Lets skip the playoffs please
| Path A |
|---|
| Iceland |
| Path B |
| Bosnia (GW) |
| Slovakia |
| Ireland |
| N. Ireland |
| Path C |
| Scotland (GW) |
| Norway (GW) |
| Serbia (GW) |
| Bulgaria |
| Israel |
| Hungary |
| Romania |
| Path D |
| Georgia |
| Macedonia |
| Kosovo |
| Belarus |
In the base scenario (most likely going by betting markets):
* 50% chance Ireland would be in Iceland's playoff Path.
* 50% chance Ireland would be in Bosnia's playoff Path.
* 40% chance Ireland would have an away semi final vs Slovakia.
* 35% chance Ireland would have a home semi final vs N. Ireland.
* 25% chance Ireland would have a home semi final vs Other.
As all the League A teams will have qualified automatically bar probably Iceland and all but 4 League B teams will probably qualify then the extra spots are replaced with League C teams. Path C would be over filled (there are more than 4 teams). There will be a draw between the teams to pick which will remain in Path C. The Nations League Group Winners cannot be moved, so the draw would only involve BUL, ISR, HUN and ROM. One team will remain in Path C with SCO, NOR, SRB. The other 3 move up. That would leave Path B overfilled so a similar draw would have to be performed.
Each Path is ranked based on Nations League rank (in the order we have listed here). In the semis 1st plays 4th with home advantage, and 2nd plays 3rd with home advantage. The host for the final is determined by a draw.
Looking at Ireland.
Bosnia as a Nations League Group Winner will remain in Path B. Three of BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM would join SVK/IRE/NIR to make 6 teams (its unclear to me at this point whether the over flow teams from League C will go into Path B as Path B is already full, UEFA may decide to shove the League C overflow directly into Path A - I am assuming in this post that they don't do that but first get a chance to be drawn into Path B). Three of these six will be drawn into Path B (with Bosnia) and the other three will move to Path A (with Iceland). That is the easy bit, Ireland would have a 50% chance of joining Bosnia's Path, and a 50% chance of joining Iceland's Path. Ireland won't be the 4th ranked team in either of those Paths so we can say that (if they make their playoff final) Iceland and Bosnia would be Ireland's probable final opponents at a venue to be determined by a draw.
The next thing we want to do is look to see in this scenario the possibility that Ireland could have a Home semi final. The only scenario that Ireland are 3rd ranked team is if Slovakia are in the same Path then it would be ICE/SVK/IRE/XXX or BOS/SVK/IRE/XXX. Either way they would be third ranked team and face Slovakia away in the semi. Anything else and they would be at Home. So what are the chances that we are drawn with Slovakia? There are 6 teams in the draw, to pick 3. This gives 20 combinations of draws for Path B. 4 of 20 combinations have Ireland drawn with Slovakia (ie SVK/IRE/NIR, SVK/IRE/D1, SVK/IRE/D2, SVK/IRE/D3 where D1, D2 & D3 are the 3 teams moved up from Path D). 4 of 20 combinations NEITHER are selected for Path B, so both will go together in Path A (ie NIR/D1/D2, NIR/D1/D3, NIR/D2/D3, D1/D2/D3). In total 8 of 20 possibilities or 40% chance Ireland are 3rd ranked and face Slovakia in the semi in Slovakia.
And given that that is the only scenario in the base scenario where Ireland are away, it leaves a 60% chance Ireland have a home semi final.
It will be the same calculation to show Ireland have a 40% chance of being in the same Path as N. Ireland, but would not necessarily meet in the semi - in the case of BOS/SVK/IRE/NIR the two Ireland's would only meet if they both would win their semi final. That is the only 1 draw of 20 combinations (5% chance) which would have the Ireland's in the same Path and not meeting in a semi. This leaves a 35% chance Ireland would face N. Ireland in the semi in Dublin.
We can apply some more probability theory to compute that there would be a 30% chance Ireland are drawn in a Path with one of the League C teams (Bulgaria, Israel, Hungary or Romania). These would be a good draw in light that Ireland just beat Bulgaria 3-1 in a recent friendly. Again, this doesn't mean we will meet them in the semi, just that they will be the same Path but could be in the other semi final.
What can change? Well almost everything, but in reality there is not that much that will make a material change - so don't discount the analysis as meaningless just yet.
1. Slovakia qualify automatically. Its tight in this group with Wales and Hungary. Slovakia qualifying would just put Wales into the playoffs and the above paragraphs all read the same with Wales replacing Slovakia. Ireland probably wouldn't want that.
2. Hungary qualify automatically. As mentioned this group is close with the three. If its Hungary then its Wales and Slovakia in the playoffs. Both are ranked above Ireland in the Nations League ranking. This would open the possibility of a Path like BOS/WAL/SVK/IRE where Ireland would face the top ranked team in the group in a semi. It would also greatly increase the possibility of an away semi. Ireland definitely wouldn't want that.
3. Israel qualify automatically ahead of Austria. In that case Austria drop into the playoff draws and we are again in the same situation as point 2 directly above. Austria, Wales and Slovakia potentially can all be in the playoffs. The more of those consigned to the playoffs the more likely Ireland are ranked lower in their Path and the more likely that Ireland are away and/or meet the top ranked team. Ireland wouldn't want this.
4. Iceland qualify automatically. This is a tight call too as they are only 3 points behind Turkey. It would leave no teams from League A - so Path A would have to be entirely made up of over flow teams from B and C. In that scenario Ireland could in fact become a top ranked team in Path A which would be good, however Turkey join the draw for Path B which just adds another higher ranking team to the draw and so increases both the chance Ireland play away in their semi and the chances they face Bosnia in the semi rather than the final. I am not sure if Ireland want this.
5. One of the lower ranking teams qualify, for example Kosovo, Slovenia and Armenia all with chances. Slovenia would be a similar situation to point 3 discussion on Israel. Kosovo would drop Romania out of the reckoning and bring Czech Republic into the teams involved in the play-offs - another team higher ranked than Ireland again increasing the chance that Ireland are away in the semi. Armenia would put Finland back into the playoffs at the expense of Romania, it wouldn't affect Ireland too much except that Finland (as a NL GW) would not move up to Path B where Romania would so it takes away one chance that Ireland are drawn against a lower ranked team than them. Ireland don't really want any of this.
6. Bosnia qualify automatically. This would mean Finland into the playoffs and Romania now in on Bosnia's ticket instead of Finland's. But also, this would mean no constraint on the Path B. You would have SVK/IRE/NIR/BUL/ISR/HUN/ROM all in the draw for the Path B playoff. This creates a chance that Ireland could be top ranked team (eg IRE/ISR/HUN/ROM). It also slightly reduces the chance of being moved into Path A to join Iceland's path. Ireland probably would like that.
7. Ireland qualify automatically. This is the ideal scenario of course for Ireland. They can still qualify either as Qualifying Group winners or runners up. All winners and runners up go directly to the Finals. As group winners they would be assigned to Pot 1 or 2 for the seeding (probably Pot 2), as group runners up they would be assigned to Pot 2 or 3 or 4 (probably Pot 3). Ireland really really would like this.
8. Any combination of the above changes to the base scenario is left as an exercise for the reader.
We can now roughly generalise the base scenario to describe the more general scenarios: (see discussion 1-8 above):
* ~50% chance Ireland would be in Iceland's playoff Path or Path A but made entirely of League B/C teams.
* ~50% chance Ireland would be in Bosnia's playoff Path or a Path B with no group winners.
* Greater than 40% chance Ireland would have an away semi final vs Slovakia or Wales or Austria or Czech (or even Iceland or Bosnia).
* Less than 35% chance Ireland would have a home semi final vs N. Ireland.
* Less than 25% chance Ireland would have a home semi final vs Other.
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