SSE Airtricity League of Ireland 2015 preview
The League of Ireland kicks off again on Friday.
I have recorded the Outright odds for the entire off season to see how events (like signings) affect the bookies odds. With the exception of the date when Danny North signed for Rovers the major transfer moves did not affect the bookie's odds at all. Even when one of the leagues most high profile players Keith Fahey moved from one contender across the city to another contender - it didn't shift the bookie's opinion.
It didn't budge either when the fixture list was announced.
The bookie's odds did change during the off season though. What dark forces could be behind this?
St Pats moved the most from 2/1 to 5/2.
This feels like it is punters voting with their cash and shifting the odds. But could punters be biased towards the popular well supported clubs? Or is the collective intelligence of thousands of punters simply correcting the original odds set by the limited intelligence of the bookmaker.
My opinion is that the punters are biased and the bookie doesn't want to be overexposed on a popular result like Shamrock Rovers - so can attract money to Pats by offering artificially inflated odds. In which case their originally generated odds are probably fair - which would make the 5/2 on Pats right now quite generous.
I would bet my money on the bookie's original opinion and original odds being accurate. I see more rich bookies than rich punters. However, the bookie can also be very stubborn with their odds, almost to the point where it seems that they are almost totally ignoring the punter's collective intelligence - read here.
I have recorded the Outright odds for the entire off season to see how events (like signings) affect the bookies odds. With the exception of the date when Danny North signed for Rovers the major transfer moves did not affect the bookie's odds at all. Even when one of the leagues most high profile players Keith Fahey moved from one contender across the city to another contender - it didn't shift the bookie's opinion.
It didn't budge either when the fixture list was announced.
The bookie's odds did change during the off season though. What dark forces could be behind this?
 |
| LoI odds fluctuations during the off season |
St Pats moved the most from 2/1 to 5/2.
This feels like it is punters voting with their cash and shifting the odds. But could punters be biased towards the popular well supported clubs? Or is the collective intelligence of thousands of punters simply correcting the original odds set by the limited intelligence of the bookmaker.
My opinion is that the punters are biased and the bookie doesn't want to be overexposed on a popular result like Shamrock Rovers - so can attract money to Pats by offering artificially inflated odds. In which case their originally generated odds are probably fair - which would make the 5/2 on Pats right now quite generous.
I would bet my money on the bookie's original opinion and original odds being accurate. I see more rich bookies than rich punters. However, the bookie can also be very stubborn with their odds, almost to the point where it seems that they are almost totally ignoring the punter's collective intelligence - read here.
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| Betting on the Top Scorer |
So you can make up your mind yourself what you believe the actual chance of each team winning, but lets for fun imagine that our assumption here is correct.
If you convert Pats' original odds (assumed to be the real chance of them winning) of 2/1 to a probability you get a 33% chance that Pats will win (the reality is that the bookie will have built in an edge so the real probability will be a little less than 33%). So on their current odds (5/2) with €100 you have a 33% chance of getting a €350 payout and a 66% chance of losing it all. This would represent a positive expectation (0.33 * €350 + 0.66 * 0 = €117 which is more money than if you just kept the €100 in your pocket).
But remember
1) you are probably going to lose (rough estimate based on odds say a 66% chance Pats won't win)
2) 33% chance is most likely inflated to give the bookie an edge the real figure could be closer to 27.5% which would actually wipe out the small profit that you would have expected based on above.
3) you wont see your money again for close to a year and there are savings plans out there that can probably net you a higher expectation.
4) you will probably get even better odds on Pats after the 3rd series of games as they face Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers away in the first three matches and may have a little stumble. See fixture chart here.
All odds here based off www.paddypower.ie.
Follow me on twitter @FoG_BLoG, or on facebook /fog2014.
If you convert Pats' original odds (assumed to be the real chance of them winning) of 2/1 to a probability you get a 33% chance that Pats will win (the reality is that the bookie will have built in an edge so the real probability will be a little less than 33%). So on their current odds (5/2) with €100 you have a 33% chance of getting a €350 payout and a 66% chance of losing it all. This would represent a positive expectation (0.33 * €350 + 0.66 * 0 = €117 which is more money than if you just kept the €100 in your pocket).
But remember
1) you are probably going to lose (rough estimate based on odds say a 66% chance Pats won't win)
2) 33% chance is most likely inflated to give the bookie an edge the real figure could be closer to 27.5% which would actually wipe out the small profit that you would have expected based on above.
3) you wont see your money again for close to a year and there are savings plans out there that can probably net you a higher expectation.
4) you will probably get even better odds on Pats after the 3rd series of games as they face Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers away in the first three matches and may have a little stumble. See fixture chart here.
All odds here based off www.paddypower.ie.
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