It's Bosnia!


Bosnia are beatable. Just ask Cyprus and Israel. They also have a poor record in play-offs having being sunk 6-2 by Portugal the last time. 

All that said, it will be a tough tie and Bosnia probably hold a slight advantage - but lets stay optimistic! 

If we do qualify then we don't want to make up the numbers and live through a repeat of the EURO 2012 disaster in Poland/Ukraine. 

We know that the composition of the Pots will depend on the current UEFA co-efficient rankings and some positions are already decided. See here. The last final Pots will depend on the qualifiers from the playoffs.


The chart top right shows the probable outlooks for next summer for Ireland based on bookie's odds.
Pot 1
France (Hosts)
Germany
Spain
England
Portugal
Belgium
Italy

Pot 2
Italy
Russia
Switzerland
Austria
Croatia
Czech or Bosnia or Ukraine		Pot 3
Maybe Ukraine or Czech
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
2 or 3 of Sweden, Denmark, Turkey, Ireland

Pot 4
Iceland
Wales
Albania
N. Ireland
2 of Turkey, Ireland, Slovenia or Norway

Ireland would be in trouble in Pot 4 (as in 2012) and would be pitched into a group with all other 3 teams theoretically better than us. For example England, Italy, Poland, Ireland. Scrape into Pot 3 and we can have a team like Albania or Slovenia there instead of a Poland.

The full current coefficient scores are here (and table copied below).

The coefficients right now at the end of the group qualification phase are what will decide our final Pot. These won't change but what can change is who goes through in the play-offs. For Ireland to be in Pot 3 we need Slovenia and Norway there. Norway have every chance against Hungary, but I'm less optimistic for Slovenia playing Ukraine.

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