Can Chelsea be caught?

Chelsea are 6 points clear and in blistering form after scoring 3 against Tottenham.  But is 6 points after 14 games enough?  History would say no.  With only 9 teams that were top after 14 in the last 22 seasons actually finishing up top when all is said and done.  Just look at last year.  Man City were 6 points behind similar to right now, but only 3rd.  Last season they had both Chelsea and Arsenal to catch, and they did, with points to spare.  Of course this year could be like one of those 9 out of 22 seasons that did end up with top going on to be champions.

Anyone following me on twitter will have seen my weekly updates and league tables from the archives to show that its not quite over yet.

It begs the question, when is the table indicative of the final table?

So I cross checked the tables after 15 rounds, 16 rounds, at Christmas etc against the final table.  And 9 out of the 22 seasons, or 10 out of the 22 seasons the toppers went on to be the champions.  Always a minority.

You have to wait to 22 rounds before the tide turns in the toppers favour.  After 22 rounds the team at top went on to be champion 12 times!  So there are at least 8 more matches to play before Chelsea can truly believe that they have more than a 50-50 chance of winning.  And even at 22 rounds I see Man Utd 7 points clear in 97/98, Newcastle 7 points clear in 95/96 and Arsenal 5 points clear in 02/03 all finished 2nd.  Even as recent as last season Arsenal were still top after 22 games and finished as low as 4th!

12 teams top after 22 matches won outright, 10 teams top after 22 matches slipped up.  
22 matcehs is the turning points where more teams go on to win than go on to slip up.

Before we write off the rest of the league, lets see how the table looks after 22.


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