Ireland's EURO 2016 playoff: The opponents

Ireland will face one of Ukraine, Bosnia, Sweden and Hungary in the play off.

 Here is a quick profile of each team.

 Ireland

 UEFA Rank: 23
FIFA Rank: 54
Finished 3rd behind Germany and Poland.

 How good can we be:
2015-10-08 Republic of Ireland 1-0 Germany (EURO Qualifier)
2014-10-14 Germany 1-1 Republic of Ireland (EURO Qualifier)
2013-05-29 England 1-1 Republic of Ireland (Friendly)
2014-05-31 Italy 0-0 Republic of Ireland (Friendly)
2014-11-18 Republic of Ireland 4-1 United States (Friendly)

 How bad can we be:
2013-09-10 Austria 1-0 Republic of Ireland (WC Qualifier)
2015-10-11 Poland 2-1 Republic of Ireland (EURO Qualifier)
2013-03-26 Republic of Ireland 2-2 Austria (WC Qualifier)
2014-05-25 Republic of Ireland 1-2 Turkey (Friendly)
2014-11-14 Scotland 1-0 Republic of Ireland (EURO Qualifier)


Ukraine

 UEFA Rank: 14
FIFA Rank: 24
Finished 3rd behind Spain and Slovakia.
Prediction: Ireland have 44.53% chance of qualifying if drawn against Ukraine (see Poisson Predictions).

 How good can they be:
2011-11-11 Ukraine 3-3 Germany (Friendly)
2012-09-11 England 1-1 Ukraine (WC Qualifiers)
2014-03-05 Ukraine 2-0 United States (Friendly)
2012-06-11 Ukraine 2-1 Sweden (EURO 2012)
2013-11-15 Ukraine 2-0 France (WC Qualifiers)

 How bad can they be:
2012-06-01 Austria 3-2 Ukraine (Friendly)
2012-10-12 Moldova 0-0 Ukraine (WC Qualifiers)
2015-03-31 Ukraine 1-1 Latvia (Friendly)
2014-11-18 Ukraine 0-0 Lithuania (Friendly)
2014-09-08 Ukraine 0-1 Slovakia (EURO Qualifiers)

 Ireland have never met Ukraine before.

Bosnia

 UEFA Rank: 13
FIFA Rank: 30
Finished 3rd behind Wales and Belgium.
Prediction: Ireland have 47.435% chance of qualifying if drawn against Bosnia (see Poisson Predictions).

 How good can they be:
2015-10-10 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 Wales (EURO Qualifier)
2014-10-13 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 Belgium (EURO Qualifier)
2013-03-22 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1 Greece (WC Qualifier)
2011-11-11 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0-0 Portugal (EURO playoff)
2012-11-14 Algeria 0-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina (Friendly)

 How bad can they be:
2014-09-09 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-2 Cyprus (EURO Qualifier)
2011-12-16 Poland 1-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina (Friendly)
2013-09-06 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0-1 Slovakia (WC Qualifier)
2014-11-16 Israel 3-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina (EURO Qualifier)
2014-06-21 Nigeria 1-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina (WC 2014)
Ireland have met Bosnia once before and beat them on 2012-05-26. The score was Ireland 1 - 0 Bosnia (Friendly).

Sweden

 UEFA Rank: 16
FIFA Rank: 45
Finished 3rd behind Austria and Russia.
Prediction: Ireland have 50.756% chance of qualifying if drawn against Sweden (see Poisson Predictions).

 How good can they be:
2012-10-16 Germany 4-4 Sweden (WC Qualifiers)
2012-11-14 Sweden 4-2 England (Friendly)
2012-02-29 Croatia 1-3 Sweden (Friendly)
2012-06-19 Sweden 2-0 France (EURO 2012)
2013-08-14 Sweden 4-2 Norway (Friendly)

 How bad can they be:
2013-06-07 Austria 2-1 Sweden (WC Qualifier)
2012-06-11 Ukraine 2-1 Sweden (EURO 2012)
2014-03-05 Turkey 2-1 Sweden (Friendly)
2014-11-15 Montenegro 1-1 Sweden (EURO Qualifier)
2015-06-08 Norway 0-0 Sweden (Friendly)
Ireland have played Sweden 10 times before - winning 3, losing 5 and drawing 2. The last meeting was on 2013-09-06 and the result was Ireland 1 - 2 Sweden in a World Cup Qualifier.
Hungary

 UEFA Rank: 20
FIFA Rank: 33
Finished 3rd behind N. Ireland and Romania.
Prediction: Ireland have 58.64% chance of qualifying if drawn against Hungary(see Poisson Predictions).

 How good can they be:
2015-09-04 Hungary 0-0 Romania (EURO Qualifiers)
2012-06-01 Czech Republic 1-2 Hungary (Friendly)
2012-10-16 Hungary 3-1 Turkey (WC Qualifiers)
2014-05-22 Hungary 2-2 Denmark (Friendly)
2013-08-14 Hungary 1-1 Czech Republic (Friendly)

 How bad can they be:
2014-09-07 Hungary 1-2 Northern Ireland (EURO Qualifier)
2014-03-05 Hungary 1-2 Finland (Friendly)
2011-11-15 Poland 2-1 Hungary (Friendly)
2012-02-29 Hungary 1-1 Bulgaria (Friendly)
2015-10-11 Greece 4-3 Hungary (EURO Qualifier)
Ireland have played Hungary 11 times - winning 2, losing 4 and drawing 5. The last meeting was on 2012-06-04 and the result was Hungary 0 - 0 Ireland in a Friendly.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Deconstructing WDL and O/U 2.5 goals odds.

Input odds below (in decimal): Home Odds: Draw Odds: Away odds: Over 2.5 Odds: Calculate Params See also Elo Reverse Calculator . Dixon Coles Dixon Coles is a method of generating probabilities on football matches.  It is related to Poisson but adds a correlation for low scores.  It seems to be one of the most accurate public methods.  It requires three parameters lambda, mu and rho.  rho describes how related low scores are.  lambda and mu represent the average goals the home and away team are expected to score. In this calculator I have fixed rho = -0.13 (more info here  and here ) and I simply do a brute force search varying lambda and mu to find the values that has the lowest error from the Win Draw Lose and Over 2.5 odds entered.  I use the WDL odds and Over/Under odds as they are the most liquid betting markets and you can usually read a very accurate estimate for these off oddschecker or the exchange.   The soluti...
Read more

Chrome Extension 1000

Image
Donations now accepted If you have enjoyed using this extension and want to show your appreciation then click "Buy me a coffee" below, otherwise continue further down to read about our features! This started off as just a personal project.  I got full value from the effort that I put in already.   The effort included a few days coding initially and a day or two here or there to fix and add features, perhaps a full working week but fragmented all over the place.  In total it is now about 150 lines of code.   The reward was learning some javascript, learning about chrome extensions, earning some cred on twitter, and getting to connect with different people.  And of course I am actively using it and can identify potential betting opportunities myself. However surprisingly many have found it useful and some have asked for a way to say thanks.  So here it is. Feature Request (01 February 2024) - only available to manually install due to gambling exetn...
Read more

Elo Reverse Calculator

Image
Input odds below (in decimal): Home Odds: Draw Odds: Away odds: Calculate Params Elo Elo is simply a way of rating teams.  The ratings can be used to compare teams and generate probabilities for head to heads.  The probability one team will beat another is just a function of the difference in their rating. p = 1/(1+10^(-diff/400))  The tweet further below from ClubElo introduces another parameter r to take account of draws. Elo: The Hard Way The process is better described on eloratings.net  and clubelo.com .  If you visit these sites you can see it is quite complex.  Basically you initialise all teams to 1000 points for example.  Then you need a history of results and update each teams ratings depending if they win, lose or draw.  There are nuances to worry about, home field advantage, big wins, inter-league adjustments, k-factor weightings, etc. Elo: The Easy Way Say someone has already rated the teams, and also they have tak...
Read more