World Dominanation: Step 1

Ireland have a crucial Euro Qualifier against Poland tomorrow. Poland look like the main rivals for 2nd spot and we are already 3 points behind them. If we fail to make second then we will have to scrap out 3rd spot with Scotland and then navigate a play-off. It cannot be overstated how important a home win tomorrow night is.

But its not only Euro Qualification that is on the line here. World Cup 2018 is on the horizon and Ireland have the possibility of soaring in the rankings before July. July is when the draw for the World Cup Qualification will be made and our FIFA ranking then will decide what pot we will be in.  

World Dominanation Step 1: Make it into Pot 2 for the World Cup Draw.

There will be 9 groups in the WC2018 Qualification.  Top 9 countries based on FIFA Ranking in July will be put in Pot 1 for the draw and next 9 countries will be in Pot 2. If Ireland were in Pot 2 then apart from a top seed, the next best team in the group would probably be someone like Ukraine, Poland, Iceland, Wales, Scotland, Serbia, Northern Ireland, Sweden or Hungary (based on current ranking). Fail to make Pot 2 and then it is possible that as well as a top seed, we could face teams like England, France, Spain.

It is possible.

The Ranking on 9th July 2015 will be determined by the four years previous with a weighting of 100% for current year and then 50%, 30% and 20% as you go back. Obviously all the results are already in for the years to Jul 2012, to Jul 2013 and to July 2014 and Ireland have played 5 of their 8 matches that will make up the period to Jul 2015.

Ranking points already earned for year to Jul 2015 and potential points are given in the table below.

Date	Opponent	Rank	M	I	T	C	M*I*T*C=P
2014-09-03	Oman	67	3	1	133	0.92	367.08
2014-09-07	Georgia	95	3	2.5	105	0.99	779.63
2014-10-14	Germany	1	1	2.5	200	0.99	495.00
2014-11-14	Scotland	37	0	2.5	163	0.99	0.00
2014-11-18	USA	23	3	1	177	0.92	488.52
Matches still to play to contribute to July 2015 total. Best case scenarios.
2015-03-29	Poland	40	3	2.5	160	0.99	1188.00
2015-06-07	England	15	3	1	185	0.99	549.45
2015-06-17	Scotland	38	3	2.5	162	0.99	1202.85
						Total	5070.53
						Average	633.82

By combining the Average above with the weighted averages already determined for the other three years we get.

Period	Average Pts
To July 2012	78.98
To July 2013	76.97
To July 2014	58.20
To July 2015	633.82
Total	847.96

This total is likely to be enough to make Pot 2. By the current ranking Bosnia are 18th placed UEFA team with 831.96 points. Since the latest version of the FIFA Rankings brought in after World Cup 2006 the lowest total for 18th was 682, the highest was 909 and the average is 790.45.

Russia currently 20th ranked UEFA nation will take an automatic place in the WC2018 finals as host, so if they were to make 18th then 19th ranked UEFA team would make Pot 2.

All three remaining matches for FIFA WC2018 Qualification seeding are at home - which gives us a chance. What would give us a better chance is if we cancelled the England friendly or made it an unofficial friendly by allowing more than 6 subs. The max ranking points that we can get out of that game is about 550, which even by winning is bringing down our average.