A Betfair offer to rival Paddy Power?

Last season Paddy Power ran a promo on the top goalscorer in the Premier League. They are bringing it back this season to my delight. I have my bets in already - see here. Betfair don't want to lose the market to Paddy and have come out with a similar offer. See their website here.
Paddy Power vs Betfair

The Original offer.

1. You only need to stake €20. This is a pro. The Bookie is sure to have a nice little edge built into this market. You can probably expect to lose 10-20% back to the bookie here. So long term this offer will cost you about €2 to €4.

2. You can back multiple scorers and get free bets on each one. This is a huge pro - its the offer that keeps giving. I would draw the line at 3 players as there is a €10 free bet limit per week. So after 5 goals per week you can't earn any more value.

3. You only get €2 free bet each time your pick scores (up to a max €10 per customer per week). On first sight this looks like a con. But if your man scores twice then you get €4 or a hattrick earns you a €6 free bet which beats Betfair's offer in that scenario. 

4. The promotions runs the entire season - 38 matches.

5. A contender for top scorer will hopefully be knocking in 20 plus goals in the season. That would earn us €40 in free bets. If you are clever you should be able to make €32 in real money back from those free bets. This is a great offer and the value (estimated €32) outweighs the cost (estimated €2-€4).

Summary
Cost: €2-€4 * 3
Value: €32+ * 3
Expected Profit: €84+

The Rival offer.
1. You need to stake €25. Betfair are forcing you to pony up more of your own real money than Paddy. In the long run they will keep 10-20% on a market like this. So effectively it will cost you about €2.50 to €5 to qualify for the promotion.

2. Only the first qualifying cash bet counts. If you back a second goal scorer you cannot earn free bets from his goals. This is a big con for me. With Paddy you can hedge your bets a little and have 3 or 4 players earning you free bets.

3. You get €5 free bet for every game that your pick scores in. This is both a pro and a con. Pro because a €5 is quite generous compared to Paddy's €2. However a con because if your guy scores twice or three times in the match it is still just €5.

4. The promotions only runs to October - for most teams that will be only 11 chances to earn a free bet.

5. A contender for top scorer will hopefully be knocking in 20 plus goals in the season (38 games). So we could expect maybe 6 goals in the first 11 matches to keep on track. 6 goals does not necessarily mean 6 free bets - you only get one free bet if he scores twice in the same match. For arguments sake assume 5 free bets in the first 11 matches for €25 in free bets. If you are clever you should be able to get close to €20 real money back from those free bets. Which is a decent return and definitely outweighs the estimated cost of about €2.50 to €5.

Summary
Cost: €2.50-€5
Value: €20+
Expected Profit: €15+
Verdict

 Paddypower's offer wins hands down in terms of value. The two major advantages being that you can back multiple players and that you can earn free bets the entire season.

 Betfair's version of the offer is still worth playing. I estimate a positive expected value. So get on both! Aguero may be sitting out the first match of the season for Man City to allow an extra break for the Copa America players. He will have only 10 chances to earn you a free bet on Betfair. Also, a note for those who fancy Harry Kane, Tottenham's 11th game falls just outside the offer period, so Kane too will only have 10 chances to earn free bets.

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