Attack vs Defense

Dundalk host Cork City on the last game of the season in a classic game of Attack vs Defense.  Nobody has scored more goals than Dundalk (71), but Cork have the meanest defense (only 23 goals conceded this season).

 Dundalk have scored 20 goals more than Cork City this term, which might lead you to imagine that Dundalk are better finishers.  In fact both teams goals per shot conversion rate is very similar.  Both sets of forwards are doing an equally good job at finishing.  The key stat, however, in Dundalk's favour is the huge amount of shots that they create per match.  They have close to 14 shots per game which dwarfs Cork who don't even reach double digits on average.  Dundalk's creativity has been their main strength this season.

Attacking Stats Dundalk vs Cork
Chart:  Attacking stats for Cork vs Dundalk

Looking further behind the stats - you see nothing special about the Cork team at first.  Their average shots created per games is actually on a par with Athlone Town's.  In general they hand their opponents two more chances per game than Dundalk do.  The stats also show that Cork generally allow as many shots per game as they create for themselves.  These stats on their own would make Cork City no more than an average mid table team.

 Their key stat though is their denial rate.  Of all the shots that they face, they deny more than any other team in the league.  Cork City have only conceded 1 goal per 12 shots faced - indicating that they limit the opposition to poor chances (long shots) or that their last line of defense is almost impenetrable. 
Defending Stats Dundalk vs Cork
Chart: Defending stats for Cork vs Dundalk

Even considering their denial rate, it's hard to see Cork keeping a clean sheet against Dundalk going by the sheer number of chances that Dundalk usually create, especially since Dundalk are at home.  So, in my opinion, Cork will have to score themselves.  They need at least a draw to win the title.  They should be able to score (they do have a great conversion rate).  The only doubt is, whether or not they can create the chances.

Shot data on the League of Ireland is available on http://ie.soccerway.com.  The soccerway data is summarised below to show the total shots per season for and against each team.



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