World Cup 2018: The story so far
I have been watching the odds trends to try and figure out what actually matters. The media narratives can be strong, they can be convincing, but ultimately they can be wide of the mark. Spain's price only wobbled when it was announced that their manager was sacked, they drifted amid the speculation and media frenzy but they were back to the same price within 24 hours. England made a lot about getting on the "easy" side of the draw, which they achieved. It only moved their price from 9.4 pre match to 9.0 after the match. Belgium's odds for taking the "hard" way were 8.0 pre match and have settled at 8.2 now - hardly significant.
So what did matter?
Can you put in a performance in 3 games so good/bad that the market will re-assess your chances significantly? Is it a matter of getting a good draw and taking advantage of a void left by a team like Germany?
Germany getting knocked out mattered a lot. It benefited Brazil, they were slightly drifting as the prospect of a Round 16 clash with the Germans had looked probable. The moment the Germans were removed from the equation Brazil moved from an implied 14% chance of winning the tournament to 18%. Spain on the total other side of the draw did not benefit the same, only moving from 16% to 18%.
Argentina's poor performance mattered. It hurt not only their chances but also France's chances by setting up a tough Round of 16 clash for both teams. It hurt Argentina a little more drifting from 11.0 to 17.0, France 8.6 to 10.5. As well as France and Argentina the only other survivor to drift going into the Round of 16 are Portugal. Only a small slide from 25.0 out to 28.0, they will also be affected by shifting Argentina into that quarter of the draw. Portugal are pencilled in to play France or Argentina in the Quarters if things go well for them.
The fact that Argentina drifted more than France indicates that the market took both the poor performance and the difficult draw into account while reassessing Argentina. I think it is a dangerous thing to reassess a team based on 3 matches. In particular in England's case. They are big winners going from 18.5 to 9.0 on the exchange. This in part based on removing the Germans and getting an easy side of the draw. However, both sides of the draw can't be easy and Belgium have also significantly shortened (12.0 into 8.2). I would oppose these movements, comfortable wins against Tunisia and Panama for both and a meaningless dead rubber don't really give us any extra information on the talent of their squads.
You would also think that Brazil would have a better chance now than they had at the start of the tournament. They have progressed to the knockout stage. They have avoided Germany in the Round of 16. However their betfair price is now the same as their price before the tournament. They perhaps have not performed to the level expected, and Mexico in the Round of 16 looks like a tougher prospect than it would have before. Also, apart from the German elimination there are no other shock eliminations, so it is still quite a strong field.
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