FoG

I have been watching the odds trends to try and figure out what actually matters. The media narratives can be strong, they can be convincing, but ultimately they can be wide of the mark. Spain's price only wobbled when it was announced that their manager was sacked, they drifted amid the speculation and media frenzy but they were back to the same price within 24 hours. England made a lot about getting on the "easy" side of the draw, which they achieved. It only moved their price from 9.4 pre match to 9.0 after the match.  Belgium's odds for taking the "hard" way were 8.0 pre match and have settled at 8.2 now - hardly significant. So what did matter?   Can you put in a performance in 3 games so good/bad that the market will re-assess your chances significantly? Is it a matter of getting a good draw and taking advantage of a void left by a team like Germany? Germany getting knocked out mattered a lot. It benefited Brazil, they were slightly drift...

Ronaldo and Romelu Lukaku will go into the last round of group games level on 4 goals each. Lukaku has made it to 4 goals in less playing time.  Ronaldo will have a chance to take a clear lead when Portugal face Iran - Iran held out well against Spain but realistically you would expect Portugal to win, and Portugal have to score, group qualification is not secured yet for the Portugese. Portugal may also be motivated to run up a big goal difference because 1st in the group may give a slightly more favourable route through the Round of 16 and Quarters than 2nd. Belgium's final group match is against England. It could be tight. Or, with both teams already qualified the coach might decide to rest players. Also the winner of the Belgium group will be sent on course to meet either Brazil or Germany in the Quarter Final. It all contributes to the opinion that England versus Belgium might not be the most competitive match. However over 2.5 goals is trading at 2.2 on betfair exchange...

I am comparing prices from a week ago on the exchange with the current prices. I am trying to spot a trend, to see who the momentum is behind.  Country Current Price Price Last week Current implied prob Prob last week Move Brazil 5.2 5.6 19.23% 17.86% 8% Germany 6.0 6.0 16.67% 16.67% 0% Spain 8.2 7.4 12.20% 13.51% -10% France 8.8 7.8 11.36% 12.82% -11% Argentina 11.0 11.0 9.09% 9.09% 0% Belgium 12.0 12.5 8.33% 8.00% 4% England 19.0 19.0 5.26% 5.26% 0% Portugal 26.0 28.0 3.85% 3.57% 8% Uruguay 30.0 34.0 3.33% 2.94% 13% Croatia 38.0 36.0 2.63% 2.78% -5% Colombia 50.0 50.0 2.00% 2.00% 0% Russia 85.0 65.0 1.18% 1.54% -24% Poland 95.0 100.0 1.05% 1.00% 5% Denmark 120.0 130.0 0.83% 0.77% 8% Serbia 170.0 230.0 0.59% 0.43% 35% Switzerland 170.0 170.0 0.59% 0.59% 0% Mexico 190.0 150.0 0.53% 0.67% -21% Peru 230.0 220.0 0.43% 0.45% -4% Senegal 260.0 270.0 0.38% 0.37% 4% Sweden 340.0 260.0 0.29% 0.38% -24% Iceland 400.0 410.0 0.25% 0.24% 3% Egypt 440.0 300.0 0.23% 0....