World Cup 2018:Top Scorer Dark Horses
The warm up matches give a good indication on which players are in form. It also gives us an indication of where the national coaches minds are in regards their first 11. To be top scorer you have to be in form and a starter.
During the past week of International Friendlies I monitored the Exchange prices for the top scorers. I use the exchange prices to calculate probabilities (for example 100/1 ~= 1% chance). The biggest movers are graphed below.
Aleksander Mitrovic: A hat-trick against Bolivia in a 5-1 win for the Serb seems to have triggered some interest in him. Not only does it show that he is on form, but also may be an indication that Serbia can go deep. It was certainly an impressive score line. You can still get Mitrovic at 150/1 at Bet365.
Mario Mandzukic: The Croatian scored in the Friendly win against Senegal. I don't see much else behind the move for this veteran striker who would have been a nailed on starter any way. Senegal are a weaker side so there is nothing very impressive about a 2-1 win. However the market like him and he was available to back @ 160.0 and has shortened into 100.0.
Iago Aspas: Although Spain are impressive in other areas of the pitch they have some problems finding a consistent goal scorer. Aspas may not have been considered the head of the attack a week ago. Rodrigo and Costa failed to overly impress and when given his chance in the final Friendly Aspas came on and scored to stake his claim to start versus Portugal. I think Spanish readers may have an advantage here by understanding the gossip columns, but I would keep a close eye on the starting line ups next week. He has already been backed from a no-hoper priced at 230.0 on the exchange, and now at 130.0, a potential dark horse.
Marcus Rashford: The last biggest mover at a big price is Marcus Rashford who not only scored for England, but scored a worldie. England still have a few options up front but Rashford will be hoping that strike will have earned him more playing time. The market certainly thinks as much. Rashford was the biggest mover from 370.0 all the way into 160.0.
The top scorer market is an interesting one and you have to look out for the darkhorses. Rodriguez was a 150/1 winner last time out.
During the past week of International Friendlies I monitored the Exchange prices for the top scorers. I use the exchange prices to calculate probabilities (for example 100/1 ~= 1% chance). The biggest movers are graphed below.
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| Exchange Price movement on the Top Scorer market in betfair. |
Aleksander Mitrovic: A hat-trick against Bolivia in a 5-1 win for the Serb seems to have triggered some interest in him. Not only does it show that he is on form, but also may be an indication that Serbia can go deep. It was certainly an impressive score line. You can still get Mitrovic at 150/1 at Bet365.
Mario Mandzukic: The Croatian scored in the Friendly win against Senegal. I don't see much else behind the move for this veteran striker who would have been a nailed on starter any way. Senegal are a weaker side so there is nothing very impressive about a 2-1 win. However the market like him and he was available to back @ 160.0 and has shortened into 100.0.
Iago Aspas: Although Spain are impressive in other areas of the pitch they have some problems finding a consistent goal scorer. Aspas may not have been considered the head of the attack a week ago. Rodrigo and Costa failed to overly impress and when given his chance in the final Friendly Aspas came on and scored to stake his claim to start versus Portugal. I think Spanish readers may have an advantage here by understanding the gossip columns, but I would keep a close eye on the starting line ups next week. He has already been backed from a no-hoper priced at 230.0 on the exchange, and now at 130.0, a potential dark horse.
Marcus Rashford: The last biggest mover at a big price is Marcus Rashford who not only scored for England, but scored a worldie. England still have a few options up front but Rashford will be hoping that strike will have earned him more playing time. The market certainly thinks as much. Rashford was the biggest mover from 370.0 all the way into 160.0.
The top scorer market is an interesting one and you have to look out for the darkhorses. Rodriguez was a 150/1 winner last time out.
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