World Cup 2018: Battle for Top Scorer
Ronaldo and Romelu Lukaku will go into the last round of group games level on 4 goals each. Lukaku has made it to 4 goals in less playing time.
Ronaldo will have a chance to take a clear lead when Portugal face Iran - Iran held out well against Spain but realistically you would expect Portugal to win, and Portugal have to score, group qualification is not secured yet for the Portugese. Portugal may also be motivated to run up a big goal difference because 1st in the group may give a slightly more favourable route through the Round of 16 and Quarters than 2nd.
Belgium's final group match is against England. It could be tight. Or, with both teams already qualified the coach might decide to rest players. Also the winner of the Belgium group will be sent on course to meet either Brazil or Germany in the Quarter Final. It all contributes to the opinion that England versus Belgium might not be the most competitive match. However over 2.5 goals is trading at 2.2 on betfair exchange for this match, in comparison over 2.5 goals for Iran vs Portugal is a slightly bigger price (less likely) at 2.54. So it implies more goals in the Belgian game but you do get the feeling that the goals will be more evenly split in the Belgian match.
After the group Portugal look on course to face Russia and then one of France/Argentina. Belgium could face Japan and then as mentioned before one of Brazil/Germany. Despite the apparent more difficult route, Belgium are 13/8 to reach the semi and Portugal are longer odds at 10/3. Reaching the semi is important in that it guarantees the maximum games and so maximises the opportunities to score. With the pressure off in a third place play-off Lukaku could run riot.
I'll go for Lukaku. Russia have continually been under estimated, they could end Portugal in the Round of 16 and if they don't France are gaining momentum slowly. The odds point to Belgium making it deeper, and also point to more goals in Belgium's last group game which is a bit counter intuitive given the scenario. If Lukaku can get his fair share in that match he has got to be favourite - he'll be eyeing up the Japanese or Senegalese defence in the Round of 16.
The other notable mentions are:
Harry Kane: Harry has a game in hand versus Panama and if the England group goes the way expected by the bookies and England finish 2nd. Then the route to the semi for England could look like, Senegal in Round of 16 and then Mexico/Switzerland. Clearly at this point in the competition no games are easy, but Mexico/Switzerland in a quarter is definitely more favourable than Brazil/Germany.
Diego Costa: Costa is two goals behind but is the scoring focal point of the Spanish team, whereas the Belgians spread their goals around a bit more. It also looks like Spain will have the easiest ride to the semi's. They are likely to face Uruguay and then Croatia/Denmark in the quarters.
Neymar: Neymar opened up as favourite but Brazil have not impressed a great deal so far and he is already 3 goals behind.
Ronaldo will have a chance to take a clear lead when Portugal face Iran - Iran held out well against Spain but realistically you would expect Portugal to win, and Portugal have to score, group qualification is not secured yet for the Portugese. Portugal may also be motivated to run up a big goal difference because 1st in the group may give a slightly more favourable route through the Round of 16 and Quarters than 2nd.
Belgium's final group match is against England. It could be tight. Or, with both teams already qualified the coach might decide to rest players. Also the winner of the Belgium group will be sent on course to meet either Brazil or Germany in the Quarter Final. It all contributes to the opinion that England versus Belgium might not be the most competitive match. However over 2.5 goals is trading at 2.2 on betfair exchange for this match, in comparison over 2.5 goals for Iran vs Portugal is a slightly bigger price (less likely) at 2.54. So it implies more goals in the Belgian game but you do get the feeling that the goals will be more evenly split in the Belgian match.
After the group Portugal look on course to face Russia and then one of France/Argentina. Belgium could face Japan and then as mentioned before one of Brazil/Germany. Despite the apparent more difficult route, Belgium are 13/8 to reach the semi and Portugal are longer odds at 10/3. Reaching the semi is important in that it guarantees the maximum games and so maximises the opportunities to score. With the pressure off in a third place play-off Lukaku could run riot.
I'll go for Lukaku. Russia have continually been under estimated, they could end Portugal in the Round of 16 and if they don't France are gaining momentum slowly. The odds point to Belgium making it deeper, and also point to more goals in Belgium's last group game which is a bit counter intuitive given the scenario. If Lukaku can get his fair share in that match he has got to be favourite - he'll be eyeing up the Japanese or Senegalese defence in the Round of 16.
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| Probability trend for top scorer market - probabilities calculated from betfair exchange prices. |
The other notable mentions are:
Harry Kane: Harry has a game in hand versus Panama and if the England group goes the way expected by the bookies and England finish 2nd. Then the route to the semi for England could look like, Senegal in Round of 16 and then Mexico/Switzerland. Clearly at this point in the competition no games are easy, but Mexico/Switzerland in a quarter is definitely more favourable than Brazil/Germany.
Diego Costa: Costa is two goals behind but is the scoring focal point of the Spanish team, whereas the Belgians spread their goals around a bit more. It also looks like Spain will have the easiest ride to the semi's. They are likely to face Uruguay and then Croatia/Denmark in the quarters.
Neymar: Neymar opened up as favourite but Brazil have not impressed a great deal so far and he is already 3 goals behind.
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