The Winter World Cup

So with the recent news which announced that Qatar 2022 will be the first Winter World Cup it has gotten some of us wondering how that could work to the advantage of some Nations.  Players' fitness can vary throughout the season starting from unfit, progressing to match fit, on to peak fitness and by the end of the season tired.  Different leagues have different season - in December in England, the premier league will be in full swing in December, but in United States the MLS will be on their off season.

There is very little data for most teams, for example the last time that Ireland played an International match in December was back in 1948 which was a Friendly in Dublin that they lost to Switzerland.  This is hardly an indication though that Ireland will do poorly in a December World Cup in 2022.

So to make the analysis relevant the below table only includes recent internationals (since 2000).  The table includes Nov and Jan as well as Dec because of the shortage of Dec Internationals.  The table shows that England seem quite poor in Winter, Ireland about even and Wales do quite well in Winter.  This is true,  even though the pool of International players for all three team generally is the English Premier League, where by Nov you would hope they would be at peak fitness.

The result are disappointingly inconclusive.  Even by including Nov and Jan, I still don't think there are enough data points for this simple analysis.

But for the record - Netherlands and Spain have a poor win percentage in Winter compared to the rest of the year so would appear to be handicapped most by this decision.  Chile and Ivory Coast are Nations that going by these figures might be able to excel in a Winter World Cup.

If there is a single trend in these numbers it may relate to the African nations - most of which seem to post higher win percentages in Winter. 

Team	per cent wins in winter	per cent wins outside winter	total played in winter	total played outside winter	per cent difference
Albania	14%	51%	14	45	-37%
Netherlands	27%	55%	15	66	-28%
Gabon	13%	39%	24	44	-26%
Croatia	25%	50%	8	62	-25%
Uruguay	33%	56%	9	62	-23%
Sierra Leone	0%	22%	7	9	-22%
Lithuania	13%	33%	8	60	-21%
Spain	53%	74%	15	68	-20%
Slovenia	14%	34%	7	50	-20%
Germany	35%	55%	17	82	-20%
Latvia	8%	27%	13	63	-19%
Northern Ireland	0%	18%	5	45	-18%
England	38%	55%	16	62	-17%
Switzerland	27%	44%	11	64	-16%
Cape Verde Islands	25%	41%	8	22	-16%
Angola	16%	31%	25	67	-15%
Venezuela	25%	40%	12	88	-15%
Algeria	29%	44%	17	41	-14%
Antigua and Barbuda	29%	43%	7	28	-14%
Costa Rica	16%	30%	19	70	-14%
Libya	27%	41%	22	46	-14%
Sweden	30%	42%	33	71	-12%
Iceland	25%	37%	16	49	-12%
Mozambique	25%	37%	12	60	-12%
Greece	29%	41%	17	56	-12%
Uzbekistan	25%	36%	12	56	-11%
Turkey	33%	43%	9	68	-9%
Oman	40%	48%	83	85	-8%
Mali	41%	49%	32	39	-8%
Guatemala	23%	31%	22	65	-8%
Austria	18%	25%	11	60	-7%
China PR	34%	41%	32	102	-7%
Czech Republic	38%	44%	8	61	-7%
South Korea	40%	47%	40	103	-7%
United States	43%	49%	30	89	-6%
Finland	35%	40%	23	70	-5%
Congo DR	27%	32%	22	41	-4%
Nigeria	42%	45%	24	55	-4%
Bulgaria	43%	46%	14	52	-3%
Belarus	42%	45%	12	58	-3%
Italy	37%	40%	19	60	-3%
Zambia	35%	38%	52	77	-3%
France	56%	58%	16	81	-2%
Haiti	22%	24%	9	59	-2%
Ukraine	43%	44%	7	70	-1%
Mexico	47%	49%	19	109	-1%
Morocco	50%	51%	32	49	-1%
Congo	30%	31%	10	26	-1%
Panama	36%	37%	22	71	0%
Honduras	33%	33%	21	81	0%
El Salvador	20%	19%	15	67	1%
Egypt	57%	56%	53	61	1%
Japan	50%	49%	18	121	1%
Jordan	32%	30%	41	109	1%
South Africa	46%	44%	37	97	2%
Iran	54%	52%	26	90	2%
Benin	18%	16%	17	25	2%
Scotland	33%	31%	12	45	2%
Armenia	33%	31%	3	45	2%
Republic of Ireland	50%	46%	10	65	4%
Qatar	40%	36%	75	87	4%
Argentina	67%	62%	15	71	5%
Malawi	35%	30%	20	76	5%
Colombia	55%	49%	11	67	5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	36%	31%	11	49	6%
Ecuador	41%	35%	17	82	6%
Russia	43%	37%	7	49	6%
Peru	43%	36%	7	61	7%
Cameroon	29%	23%	17	40	7%
United Arab Emirates	39%	31%	72	70	7%
Hungary	44%	36%	16	64	8%
Denmark	52%	44%	25	59	8%
Trinidad and Tobago	47%	39%	17	87	8%
Cyprus	43%	34%	7	47	9%
Australia	50%	41%	14	68	9%
Norway	48%	38%	27	65	10%
Bolivia	33%	23%	6	44	11%
Burkina Faso	32%	21%	28	43	11%
Belgium	50%	38%	10	52	12%
Tunisia	48%	37%	29	52	12%
Brazil	81%	69%	16	91	12%
Portugal	64%	52%	11	66	12%
Chile	60%	48%	20	80	13%
Togo	38%	25%	21	24	13%
Estonia	39%	26%	31	82	13%
Jamaica	47%	33%	15	93	13%
Romania	63%	49%	16	59	13%
Rwanda	44%	31%	63	29	13%
Guinea	43%	29%	14	34	13%
Israel	50%	36%	6	47	14%
Paraguay	46%	32%	13	81	14%
Serbia	55%	36%	11	33	18%
Ivory Coast	58%	39%	24	38	19%
Poland	61%	42%	31	88	19%
Ghana	46%	25%	26	57	22%
Wales	67%	37%	6	46	30%
Senegal	68%	38%	19	50	30%
Uganda	60%	26%	89	53	33%
Slovakia	60%	24%	15	66	36%
Montenegro	100%	41%	4	22	59%