World Cup 2018: The Winners So Far

I am comparing prices from a week ago on the exchange with the current prices. I am trying to spot a trend, to see who the momentum is behind. 

CountryCurrent PricePrice Last weekCurrent implied probProb last weekMove
Brazil5.25.619.23%17.86%8%
Germany6.06.016.67%16.67%0%
Spain8.27.412.20%13.51%-10%
France8.87.811.36%12.82%-11%
Argentina11.011.09.09%9.09%0%
Belgium12.012.58.33%8.00%4%
England19.019.05.26%5.26%0%
Portugal26.028.03.85%3.57%8%
Uruguay30.034.03.33%2.94%13%
Croatia38.036.02.63%2.78%-5%
Colombia50.050.02.00%2.00%0%
Russia85.065.01.18%1.54%-24%
Poland95.0100.01.05%1.00%5%
Denmark120.0130.00.83%0.77%8%
Serbia170.0230.00.59%0.43%35%
Switzerland170.0170.00.59%0.59%0%
Mexico190.0150.00.53%0.67%-21%
Peru230.0220.00.43%0.45%-4%
Senegal260.0270.00.38%0.37%4%
Sweden340.0260.00.29%0.38%-24%
Iceland400.0410.00.25%0.24%3%
Egypt440.0300.00.23%0.33%-32%
Morocco450.0560.00.22%0.18%24%
Nigeria470.0320.00.21%0.31%-32%
Japan730.0670.00.14%0.15%-8%
South Korea770.0850.00.13%0.12%10%
Australia830.0800.00.12%0.13%-4%
Iran950.0790.00.11%0.13%-17%
Panama1000.01000.00.10%0.10%0%
Costa Rica1000.0820.00.10%0.12%-18%
Saudi Arabia1000.01000.00.10%0.10%0%
Tunisia1000.01000.00.10%0.10%0%

Quite a few have moved - for example Serbia from a price of 230 into 170, or Egypt from a price of 300 out to 440.  These moves are less than interesting. With low liquidity on the big prices, a relatively small change in opinion can cause a big shift in prices.

I am a little more interested in the top of the market. 

Here you can see the teams trending up are Brazil and Uruguay. Some of the teams trending down are Spain, France and Russia.

Brazil: Initially some concerns over Neymar may have affected their price. He was recovering from injury. Those concerns were somewhat dispelled when he returned and scored in the 3-0 freindly win over Austria on the 10th of June. The market responded positively.  Brazil also benefited as a couple of the other teams have had less than ideal preparations. They started last week at 5.6 favourites and now are into 5.2 favourites (even touching 5.1).

Small drifts and small changes in odds running up to the tournament. An important momentum shift, or random noise?

Uruguay: Uruguay are a good team, a good first 11 for sure. Cavani and Suarez will bag goals and Godin and Gimenez are a solid back two. They play their club football for the now second best club in Spain.  They also have a favourable draw - with Russia, Saudi, Egypt in the group plus guaranteed to avoid Brazil and Germany until at least the semi final. I think that this was a case of the markets getting it wrong in the first place and they have now found what is closer to their true price. At 33.0 last week I think that they were everyone's each way fancy. They have now shortened to 30.0.

Russia: This is another one that I think that the markets just got plain wrong. Maybe over excited that they were hosts, maybe over excited with their easy Group. Although it is easy for Uruguay, I don't think that it will be easy for Russia who are ranked the lowest team in the tournament by FIFA. Home advantage at the World Cup is also not what it used to be - sure in 1930 and 1934 Uruguay and Italy both hosted and both won. It has not been as straight forward since. Even the mighty Brazil last time out didn't make home field advantage count.

France: If the groups and knockouts go according to seeding then France are pencilled in to meet Brazil in the semi final. So as Brazil's position strengthened we have seen France's weakening. They were also hit with an injury concern over Mbappe. It has all added up to France drifting a full point from 7.8 to 8.8.

Spain: Spain were very steady all week at 7.4 to back. The drop is quite simply and quite clearly shown to be down to the outrageous decision from the Spanish FA to sack their manager on the eve of the World Cup.

Both Spain and France are weak in the betting, and both are on the same side of the draw. It is possible that one of Group A, B, C or D teams will get an easier than expected ride to the semi final at least. This could benefit Uruguay who are already building up their own momentum. Or Portugal who already benefited from a similar but more exaggerated scenario in the Euros and went all the way to win it. They drew 6 of 7 games in 90 minutes - and avoided all of Belgium, England, Spain, Italy and Germany. Instead they picked off relatively easy opposition like Croatia (Round of 16), Poland (QF) and Wales (SF) on the way to the Final.

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