  It is equally true that every season that Man Utd have been 3rd at Christmas they have gone on to win the Premier League (2002/03, 1998/99).  


Top at Christmas has not always meant top in May.
Fair enough it is somewhat of an achievement and a bit of a milestone in the season.  At the same time though its a stage of the season where you still haven't played every team.  And looking back in history Arsenal, Man Utd, Newcastle, Leeds, Aston Villa and Norwich have all been top at Christmas and failed to deliver the trophy.  Even as recently as last season Liverpool added their name to this list for the 3rd time!!
What does each team have to play for?
I am not taking anything away from Chelsea, they are definitely in the best position to go on and win.  However Mourinho would be the first to concede that they have won nothing yet.  The graphic above based on bookie's odds would indicate they have about 70% chance, with only Man City likely to ruin their party.

The top 4 although not written in stone yet, looks very likely to be Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd and Arsenal.  Southampton are the next most likely to upset any of the big 4.  The bookie is giving them about a 15% chance of being top 4.

The next two spots are more up in the air.  Southampton, Tottenham and Liverpool are most likely to battle for the two Europa spots, but don't be surprised to see West Ham or Everton still in the reckoning by May.

Swansea, Newcastle, Stoke, Villa and maybe Sunderland should cruise through the rest of the season in no man's land - safe from both relegation and european qualification.

The relegation is open enough this season with at least 6 teams under pressure.  Burnly and Leicester are in the biggest trouble but both can still be hopeful (about 30% chance they can survive).  Hull, QPR, Palace and West Brom will also be dragged into the battle.  The relegation race might be the most exciting issue left to be decided in this year's Premier League.

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