World Cup 2018: England better when they don't play
There is a buzz starting around England's chances and rightly so - the wisdom of the betfair hive mind has acted to shorten their price from 18.5 pre tournament into 8.2 now. This represents a move from about 5% chance to just over 12% chance.
It has mostly been out of their control up to now, the victory against Tunisia was expected so only raised their hopes by 1.5%, similarly the victory over Panama. The big influencers were the German and Spanish eliminations which raised their chances by 2% and 3% respectively. Even defeat to Belgium increased England's chances ever so slightly.
It is reason for optimism for sure as their chances have at least doubled. But feet need to stick firmly on the ground. Their advantage so far has come from outside influences without them having to perform, now its time for them to prove themselves.
Japan was assumed the easier R16 match for Group G but they went two up on Belgium - so what of Colombia? Some places are calling this one more or less 50-50.
If you are arrogant enough to look past Colombia then Switzerland/Sweden likewise will be a tough match. Switzerland held Brazil and beat a good Serbian side, meanwhile Sweden were minutes from a draw with Germany. Croatia/Russia will be a tough semi. And there is no way around it, the Final will be very tough - looking like their opponents would be Brazil (38% probability of being in the final), France (31%) or Belgium (21% - all percent chances based on betfair exchange "To Reach Final" odds). You wouldn't make England favourite against any of those teams.
It has mostly been out of their control up to now, the victory against Tunisia was expected so only raised their hopes by 1.5%, similarly the victory over Panama. The big influencers were the German and Spanish eliminations which raised their chances by 2% and 3% respectively. Even defeat to Belgium increased England's chances ever so slightly.
It is reason for optimism for sure as their chances have at least doubled. But feet need to stick firmly on the ground. Their advantage so far has come from outside influences without them having to perform, now its time for them to prove themselves.
Japan was assumed the easier R16 match for Group G but they went two up on Belgium - so what of Colombia? Some places are calling this one more or less 50-50.
If you are arrogant enough to look past Colombia then Switzerland/Sweden likewise will be a tough match. Switzerland held Brazil and beat a good Serbian side, meanwhile Sweden were minutes from a draw with Germany. Croatia/Russia will be a tough semi. And there is no way around it, the Final will be very tough - looking like their opponents would be Brazil (38% probability of being in the final), France (31%) or Belgium (21% - all percent chances based on betfair exchange "To Reach Final" odds). You wouldn't make England favourite against any of those teams.
Comments
Post a Comment