Make money on Peru vs Paraguay
The third/fourth place play-off often is a meaningless affair. So lets put some meaning into it by putting some interesting bets.
Check out Paddy Powers offer. Bet €20 and win €10 in free bets. We can make this work.
Tip 1: Always put your real money bet on the most likely outcomes.
There is two reasons for this really.
1. This gives you a more stable balance, winning a little a lot instead of winning a lot a little. You're less likely to deplete your bankroll waiting for your wins to come in.
2. The bookie's seem to offer better value on the favourites. See some analysis here.
The promotion limits you to odds of 1/2 or higher. So we are looking for outcomes like: First Half Under 1.5 goals @ 1/2, Peru under 6 corners @ 1/2, Both teams to score @ 8/15. Pick as many bets like this as you like, so that the total real money staked makes €20.
Tip 2: Always put your FREE bets on the long shots
The bookie returns the winnings from the FREE bet only. They don't return the stake. So if you bet on evens, a free €10 will win you €10 about 50% of the time (average €5). But if you bet on 9/1 then a free €10 will win you €90 about 10% of the time (average €9). So its simple maths. In reality the bookie builds in less value on the long shots - for example the 9/1 shot won't be winning 10% of the time but maybe only 5%. So there seems to be a tipping point where the outcome really is too unlikely that its not even worth a free bet. Some analysis here (on the Win-Draw-Win market) suggests the tipping point is about 7/1 or 13/2.
You can get Peru to be leading at ten minutes at 13/2, or Peru to win both halves is also 13/2. These odds may change or become unavailable for the in-play markets, but its outcomes like this to watch for.
Conclusion
When I see promotions like "Bet €20, get €10 free"; I read it as "Give us €2 (assuming something like a 10% edge), we will give you between €5 and €8 back (in the long run you will rarely win the full value of the €10's back)". So in this case it makes sense to jump on the offer.
I am up over €200 on this promotion so far, and wonder how Paddy Power can afford to continue it, but I suppose it takes a bit of a switch to be able to take full value. The Jackpot Chasers will probably lose a lot of their real money that the free bets wont make up. The Risk Averse will probably not make enough money off the free bets to make it worth their while. You need to be able to switch from Risk Averse to Jackpot Chaser for your free bets and to make any money in the long run.
Check out Paddy Powers offer. Bet €20 and win €10 in free bets. We can make this work.
Tip 1: Always put your real money bet on the most likely outcomes.
There is two reasons for this really.
1. This gives you a more stable balance, winning a little a lot instead of winning a lot a little. You're less likely to deplete your bankroll waiting for your wins to come in.
2. The bookie's seem to offer better value on the favourites. See some analysis here.
The promotion limits you to odds of 1/2 or higher. So we are looking for outcomes like: First Half Under 1.5 goals @ 1/2, Peru under 6 corners @ 1/2, Both teams to score @ 8/15. Pick as many bets like this as you like, so that the total real money staked makes €20.
Tip 2: Always put your FREE bets on the long shots
The bookie returns the winnings from the FREE bet only. They don't return the stake. So if you bet on evens, a free €10 will win you €10 about 50% of the time (average €5). But if you bet on 9/1 then a free €10 will win you €90 about 10% of the time (average €9). So its simple maths. In reality the bookie builds in less value on the long shots - for example the 9/1 shot won't be winning 10% of the time but maybe only 5%. So there seems to be a tipping point where the outcome really is too unlikely that its not even worth a free bet. Some analysis here (on the Win-Draw-Win market) suggests the tipping point is about 7/1 or 13/2.
You can get Peru to be leading at ten minutes at 13/2, or Peru to win both halves is also 13/2. These odds may change or become unavailable for the in-play markets, but its outcomes like this to watch for.
Conclusion
When I see promotions like "Bet €20, get €10 free"; I read it as "Give us €2 (assuming something like a 10% edge), we will give you between €5 and €8 back (in the long run you will rarely win the full value of the €10's back)". So in this case it makes sense to jump on the offer.
I am up over €200 on this promotion so far, and wonder how Paddy Power can afford to continue it, but I suppose it takes a bit of a switch to be able to take full value. The Jackpot Chasers will probably lose a lot of their real money that the free bets wont make up. The Risk Averse will probably not make enough money off the free bets to make it worth their while. You need to be able to switch from Risk Averse to Jackpot Chaser for your free bets and to make any money in the long run.
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