This could get complicated 

This is a "blogging out loud" article.




/*
Scenario details below the summaries.


Summary 
---------
Scenario 1: Ireland auto qualify
Scenario 2: Locked in to playing Slovakia away and a final vs Bosnia or N. Ireland.
Scenario 3: 25% chance to escape Path B and play Hungary/Romania at home and a final vs another Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary 
            75% chance still locked into Path B as a lower seed so away vs Bosnia, Slovakia or Turkey.
            UEFA might block the escape option for IRE as hosts to ensure Path B has a Host, Path C will already have Scotland and Path A will take the overflow Hungary or/and Romania. All hosts.
            UEFA may pick the teams to stay in their Path by Rank, in which case Ireland would stay and N. Ireland would be the team to escape.
Scenario 4: 25% chance to escape Path B and play Hungary/Israel at home and a final vs another Iceland, Israel or Hungary 
            75% chance still locked into Path B as a lower seed so away vs Bosnia, Slovakia or Czech.
            UEFA might block the escape option for IRE as hosts to ensure Path B has a Host, Path C will already have Scotland and Path A will take the overflow of League C potentially Hungary. All hosts.
            UEFA may pick the teams to stay in their Path by Rank, in which case Ireland would stay and N. Ireland would be the team to escape.
Scenario 5: 25% chance to escape Path B and play Bulgaria/Israel at home and a final vs another Iceland, Israel or Hungary 
            75% chance still locked into Path B as a lower seed so away vs Bosnia, Slovakia or Wales.
            UEFA might block the escape option for IRE as hosts to ensure Path B has a Host, Path C will already have Scotland and Path A will take the overflow of League C potentially Hungary. All hosts.
            UEFA may pick the teams to stay in their Path by Rank, in which case Ireland would stay and N. Ireland would be the team to escape.
Scenario 6: 25% chance to escape Path B and play Bulgaria/Israel at home and a final vs another Iceland, Israel or Hungary 
            75% chance still locked into Path B as a lower seed so away vs Bosnia, Slovakia or Wales.
            UEFA might block the escape option for IRE as hosts to ensure Path B has a Host, Path C will already have Scotland and Path A will take the overflow of League C potentially Hungary. All hosts.
            UEFA may pick the teams to stay in their Path by Rank, in which case Ireland would stay and N. Ireland would be the team to escape.
Scenario 7: Ireland could escape Path B but it wouldnt do much good as this scenario has got more Legaue B teams in Path A. So it makes no difference. It is a semi final away vs one of the higher rankded 
            League B teams Bosnia, Austria, Wales, Czech or Slovakia.
Scenario 8: Ireland auto qualify.
Scenario 9: Ireland auto qualify.
Scenario 10: 40% chance to escape Path B and have a home game vs Bulgaria, Israel, Hungary but the higher ranked League B (Czech, Turkey, Slovakia) teams come back into it for the final if they beat their League C overflow
             60% chance Ireland are locked into Path B with higher ranked B teams, setting up an away semi vs Bosnia, Slovakia, Czech or Turkey and a final vs the same teams or N. Ireland..
             UEFA might block the escape option for IRE as hosts to ensure Path B has a Host, Path C will already have Scotland and Path A will take the overflow of League C potentially Hungary. All hosts.
             UEFA may pick the teams to stay in their Path by Rank, in which case Ireland would definitely one to escape along with N. Ireland.
Scenario 11: 40% chance to escape Path B and have a home game but away vs higher ranked League B (Czech, Turkey, Slovakia) unless N.Ireland also escape and IRE would play NIR at home as higher rank final vs Iceland or League C overflow


             60% chance Ireland are locked into Path B with higher ranked B teams, setting up an away semi vs Bosnia, Slovakia, Czech or Wales and a final vs the same teams or N. Ireland..
             UEFA shouldn't block the escape option for IRE as hosts, Path C will already have Scotland and But no hosts in Path A or B so it wont matter.
             UEFA may pick the teams to stay in their Path by Rank, in which case Ireland would definitely one to escape along with N. Ireland.







Generalised Summary
-------------------
Exactly Four League B teams end up in the playoff or more than 4 League B teams are in the playoffs but Ireland do not escape (either unlucky in the draw, or they pick team to escape by rank, or they restrict Ireland to Path B as a host)
Semi final away versus Bosnia, Slovakia, Wales, Turkey, Czech; Final at venue decided by draw versus Bosnia, Slovakia, Wales, Turkey, Czech, N. Ireland.

5 League B teams in the playoff and the rules of the draw (which are not yet decided) allow for Ireland to escape to Path A, and they are lucky to be picked.
Semi final home versus Hungary, Bulgaria, Israel; Final at venue decided by draw versus Iceland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Israel

6 League B teams in the playoff and the rules of the draw (which are not yet decided) allow for Ireland to escape to Path A, and they are lucky to be picked.
Semi final home versus Hungary, Bulgaria, Israel; Final at venue decided by draw versus Iceland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Israel, or another League B team

7 or 8 League B teams in the playoff just dampens the enthusiams to escape Path B because Path A will be more or less full of higher ranked League B teams anyway. 

Scenario 1 (current):
---------------------
League A: SWI/NED/ISL
League B: BOS/AUT/WAL
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL/ISR/HUN
League D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS

Path D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS  (GEO vs BLS) vs (MAC vs KOS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN  (SCO vs BUL/ISR/HUN) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS/AUT/WAL + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN  (BOS vs BUL/ISR/HUN) vs (AUT vs WAL)
Path A: SWI/NED/ISL + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN  (SWI vs BUL/ISR/HUN) vs (NED vs ISL)

Scenario 2 (most probable):
---------------------------
League A: ISL
League B: BOS/SVK/IRL/NIR
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM
League D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS

Path D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS                     (GEO vs BLS) vs (MAC vs KOS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM  (SCO vs BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS/SVK/IRL/NIR                     (BOS vs NIR) vs (SVK vs IRL)
Path A: ISL + 3 of BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM          (ISL vs HUN/ROM) vs (BUL/ISR vs ISR/HUN)

* simple alternative replace SVK with WAL if Slovakia qualify directly ahead of Wales (odds 2.75, prob 36%)

Scenario 3 - Iceland qualify (odds 2.37, prob 42%):
---------------------------
League A: 
League B: BOS/SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM
League D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS

Path D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS                                  (GEO vs BLS) vs (MAC vs KOS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM               (SCO vs BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS + 3 of SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR                       (BOS vs IRL/NIR) vs (SVK/TUR vs TUR/IRL)
Path A: 1 of SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR + 3 of BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM      (SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR vs HUN/ROM) vs (BUL/ISR vs ISR/HUN)


Scenario 4 - Kosovo qualify (odds 2.25, prob 44%):
---------------------------
League A: ISL
League B: BOS/CZE/SVK/IRL/NIR
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL/ISR/HUN
League D: GEO/MAC/BLS/LUX

Path D: GEO/MAC/BLS/LUX                                  (GEO vs LUX) vs (MAC vs BLS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN                   (SCO vs BUL/ISR/HUN) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS + 3 of CZE/SVK/IRL/NIR                       (BOS vs IRL/NIR) vs (CZE/SVK vs SVK/IRL)
Path A: ISL + 1 of CZE/SVK/IRL/NIR + 2 of BUL/ISR/HUN    (ISL vs ISR/HUN) vs (CZE/SVK/IRL/NIR vs BUL/ISR)


Scenario 5 - Hungary qualify (odds 2.87, prob 35%):
---------------------------
League A: ISL
League B: BOS/WAL/SVK/IRL/NIR
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL/ISR/ROM
League D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS

Path D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS                                  (GEO vs BLS) vs (MAC vs KOS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB + 1 of BUL/ISR/ROM                   (SCO vs BUL/ISR/ROM) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS + 3 of WAL/SVK/IRL/NIR                       (BOS vs IRL/NIR) vs (WAL/SVK vs SVK/IRL)
Path A: ISL + 1 of WAL/SVK/IRL/NIR + 2 of BUL/ISR/ROM    (ISL vs ISR/ROM) vs (WAL/SVK/IRL/NIR vs BUL/ISR)

select 1.00/3.25 ;

Scenario 6 - Slovenia qualify (odds 3.5, prob 31%)
---------------------------
League A: ISL
League B: BOS/AUT/SVK/IRL/NIR
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL/ISR/HUN
League D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS

Path D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS                                  (GEO vs BLS) vs (MAC vs KOS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN                   (SCO vs BUL/ISR/HUN/SLV) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS + 3 of AUT/SVK/IRL/NIR                       (BOS vs IRL/NIR) vs (AUT/SVK vs SVK/IRL)
Path A: ISL + 1 of AUT/SVK/IRL/NIR + 2 of BUL/ISR/HUN    (ISL vs ISR/HUN) vs (AUT/SVK/IRL/NIR vs BUL/ISR)

* simple alternative replace ISR with SLV if Israel qualify directly ahead of bot Slovenia and Austria (odds 3.75, prob 27%)

Scenario 7 - Slovenia (31%), Hungary (35%), Kosovo (44%), Iceland (42%) qualify (combined chance 2%)
---------------------------
League A: 
League B: BOS/AUT/WAL/CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL
League D: GEO/MAC/BLS/LUX

Path D: GEO/MAC/BLS/LUX                                  (GEO vs LUX) vs (MAC vs BLS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL                          (SCO vs BUL) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS + 3 of AUT/WAL/CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR   (BOS vs CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR) vs (AUT/WAL/CZE/SVK/TUR vs WAL/CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL)
Path A: 4 of AUT/WAL/CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR         (AUT/WAL/CZE/SVK vs SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR) vs (WAL/CZE/SVK/TUR vs CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL)



Scenario 8 Ireland Qualify (odss 1.8, prob 56%):
---------------------------
League A: ISL
League B: BOS/DEN/SVK/NIR
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM
League D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS

Path D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS                     (GEO vs BLS) vs (MAC vs KOS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM  (SCO vs BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS/DEN/SVK/NIR                     (BOS vs NIR) vs (DEN vs SVK)
Path A: ISL + 3 of BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM          (ISL vs HUN/ROM) vs (BUL/ISR vs ISR/HUN)


Scenario 9 Denmark and Ireland qualify (odds Switzerland qualify is 1.2, 83%, then 17% they don't):
---------------------------
League A: SWI/ISL
League B: BOS/SVK/NIR
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM
League D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS

Path D: GEO/MAC/KOS/BLS                     (GEO vs BLS) vs (MAC vs KOS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM  (SCO vs BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS/SVK/NIR + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM  (BOS vs NIR) vs (SVK vs IRL)
Path A: SWI/ISL + 2 of BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM      (SWI vs ISR/HUN/ROM) vs (ISL vs BUL/ISR/HUN)



Scenario 10 - Iceland (42%) and Kosovo(44%) qualify (combind 18%):
---------------------------
League A: 
League B: BOS/CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL/ISR/HUN
League D: GEO/MAC/BLS/LUX

Path D: GEO/MAC/BLS/LUX                     (GEO vs LUX) vs (MAC vs BLS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB + 1 of BUL/ISR/HUN      (SCO vs BUL/ISR/HUN) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS + 3 of CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR      (BOS vs TUR/IRL/NIR) vs (CZE/SVK/TUR vs SVK/TUR/IRL)
Path A: 2 of CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR + 2 of BUL/ISR/HUN    (CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR vs BUL/ISR/HUN) vs (CZE/SVK/TUR/IRL/NIR vs BUL/ISR/HUN)

* simple alternative replace SVK with WAL if Slovakia qualify directly ahead of Wales (odds 2.75, prob 36%)





Scenario 11 - Hungary qualify (prob 35%) and Kosovo(44%) qualify (combind 15%)::
---------------------------
League A: ISL
League B: BOS/WAL/CZE/SVK/IRL/NIR
League C: SCO/NOR/SRB/BUL/ISR
League D: GEO/MAC/BLS/LUX

Path D: GEO/MAC/BLS/LUX                          (GEO vs LUX) vs (MAC vs BLS)
Path C: SCO/NOR/SRB + 1 of BUL/ISR               (SCO vs BUL/ISR) vs (NOR vs SRB)
Path B: BOS + 3 of WAL/CZE/SVK/IRL/NIR           (BOS vs IRL/NIR) vs (WAL/SVK vs SVK/IRL)
Path A: ISL + 1 of WAL/CZE/SVK/IRL/NIR + 2 of BUL/ISR    (ISL vs ISR) vs (WAL/CZE/SVK/IRL/NIR vs BUL)



































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