Dunkest: Strength of Schedule

For people that are playing the Dunkest NBA Fantasy Basketball League, here are some tips.

 Sunday night was a good night for Lebron James and all those who invested their precious credits on the star of the NBA.  To this point he has been shooting a little hot and a little cold as he adjusts to life back in Cleveland and while the rest of the team adjust around him.  But in his last match, James scored 29 points and assisted on 11 baskets which earned him a nice fantasy basketball score.  

 Here is why his good performance in this game in particular wasn't so unexpected.

 The opposition in question was Orlando Magic.  Magic only have a 37.5% win rate and are unfancied by the bookies at 250/1 to win outright.  A shrewd fantasy league manager will have noticed the potential for James in this match and bought him in before hand.  However for each trade there is a penalty - so better would be to spot a small run of games against weak opposition and get more bang for your buck.  And now we can do that.  See below:
Strength of Opposition based on Odds.  Click to enlarge image.

The first table (above) assesses teams according to the bookie odds.  For example, Cleveland Cavaliers are 10/3 favourite with one bookie.  This translates to 10 loses to 3 wins, or 3 wins in 13 which is roughly 30% probability of winning the NBA Championship.  I have measured all 30 teams based on this metric and colour coded them on a sliding scale from red (high probability of winning and would like to avoid playing) to green (low probability of winning and so would benefit from playing against).  I have cross checked these against the Dunkest schedule so you can easily spot nice runs of soft opposition for each team.  

 For example Atlanta Hawks faced Toronto Raptors on Matchday #1.  Raptors are currently 30/1 to win which translates to an implied probability of 3.33%.  So look on the chart and you can see for Hawks, Matchday #1 is represented by 3.33% and a shade of amber which should alert managers with players from the Hawks to be cautious of this match.  The rest of the schedule is filled out similarly for each team.

 For example a nice spell to own Anthony Davies might be from Matchday #23 to Matchday #27 as Pelicans face all "green" teams.

 The second table (below) is based on win percentage so far in the season (up to Dunkest match day 8).  You may prefer this metric as a better indicator of opposition strength. 
Strength of Opposition based on latest Win Percent.  Click to enlarge.
Both tables can be used to help identify a run of weak opposition (buy buy buy!) or a run of strong opposition (sell sell sell!!).  You're players are more likely to score more fantasy league points against weaker teams.

 Follow me on twitter @FoG_BLoG, or on facebook /fog2014.

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