Nations League
Looking at the potential play off situation for Euro 2020 qualifying. Automatic qualification is already slipping by some but who will have a second chance? What will be the fate of the likes of Iceland, Wales, Ireland, N. Ireland, Romania who are now odds against to qualify straight? Who will be the surprise team from Georgia, Kosovo, Macedona and Belarus who will have an easy playoff path already guaranteed to the Finals?
The four Group Winners (GW) of each of the four Leagues qualify for a play-off. That makes 16 playoff spots, if they qualify directly their place is passed down.
Wikipedia is a good place to start but is in order of current standings, which is unrealistic after so few matches, for example N. Ireland have played 4 matches and won 4 but only home and away against the group minnows. Ireland also are in an artificial position as both Denmark and Switzerland have enough games in hand to catch them. Finally England having only played twice means that their current position is not very informative.
Instead of using "current" position, I will use "likely" position based on Bet365 odds of group qualification (Top 2). In that case, all of League 1 qualify automatically (except probably Iceland) and so all their play-off spots are passed down to the teams next in line. Also most of League B will also qualify. Realistically there will be enough play off spots to pass down to ensure qualification or playoff all the way down to Romania. See below.
Nations League Tables used to calculate the playoff teams. Odds data correct as of 10am Sept 7th
Everyone in League C below Romania cannot feature in a play off. There are 12 playoff spots available to League A, B and C and best case 20 automatic qualifiers. That is enough to accommodate either a play-off or auto-qualification for 32 teams, no more. Greece, Albania, Montenegro and Slovenia for example are highly incentivised to qualify directly through the qualification group.
Romania, Hungary, Israel and Bulgaria are dependent on a play-off berth being handed down (if they dont qualify by themselves. And most likely it will be. However if any lower team qualifies automatically (eg Slovenia 5/2, Kosovo 3/1) then there would not be enough spare play-off berths to share down as far as Romania. Hungary, Israel and Bulgaria are also in this boat - but its more unlikely as you move up the League that enough spots will be taken away by the lower teams.
It is unlikely that this fate would befall anyone in League B there would have to be less than 16 automatic qualifiers from the 24 League A and B teams. Currently 18 of these teams are odds on to qualify. N. Ireland will be the first to lose the playoff place (if only 15), then Ireland (if only 14).
In League D Georgia, Macedonia, Kosovo and Belarus have already guaranteed at least a play off. The next four Luxembourg, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will benefit and take their playoff berth if any of those make auto qualifying (eg. Kosovo currently appear to have a decent chance at 3/1). What is great for these League D teams is that they will be in the same play off path together - so one of those League D teams WILL be at the Finals. It is a great opportunity for Georgia for example who are 66/1 to qualify by Top 2, but the playoff gives a 1 in 4 chance (i.e. 3/1) for these teams - I would expect Georgia/Kosovo (the stronger of the four) to be shorter than 3/1. These teams may quickly shift focus onto the play-offs if their qualification groups turns against them. They could well use the remaining games in the qualification to give experience to younger players, or to experiment with formations.
League C is a bit of a Limbo League, stuck in between League B (almost certain everyone will get a play-off chance) and League D (the Group Winners are guaranteed a playoff place). Although the Group Winners in Group C are also guaranteed it is a much harder proposition (harder on two counts - harder to win a League C Group and then harder to win a play off path via League C). This may be relevant in the future for N. Ireland and Ireland who both were just relegated to League C. It probably wont matter for the next Nations League (which will be used for the WC qualification, details announced on Sep 26th), where it seems likely only 2 spots for playoffs will be available through the Nations League. That season will perhaps only benefit League A teams. If Ireland or N. Ireland were to find themselves in League D by the time Euro 2024's were in consideration then you would be fairly confident that they could win their Groups and therefore engineer a reasonably easy playoff opportunity into Euro 2024 (assuming the same or similar rules).
An optimal strategy may be to relegate to League D on WC years (when it doesn't matter) and promote back on Euro years (where you will get the benefit of a playoff so long as you win a Group of minnows. For example the task becomes win a group of the likes of Luxembourg, Moldova, San Marino in the Nations League to earn a semi Final play off path versus someone like Kazakhstan and Final versus someone like Georgia or Kosovo. Sounds easier than battling Switzerland and Denmark for top 2.
I don't suggest that teams will purposely aim to lose their matches and be relegated, but it may play into how seriously they take the Nation's League matches.
The four Group Winners (GW) of each of the four Leagues qualify for a play-off. That makes 16 playoff spots, if they qualify directly their place is passed down.
Wikipedia is a good place to start but is in order of current standings, which is unrealistic after so few matches, for example N. Ireland have played 4 matches and won 4 but only home and away against the group minnows. Ireland also are in an artificial position as both Denmark and Switzerland have enough games in hand to catch them. Finally England having only played twice means that their current position is not very informative.
Instead of using "current" position, I will use "likely" position based on Bet365 odds of group qualification (Top 2). In that case, all of League 1 qualify automatically (except probably Iceland) and so all their play-off spots are passed down to the teams next in line. Also most of League B will also qualify. Realistically there will be enough play off spots to pass down to ensure qualification or playoff all the way down to Romania. See below.
Everyone in League C below Romania cannot feature in a play off. There are 12 playoff spots available to League A, B and C and best case 20 automatic qualifiers. That is enough to accommodate either a play-off or auto-qualification for 32 teams, no more. Greece, Albania, Montenegro and Slovenia for example are highly incentivised to qualify directly through the qualification group.
Romania, Hungary, Israel and Bulgaria are dependent on a play-off berth being handed down (if they dont qualify by themselves. And most likely it will be. However if any lower team qualifies automatically (eg Slovenia 5/2, Kosovo 3/1) then there would not be enough spare play-off berths to share down as far as Romania. Hungary, Israel and Bulgaria are also in this boat - but its more unlikely as you move up the League that enough spots will be taken away by the lower teams.
It is unlikely that this fate would befall anyone in League B there would have to be less than 16 automatic qualifiers from the 24 League A and B teams. Currently 18 of these teams are odds on to qualify. N. Ireland will be the first to lose the playoff place (if only 15), then Ireland (if only 14).
In League D Georgia, Macedonia, Kosovo and Belarus have already guaranteed at least a play off. The next four Luxembourg, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will benefit and take their playoff berth if any of those make auto qualifying (eg. Kosovo currently appear to have a decent chance at 3/1). What is great for these League D teams is that they will be in the same play off path together - so one of those League D teams WILL be at the Finals. It is a great opportunity for Georgia for example who are 66/1 to qualify by Top 2, but the playoff gives a 1 in 4 chance (i.e. 3/1) for these teams - I would expect Georgia/Kosovo (the stronger of the four) to be shorter than 3/1. These teams may quickly shift focus onto the play-offs if their qualification groups turns against them. They could well use the remaining games in the qualification to give experience to younger players, or to experiment with formations.
League C is a bit of a Limbo League, stuck in between League B (almost certain everyone will get a play-off chance) and League D (the Group Winners are guaranteed a playoff place). Although the Group Winners in Group C are also guaranteed it is a much harder proposition (harder on two counts - harder to win a League C Group and then harder to win a play off path via League C). This may be relevant in the future for N. Ireland and Ireland who both were just relegated to League C. It probably wont matter for the next Nations League (which will be used for the WC qualification, details announced on Sep 26th), where it seems likely only 2 spots for playoffs will be available through the Nations League. That season will perhaps only benefit League A teams. If Ireland or N. Ireland were to find themselves in League D by the time Euro 2024's were in consideration then you would be fairly confident that they could win their Groups and therefore engineer a reasonably easy playoff opportunity into Euro 2024 (assuming the same or similar rules).
An optimal strategy may be to relegate to League D on WC years (when it doesn't matter) and promote back on Euro years (where you will get the benefit of a playoff so long as you win a Group of minnows. For example the task becomes win a group of the likes of Luxembourg, Moldova, San Marino in the Nations League to earn a semi Final play off path versus someone like Kazakhstan and Final versus someone like Georgia or Kosovo. Sounds easier than battling Switzerland and Denmark for top 2.
I don't suggest that teams will purposely aim to lose their matches and be relegated, but it may play into how seriously they take the Nation's League matches.
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