World Cup Top Scorer

When looking for he top scorer it can be useful to consider teams that go deep in the tournament... but how deep? ... and how important is it really?

Probabilities (based on betfair prices)
 of 1) reaching the semi and 2) being
eliminated at the semi. Are those who are
eliminated in the semi final more likely to
score in the playoff game?

Each team that makes the semi's will play the max amount of possible games, and 24 of the all the previous top scorers (29 in total) made it to at least the semi's. So no need to be over restrictive here at all, widen your net beyond the Brazilians and the Germans.  In fact only 6 of the 29 were part of the team that won the World Cup. There are many teams with a shot at the semis. Think beyond just the title contenders.

Actually think about the 3rd/4th place play off. 10 of the previous golden boot winners won the playoff. The playoff can be more free flowing and less tense and tactical than the final. In this century there have been goals in the playoff match - 17. In the finals in the same period there have only been 6. The all time average goals is 3.9 in the playoff and 3.5 goals in the final. So there are more goals to be had in the playoff and the trend is exaggerated in more recent times.

Count of goals in Final vs 3rd Place Playoff

Stage of elimination for all
previous golden boot winners

But how important is it really to go deep? In 94 Salenko of Russia won the accolade without making it past the group stage. Rodriguez of Colombia is the most recent winner and he was eliminated in the QF. Five of the 29 players were eliminated before the semi but were still able to put together enough goals. The problem with going deep is the deeper you go, the harder the opposition, the tougher it is to score.

With all that said i am going to go for Edison Cavani at 25/1. I am not putting big emphasis on going deep, but at the same time Uruguay are kept apart from both the favourites (Brazil and Germany) early in the tournament. They should go far and it's possible they make at least the semi's. But more importantly Uruguay are arguably in the easiest group of all time! Cavani is guaranteed a start if hes fit.

I will also mention Mbappe for France who looks like a decent price at 33/1.

World Cup	Player	Team	Goals scored	Matches played	Stage of Elimnation
1930	Guillermo Stábile	Argentina	8	4	R/U
1934	Oldřich Nejedlý	Czechoslovakia	5	4	R/U
1938	Leônidas	Brazil	7	5	3rd
1950	Ademir	Brazil	8	6	R/U
1954	Sándor Kocsis	Hungary	11	5	R/U
1958	Just Fontaine	France	13	6	3rd
1962	Garrincha	Brazil	4	6	Won
1962	Vavá	Brazil	4	6	Won
1962	Leonel Sánchez	Chile	4	6	3rd
1962	Flórián Albert	Hungary	4	4	1/4
1962	Valentin Ivanov	Soviet Union	4	4	1/4
1962	Dražan Jerković	Yugoslavia	4	6	4th
1966	Eusébio	Portugal	9	6	3rd
1970	Gerd Müller	West Germany	10	6	3rd
1974	Grzegorz Lato	Poland	7	7	3rd
1978	Mario Kempes	Argentina	6	7	Won
1982	Paolo Rossi	Italy	6	7	Won
1986	Gary Lineker	England	6	5	1/4
1990	Salvatore Schillaci	Italy	6	7	3rd
1994	Hristo Stoichkov	Bulgaria	6	7	4th
1994	Oleg Salenko	Russia	6	3	Group
1998	Davor Šuker	Croatia	6	7	3rd
2002	Ronaldo	Brazil	8	7	Won
2006	Miroslav Klose	Germany	5	7	3rd
2010	Thomas Müller	Germany	5	6	3rd
2010	David Villa	Spain	5	7	Won
2010	Wesley Sneijder	Netherlands	5	7	R/U
2010	Diego Forlán	Uruguay	5	7	4th
2014	James Rodríguez	Colombia	6	5	1/4

Table of previous Golden boot winners