Significant Friendly win

Ireland recorded an emphatic 4-1 home win against USA.  This USA squad has come in for some praise in recent times.  The result for Ireland may prove to be significant in terms of FIFA ranking points and in terms of seeding for the World Cup 2018 qualifiers.

The seedings for those qualifiers will probably be decided based on the July 2015 FIFA rankings.  This is not confirmed yet but would be consistent with recent tournaments.  In that case the results of the four years leading up to July 2015 will contribute to the rankings.

The results of the 3 years from July 2012 to July 2014 would need to be calculated and averaged and weighted but I figure the total for those 3 years is 214 ranking points.  The average points for July 2014 to July 2015 will then be added.  See below:

Based on the current ranking an 843.32 points tally would enough to put Ireland into Pot 2.

In the case where Ireland win one of Scotland and Poland then the least points we would have is a 3288 total, which averages out at 411 points for July 2014-July 2015.  This would give Ireland an overall weighted average of 625 which by current standing would appear to be enough to put Ireland in Pot 3.

Obviously the points targets for the different pots are not fixed so 843 is no guarantee for Pot 2, and 625 is no guarantee for Pot 3.  They are a good guide though.  Also Russia will qualify automatically which might open an extra spot in Pot 2, or 3 depending on Russia's position in the rankings.

So it looks like the big prize for 3 home wins will be to be in Pot 2 and avoid big teams like England, France, Netherlands and Spain who yet might find themselves in Pot 2.  A consolation would be Pot 3 which would help Ireland avoid teams like Austria, Sweden or Poland who might be likely to be in Pot 3.

Current rankings for European teams in the FIFA rankings are below.