Escape to Path A
Ireland must put everything into achieving direct qualification by securing a Top 2 position. This will bypass the headache of a difficult playoff and give them a better seeding for the Finals (probably Pot 2 for winning the group, probably Pot 3 for runner up). Qualification via the playoff only earns Pot 4.
The playoffs will be a headache. No matter how you form a Path with Ireland and 3 other League B teams then Ireland would be 3rd or 4th ranked in that Path. That simply means a single leg semi final versus a higher ranked League B team, followed by a single leg final against another League B team (home/away decided by draw), and unless N. Ireland scramble their way to a Path B final then again it will be a higher ranked team for Ireland. They would likely be underdog for both matches and maybe away for both matches too. Imagine Slovakia (or Wales) vs Ireland with the winner playing Bosnia - this is one of the most likely scenarios at the moment.
That is why I will talk about escaping Path B.
Why? Well Path A will be made of left over teams from League C. This is because Path C is likely to be overfilled and Path A is likely to only contain Iceland or be completely empty!
How? Well the Nations League is already played and all positions are finalised. Ireland cannot improve their rank. It should serve a reminder for next time around the disadvantages of being a lower ranked team in any of the Leagues. Even if Ireland were a middle ranked team, just above Slovakia then they'd be virtually assured at least a home semi at this point. For Euro 2020 it is out of Ireland's hands, but gives Irish supporters the excuse to show an added interest in some of the other groups.
Okay. So back to the escape plan. The formation of the playoff has certain conditions including:
This means that if only four League B teams enter the playoffs then there is no escape. They must all form Path B together.
The escape plan is activated when there is 5 League B teams in the playoff positions, or 6. With 7 or 8 League B teams in the playoffs it defeats the purpose of escaping - you will escape Path B into a new Path but still mostly made up of Path B teams, so its no help.
So who do Irish fans have to cheer for to engineer the golden five or six?
It is currently likely that Bosnia, Slovakia (or Wales), Ireland and Northern Ireland are the League B playoff representatives. So firstly Ireland can hope that it remains like this cheering Finland and Armenia over Bosnia (Group J), Croatia over Slovakia and Wales (Group E) and Netherlands and Germany over N. Ireland (Group C). All of this should play out as expected though.
It is currently close between Iceland and Turkey (Group H), Wales/Slovakia and Hungary (Group E), Czech Republic and Kosovo (Group A), Austria and Slovenia (Group G). If one or two of Iceland, Hungary, Kosovo and Slovenia cause a minor upset here then there would potentially be 5 or 6 League B teams in the playoffs and Ireland would have their escape path. Don't cheer too loudly though because if three or four of these minor upsets happen then the escape would be the equivalent of escaping the frying pan to get into the fire.
In my opinion, the ideal scenario is Iceland qualify automatically and drop Turkey into the League B playoff spots, that would be enough and not too much. It also conveniently removes Iceland and probably all the League A teams from Path A. In that case Path A would likely consist of the one League B team that escapes (hopefully Ireland) and three League C teams.
Is this plan fool proof? Erm. No. The truth is there is only a small chance that Ireland would escape, it would likely be a draw to see which 1 team of 4 gets out (excluding Bosnia from the draw as Group Winners they shouldn't move). UEFA have not released full details of the draw so there is the chance still that it would all be in vain. The plan could be derailed if UEFA decide to form the Paths based on rank or some other seeding. The plan could also be derailed if UEFA decide to keep the Official Euro 2020 Host teams in separate Paths. In that case Ireland will be the one stuck in Path B as its likely that Hungary and Romania would over flow from Path C into Path A. This exact condition is not confirmed by UEFA rules but is hinted at:
A lot of this might lead us back to where we started, i.e. Ireland stuck as no better than 3rd ranked team joining a Path of League B teams. So have I wasted your time in reading this article? No, I don't think so, if anything it underlines how much of a headache this playoff route would be for Ireland. Ireland need to qualify directly. Beat Georgia away on 12th October. Then there are two shots first at Switzerland at home on the 15th October and then Denmark away on the 18th of November. Pick up 2 or more points in those final fixtures and Ireland are safely through.
The playoffs will be a headache. No matter how you form a Path with Ireland and 3 other League B teams then Ireland would be 3rd or 4th ranked in that Path. That simply means a single leg semi final versus a higher ranked League B team, followed by a single leg final against another League B team (home/away decided by draw), and unless N. Ireland scramble their way to a Path B final then again it will be a higher ranked team for Ireland. They would likely be underdog for both matches and maybe away for both matches too. Imagine Slovakia (or Wales) vs Ireland with the winner playing Bosnia - this is one of the most likely scenarios at the moment.
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| Table 1: Projected playoff team selections |
That is why I will talk about escaping Path B.
Why? Well Path A will be made of left over teams from League C. This is because Path C is likely to be overfilled and Path A is likely to only contain Iceland or be completely empty!
How? Well the Nations League is already played and all positions are finalised. Ireland cannot improve their rank. It should serve a reminder for next time around the disadvantages of being a lower ranked team in any of the Leagues. Even if Ireland were a middle ranked team, just above Slovakia then they'd be virtually assured at least a home semi at this point. For Euro 2020 it is out of Ireland's hands, but gives Irish supporters the excuse to show an added interest in some of the other groups.
Okay. So back to the escape plan. The formation of the playoff has certain conditions including:
If four or more teams from a league enter the play-offs, a path with four teams from the league in question must be formed.
This means that if only four League B teams enter the playoffs then there is no escape. They must all form Path B together.
The escape plan is activated when there is 5 League B teams in the playoff positions, or 6. With 7 or 8 League B teams in the playoffs it defeats the purpose of escaping - you will escape Path B into a new Path but still mostly made up of Path B teams, so its no help.
So who do Irish fans have to cheer for to engineer the golden five or six?
It is currently likely that Bosnia, Slovakia (or Wales), Ireland and Northern Ireland are the League B playoff representatives. So firstly Ireland can hope that it remains like this cheering Finland and Armenia over Bosnia (Group J), Croatia over Slovakia and Wales (Group E) and Netherlands and Germany over N. Ireland (Group C). All of this should play out as expected though.
It is currently close between Iceland and Turkey (Group H), Wales/Slovakia and Hungary (Group E), Czech Republic and Kosovo (Group A), Austria and Slovenia (Group G). If one or two of Iceland, Hungary, Kosovo and Slovenia cause a minor upset here then there would potentially be 5 or 6 League B teams in the playoffs and Ireland would have their escape path. Don't cheer too loudly though because if three or four of these minor upsets happen then the escape would be the equivalent of escaping the frying pan to get into the fire.
In my opinion, the ideal scenario is Iceland qualify automatically and drop Turkey into the League B playoff spots, that would be enough and not too much. It also conveniently removes Iceland and probably all the League A teams from Path A. In that case Path A would likely consist of the one League B team that escapes (hopefully Ireland) and three League C teams.
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| Table 2: Ideal Scenario for Ireland - 1 too many teams in League B, so potentially moved to Path A with no League A teams involved and join the 3 left over teams from League C. |
Is this plan fool proof? Erm. No. The truth is there is only a small chance that Ireland would escape, it would likely be a draw to see which 1 team of 4 gets out (excluding Bosnia from the draw as Group Winners they shouldn't move). UEFA have not released full details of the draw so there is the chance still that it would all be in vain. The plan could be derailed if UEFA decide to form the Paths based on rank or some other seeding. The plan could also be derailed if UEFA decide to keep the Official Euro 2020 Host teams in separate Paths. In that case Ireland will be the one stuck in Path B as its likely that Hungary and Romania would over flow from Path C into Path A. This exact condition is not confirmed by UEFA rules but is hinted at:
Additional conditions may be applied, subject to approval, including seeding principles and the possibility of final tournament hosts having to be drawn into different paths.
A lot of this might lead us back to where we started, i.e. Ireland stuck as no better than 3rd ranked team joining a Path of League B teams. So have I wasted your time in reading this article? No, I don't think so, if anything it underlines how much of a headache this playoff route would be for Ireland. Ireland need to qualify directly. Beat Georgia away on 12th October. Then there are two shots first at Switzerland at home on the 15th October and then Denmark away on the 18th of November. Pick up 2 or more points in those final fixtures and Ireland are safely through.
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