Three Reasons to beat Germany
Ireland play Germany in the Euro 2016 qualifiers - its now crunch time and a lot can be decided tomorrow depending on the result.
1. Knock the Scotts out
The big prize for a win against the Germans would be that Scotland would be out of contention. Thus guaranteeing at least a play-off place for the Irish. Scotland are currently 4 points behind with a maximum of 6 points available to them in their final two games against Poland and Gibraltar. One more win for Ireland would guarantee that they couldn't be caught by the Scotts.
2. Automatic Qualification
Automatic qualification is available to those teams that finish in 2nd place, or the best 3rd placed team.
This means that automatic qualification is still in Ireland's own hands. A win against Germany would mean that Ireland would be no more than 2 points behind Poland going into their last match against Poland.
Even if Ireland don't end up achieving 2nd place - a win against Germany could help the chances of clinching the one elusive automatic qualifying spot for the best 3rd placed team.
The 3rd placed teams currently stand at the below points (removing the results against the worst team in the group).
So Ukraine hold the most points presently, but a win for Ireland would put them right up in the mix with 12 pts. Ukraine play Macedonia (which wont count as they are the bottom team in Ukraine's group) and Spain. So its quite possible there are no more points there for Ukraine. Croatia have a pending 1 point deduction.
That would mean that the top 3rd placed spot could come down to Ireland and Hungary - and could potentially go to goal difference. Both teams are close.
By the way, a couple of wins for Albania in their last two games would lift them out of 3rd and put Denmark (with 12pts and slim prospects of improving with only one match left away versus Portugal) into 3rd.
Either way, a win against Germany keeps Ireland's chance of automatic qualification alive (either as 2nd place ahead of Poland, or potentially as best 3rd).
3. Seeding for the play-offs
Should Ireland fail to qualify automatically they might be lucky to make the play-offs. Their seeding in the play-offs will determine whether they get for example one of Sweden, Croatia, Hungary or Turkey. Or if seeded then Ireland could face slightly easier prospect of a playoff with Israel, Slovenia, Albania or Turkey.
1. Knock the Scotts out
The big prize for a win against the Germans would be that Scotland would be out of contention. Thus guaranteeing at least a play-off place for the Irish. Scotland are currently 4 points behind with a maximum of 6 points available to them in their final two games against Poland and Gibraltar. One more win for Ireland would guarantee that they couldn't be caught by the Scotts.
2. Automatic Qualification
Automatic qualification is available to those teams that finish in 2nd place, or the best 3rd placed team.
This means that automatic qualification is still in Ireland's own hands. A win against Germany would mean that Ireland would be no more than 2 points behind Poland going into their last match against Poland.
Even if Ireland don't end up achieving 2nd place - a win against Germany could help the chances of clinching the one elusive automatic qualifying spot for the best 3rd placed team.
The 3rd placed teams currently stand at the below points (removing the results against the worst team in the group).
So Ukraine hold the most points presently, but a win for Ireland would put them right up in the mix with 12 pts. Ukraine play Macedonia (which wont count as they are the bottom team in Ukraine's group) and Spain. So its quite possible there are no more points there for Ukraine. Croatia have a pending 1 point deduction.
That would mean that the top 3rd placed spot could come down to Ireland and Hungary - and could potentially go to goal difference. Both teams are close.
By the way, a couple of wins for Albania in their last two games would lift them out of 3rd and put Denmark (with 12pts and slim prospects of improving with only one match left away versus Portugal) into 3rd.
Either way, a win against Germany keeps Ireland's chance of automatic qualification alive (either as 2nd place ahead of Poland, or potentially as best 3rd).
3. Seeding for the play-offs
Should Ireland fail to qualify automatically they might be lucky to make the play-offs. Their seeding in the play-offs will determine whether they get for example one of Sweden, Croatia, Hungary or Turkey. Or if seeded then Ireland could face slightly easier prospect of a playoff with Israel, Slovenia, Albania or Turkey.
As you can see, it is pretty close between Ireland, Turkey, Israel and Slovenia. Turkey, Israel and Slovenia can potentially end up on 27013 points, 26662 points and 26261 points respectively. A defeat to Germany would leave Ireland with a max potential of only 26882. So to be guaranteed seeding above Turkey in particular Ireland would need a result against the Germans.
Norway could also find themselves in the mix if they drop behind Croatia into 3rd. So a win against Germany would help the Irish stay ahead of Norway. Noway would have 26859 points if they beat Malta and draw with Italy (the draw with Italy would open the door for the Croatian to put them into 3rd). But a win for Ireland against Germany could help push Ireland to a max potential of 28142 points.
Even Hungary and Denmark are catchable depending on results. So that if they are in contention for seeding then Ireland could be seeded above them.
It all starts with a home win against the Germans.
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