The Story of Paolo Paroli
Meet Paolo Paroli. Signor Paroli is an easy going type of guy. He works as a waiter in a small pizza place in Milan. He enjoys his job but at the end of the week there is not much left out of his pay cheque.
Paroli is soccer mad like most italians. He likes to have a regular punt on the weekend matches. He doesn't mind small losses every now and again and chases the adrenaline rush of a big win. He can only make small bets, its all he can afford, but he has created his own system.
He saves just €10 from his tips per week to play his system. If the bet wins he adds it to his stake for the next week. This way he can push his winnings and eventually win big. When his winnings exceed €1000 he pockets the total and starts again from €10. To even further limit the risk Paroli decides to bet on the strongest favourites each week.
Paroli began his system in 2002. His first season was not the most successful. His weekly spend is limitted, so he cannot lose more than €10 per week. But this is exactly what he did, he lost €10 on average weekly. Poor Paroli. See the first season below.
The 2004/05 season was a washout for Paroli. See below. His streaks inevitably came to an end before he reached his target of €1000.
The only silver lining is that he ended the season on a winning streak and was heading into the next season after building up a significant stake from his tenners.
He had no more big wins in 2005/06 but that didn't matter, wasn't a brand new X-Box with money to spare not enough!
Paroli has continued to wager his expendable income on Serie A matches. He still wins from time to time, but truth be told, there can be years between those big payouts. For example as of Aug 2014, he has only had one big win since his record payout of March 2008. This was in Oct 2013 and for Paroli it happily coincided with the release of the Sony Playstation 4 and the X-Box One. Paroli bought both and had change left over!
Paroli is soccer mad like most italians. He likes to have a regular punt on the weekend matches. He doesn't mind small losses every now and again and chases the adrenaline rush of a big win. He can only make small bets, its all he can afford, but he has created his own system.
He saves just €10 from his tips per week to play his system. If the bet wins he adds it to his stake for the next week. This way he can push his winnings and eventually win big. When his winnings exceed €1000 he pockets the total and starts again from €10. To even further limit the risk Paroli decides to bet on the strongest favourites each week.
Paroli began his system in 2002. His first season was not the most successful. His weekly spend is limitted, so he cannot lose more than €10 per week. But this is exactly what he did, he lost €10 on average weekly. Poor Paroli. See the first season below.
| Week | Match | Selection | Bet | Payout | Week Profit | Balance | ||||
| 2002-09-14 | Inter | 1 | 0 | Torino | Inter | 1/3 | 10.00 | 13.33 | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| 2002-09-21 | Roma | 1 | 2 | Modena | Roma | 2/9 | 23.33 | 0.00 | -23.33 | -20.00 |
| 2002-09-28 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | Parma | Juventus | 2/5 | 10.00 | 0.00 | -10.00 | -30.00 |
| 2002-10-05 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | Como | Juventus | 1/6 | 10.00 | 0.00 | -10.00 | -40.00 |
| 2002-10-19 | Lazio | 3 | 0 | Perugia | Lazio | 4/9 | 10.00 | 14.44 | 4.44 | -35.56 |
| 2002-10-26 | Juventus | 1 | 0 | Udinese | Juventus | 3/10 | 24.44 | 31.78 | 7.33 | -28.22 |
| 2002-11-02 | Milan | 2 | 0 | Reggina | Milan | 1/4 | 41.78 | 52.22 | 10.44 | -17.78 |
| 2002-11-09 | Inter | 1 | 2 | Udinese | Inter | 1/4 | 62.22 | 0.00 | -62.22 | -80.00 |
| 2002-11-16 | Milan | 2 | 1 | Parma | Milan | 8/15 | 10.00 | 15.33 | 5.33 | -74.67 |
| 2002-11-23 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | Bologna | Juventus | 4/9 | 25.33 | 0.00 | -25.33 | -100.00 |
| 2002-11-30 | Inter | 4 | 0 | Brescia | Inter | 2/7 | 10.00 | 12.86 | 2.86 | -97.14 |
| 2002-12-07 | Parma | 2 | 0 | Reggina | Parma | 4/9 | 22.86 | 33.01 | 10.16 | -86.99 |
| 2002-12-14 | Inter | 1 | 0 | Atalanta | Inter | 1/4 | 43.01 | 53.77 | 10.75 | -76.23 |
| 2002-12-21 | Milan | 0 | 0 | Brescia | Milan | 1/4 | 63.77 | 0.00 | -63.77 | -140.00 |
| 2003-01-04 | Torino | 1 | 1 | Atalanta | Torino | 11/10 | 10.00 | 0.00 | -10.00 | -150.00 |
| 2003-01-11 | Inter | 2 | 0 | Modena | Inter | 2/9 | 10.00 | 12.22 | 2.22 | -147.78 |
| 2003-01-18 | Milan | 2 | 1 | Piacenza | Milan | 1/5 | 22.22 | 26.67 | 4.44 | -143.33 |
| 2003-01-25 | Juventus | 2 | 0 | Piacenza | Juventus | 1/5 | 36.67 | 44.00 | 7.33 | -136.00 |
| 2003-02-01 | Milan | 2 | 1 | Modena | Milan | 1/5 | 54.00 | 64.80 | 10.80 | -125.20 |
| 2003-02-08 | Juventus | 1 | 0 | Empoli | Juventus | 1/4 | 74.80 | 93.50 | 18.70 | -106.50 |
| 2003-02-15 | Roma | 0 | 0 | Brescia | Roma | 2/3 | 103.50 | 0.00 | -103.50 | -210.00 |
| 2003-02-22 | Inter | 3 | 1 | Piacenza | Inter | 1/4 | 10.00 | 12.50 | 2.50 | -207.50 |
| 2003-03-01 | Milan | 3 | 3 | Atalanta | Milan | 3/10 | 22.50 | 0.00 | -22.50 | -230.00 |
| 2003-03-08 | Milan | 0 | 0 | Chievo | Milan | 8/15 | 10.00 | 0.00 | -10.00 | -240.00 |
| 2003-03-15 | Juventus | 3 | 0 | Modena | Juventus | 2/9 | 10.00 | 12.22 | 2.22 | -237.78 |
| 2003-03-22 | Roma | 3 | 0 | Piacenza | Roma | 2/5 | 22.22 | 31.11 | 8.89 | -228.89 |
| 2003-04-05 | Juventus | 2 | 0 | Torino | Juventus | 3/10 | 41.11 | 53.44 | 12.33 | -216.56 |
| 2003-04-12 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | Reggina | Atalanta | 5/6 | 63.44 | 0.00 | -63.44 | -280.00 |
| 2003-04-19 | Parma | 1 | 0 | Torino | Parma | 2/9 | 10.00 | 12.22 | 2.22 | -277.78 |
| 2003-04-26 | Juventus | 2 | 1 | Brescia | Juventus | 2/9 | 22.22 | 27.16 | 4.94 | -272.84 |
| 2003-05-03 | Milan | 2 | 0 | Como | Milan | 1/5 | 37.16 | 44.59 | 7.43 | -265.41 |
| 2003-05-10 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | Perugia | Juventus | 1/5 | 54.59 | 0.00 | -54.59 | -320.00 |
| 2003-05-17 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | Como | Atalanta | 1/6 | 10.00 | 11.67 | 1.67 | -318.33 |
| 2003-05-24 | Inter | 2 | 2 | Perugia | Inter | 1/3 | 21.67 | 0.00 | -21.67 | -340.00 |
His biggest payout was €93.50 which wasn't too bad but he let it all ride and lost it all the next week when Roma failed to beat Brescia.
The next season 2003/04 started promisingly - with the exception of one game Inter vs Sampdoria he was on a roll. And before Christmas he had built his €10's up to €405. Paroli thought about cashing out, after all it was Christmas and it would have been just enough for the PlayStation 2 that he wanted. But AC Milan are his team and they were odds on against Udinese. So he let the winnings ride. Alas Udinese pulled off the upset and Paroli had no PlayStation that Christmas.
| Week | Match | Selection | Bet | Payout | Profit | Balance | ||||
| 2003-08-30 | Juventus | 5 | 1 | Empoli | Juventus | 2/9 | 10.00 | 12.22 | 2.22 | -337.78 |
| 2003-09-13 | Milan | 2 | 1 | Bologna | Milan | 1/3 | 22.22 | 29.63 | 7.41 | -330.37 |
| 2003-09-20 | Inter | 0 | 0 | Sampdoria | Inter | 2/5 | 39.63 | 0.00 | -39.63 | -370.00 |
| 2003-09-27 | Roma | 3 | 0 | Ancona | Roma | 1/6 | 10.00 | 11.67 | 1.67 | -368.33 |
| 2003-10-04 | Juventus | 2 | 1 | Bologna | Juventus | 3/10 | 21.67 | 28.17 | 6.50 | -361.83 |
| 2003-10-18 | Ancona | 2 | 3 | Juventus | Juventus | 4/9 | 38.17 | 55.13 | 16.96 | -344.87 |
| 2003-10-25 | Juventus | 2 | 0 | Brescia | Juventus | 2/7 | 65.13 | 83.74 | 18.61 | -326.26 |
| 2003-11-01 | Roma | 2 | 0 | Reggina | Roma | 1/5 | 93.74 | 112.48 | 18.75 | -307.52 |
| 2003-11-08 | Inter | 3 | 0 | Ancona | Inter | 1/7 | 122.48 | 139.99 | 17.50 | -290.01 |
| 2003-11-22 | Inter | 6 | 0 | Reggina | Inter | 1/3 | 149.99 | 199.98 | 49.99 | -240.02 |
| 2003-11-29 | Roma | 3 | 1 | Lecce | Roma | 1/6 | 209.98 | 244.98 | 35.00 | -205.02 |
| 2003-12-06 | Inter | 2 | 1 | Perugia | Inter | 2/7 | 254.98 | 327.83 | 72.85 | -132.17 |
| 2003-12-13 | Roma | 1 | 0 | Modena | Roma | 1/5 | 337.83 | 405.39 | 67.57 | -64.61 |
| 2003-12-20 | Milan | 1 | 2 | Udinese | Milan | 4/11 | 415.39 | 0.00 | -415.39 | -480.00 |
Unfazed Paroli jumped right back on the horse. Paroli didn't have to wait long for his next streak (see table below). And this time he was successful. It began at the start of January. Paroli was still hurting from his Chirstmas loss but then his beloved Milan demolished Ancona 5-0. It wasn't a big payout but as his streak continued his winnings accumalated and by April he picked up a €849 payout - and let it ride on city rivals Inter Milan! Paroli never cheered Inter before but he cheered that day when they beat Bologna 4-2 at home and Paroli as per his system pocketed the winnings this time, a cool €1200. Just in time for summer too. He immediately booked flights and a hotel in London. This was the first time that Paroli cashed in his winnings since he started his system almost 2 years ago.
| Week | Match | Selection | Bet | Payout | Profit | Balance | ||||
| 2004-01-24 | Milan | 5 | 0 | Ancona | Milan | 1/10 | 10.00 | 11.00 | 1.00 | -509.00 |
| 2004-01-31 | Juventus | 1 | 0 | Chievo | Juventus | 2/7 | 21.00 | 27.00 | 6.00 | -503.00 |
| 2004-02-07 | Milan | 2 | 1 | Perugia | Milan | 1/7 | 37.00 | 42.29 | 5.29 | -497.71 |
| 2004-02-14 | Juventus | 1 | 0 | Reggina | Juventus | 1/4 | 52.29 | 65.36 | 13.07 | -484.64 |
| 2004-02-21 | Roma | 6 | 0 | Siena | Roma | 2/9 | 75.36 | 92.10 | 16.74 | -467.90 |
| 2004-02-28 | Juventus | 3 | 0 | Ancona | Juventus | 1/10 | 102.10 | 112.31 | 10.21 | -457.69 |
| 2004-03-06 | Milan | 3 | 1 | Sampdoria | Milan | 2/5 | 122.31 | 171.24 | 48.93 | -408.76 |
| 2004-03-13 | Siena | 3 | 2 | Ancona | Siena | 4/9 | 181.24 | 261.78 | 80.54 | -328.22 |
| 2004-03-20 | Milan | 3 | 1 | Parma | Milan | 2/5 | 271.78 | 380.49 | 108.71 | -219.51 |
| 2004-03-27 | Juventus | 3 | 1 | Modena | Juventus | 2/7 | 390.49 | 502.06 | 111.56 | -107.94 |
| 2004-04-03 | Lazio | 5 | 2 | Siena | Lazio | 4/11 | 512.06 | 698.24 | 186.18 | 78.24 |
| 2004-04-10 | Milan | 1 | 0 | Empoli | Milan | 1/5 | 708.24 | 849.89 | 141.65 | 219.89 |
| 2004-04-17 | Inter | 4 | 2 | Bologna | Inter | 4/9 | 859.89 | 1,242.03 | 382.14 | 602.03 |
The 2004/05 season was a washout for Paroli. See below. His streaks inevitably came to an end before he reached his target of €1000.
| Week | Match | Selection | Bet | Payout | Profit | Balance | ||||
| 2004-09-11 | Milan | 2 | 2 | Livorno | Milan | 1/6 | 10.00 | 0.00 | -10.00 | 592.03 |
| 2004-09-18 | Juventus | 2 | 0 | Atalanta | Juventus | 1/5 | 10.00 | 12.00 | 2.00 | 594.03 |
| 2004-09-25 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | Palermo | Juventus | 3/10 | 22.00 | 0.00 | -22.00 | 572.03 |
| 2004-10-02 | Milan | 3 | 1 | Reggina | Milan | 1/5 | 10.00 | 12.00 | 2.00 | 574.03 |
| 2004-10-16 | Juventus | 2 | 1 | Messina | Juventus | 2/5 | 22.00 | 30.80 | 8.80 | 582.83 |
| 2004-10-23 | Milan | 3 | 0 | Atalanta | Milan | 1/4 | 40.80 | 51.00 | 10.20 | 593.03 |
| 2004-10-30 | Juventus | 3 | 0 | Chievo | Juventus | 4/11 | 61.00 | 83.18 | 22.18 | 615.21 |
| 2004-11-06 | Inter | 2 | 2 | Bologna | Inter | 2/5 | 93.18 | 0.00 | -93.18 | 522.03 |
| 2004-11-13 | Milan | 2 | 1 | Siena | Milan | 1/4 | 10.00 | 12.50 | 2.50 | 524.53 |
| 2004-11-27 | Chievo | 0 | 1 | Milan | Milan | 5/7 | 22.50 | 38.57 | 16.07 | 540.60 |
| 2004-12-04 | Inter | 5 | 0 | Messina | Inter | 4/11 | 48.57 | 66.23 | 17.66 | 558.26 |
| 2004-12-11 | Milan | 6 | 0 | Fiorentina | Milan | 4/9 | 76.23 | 110.11 | 33.88 | 592.14 |
| 2004-12-18 | Inter | 1 | 0 | Brescia | Inter | 4/11 | 120.11 | 163.78 | 43.67 | 635.81 |
| 2005-01-01 | Milan | 5 | 2 | Lecce | Milan | 2/7 | 173.78 | 223.43 | 49.65 | 685.46 |
| 2005-01-08 | Juventus | 4 | 2 | Livorno | Juventus | 2/9 | 233.43 | 285.30 | 51.87 | 737.33 |
| 2005-01-15 | Milan | 3 | 1 | Udinese | Milan | 1/2 | 295.30 | 442.95 | 147.65 | 884.98 |
| 2005-01-22 | Juventus | 2 | 0 | Brescia | Juventus | 2/9 | 452.95 | 553.60 | 100.65 | 985.62 |
| 2005-01-29 | Milan | 0 | 1 | Bologna | Milan | 1/4 | 563.60 | 0.00 | -563.60 | 422.03 |
| 2005-02-05 | Milan | 2 | 1 | Lazio | Milan | 2/5 | 10.00 | 14.00 | 4.00 | 426.03 |
| 2005-02-12 | Juventus | 2 | 1 | Udinese | Juventus | 1/2 | 24.00 | 36.00 | 12.00 | 438.03 |
| 2005-02-19 | Milan | 1 | 0 | Cagliari | Milan | 3/10 | 46.00 | 59.80 | 13.80 | 451.83 |
| 2005-02-26 | Juventus | 3 | 0 | Siena | Juventus | 1/4 | 69.80 | 87.25 | 17.45 | 469.28 |
| 2005-03-05 | Inter | 2 | 1 | Lecce | Inter | 2/5 | 97.25 | 136.15 | 38.90 | 508.18 |
| 2005-03-12 | Milan | 1 | 0 | Sampdoria | Milan | 1/2 | 146.15 | 219.23 | 73.08 | 581.25 |
| 2005-03-19 | Juventus | 1 | 0 | Reggina | Juventus | 1/4 | 229.23 | 286.53 | 57.31 | 638.56 |
| 2005-04-09 | Milan | 1 | 1 | Brescia | Milan | 2/9 | 296.53 | 0.00 | -296.53 | 342.03 |
| 2005-04-16 | Milan | 1 | 0 | Chievo | Milan | 2/9 | 10.00 | 12.22 | 2.22 | 344.25 |
| 2005-04-23 | Milan | 3 | 0 | Parma | Milan | 2/5 | 22.22 | 31.11 | 8.89 | 353.14 |
| 2005-04-30 | Juventus | 2 | 1 | Bologna | Juventus | 3/10 | 41.11 | 53.44 | 12.33 | 365.47 |
| 2005-05-07 | Sampdoria | 3 | 0 | Lecce | Sampdoria | 9/17 | 63.44 | 97.03 | 33.59 | 399.06 |
| 2005-05-14 | Inter | 1 | 0 | Livorno | Inter | 2/7 | 107.03 | 137.61 | 30.58 | 429.64 |
| 2005-05-21 | Brescia | 2 | 1 | Messina | Brescia | 4/11 | 147.61 | 201.28 | 53.67 | 483.31 |
| 2005-05-28 | Siena | 2 | 1 | Atalanta | Siena | 1/7 | 211.28 | 241.47 | 30.19 | 513.50 |
The only silver lining is that he ended the season on a winning streak and was heading into the next season after building up a significant stake from his tenners.
And indeed 2005/06 saw him continue this streak and eventually cash in on another €1000 before halloween (see table below)! This was perfect, the new X-Box 360 was going to be released at the start of December so Paroli was able to get his order in early.
| Week | Match | Selection | Bet | Payout | Profit | Balance | ||||
| 2005-05-28 | Siena | 2 | 1 | Atalanta | Siena | 1/7 | 211.28 | 241.47 | 30.19 | 513.50 |
| 2005-08-27 | Inter | 3 | 0 | Treviso | Inter | 1/6 | 251.47 | 293.39 | 41.92 | 555.42 |
| 2005-09-10 | Milan | 3 | 1 | Siena | Milan | 1/5 | 303.39 | 364.07 | 60.68 | 616.10 |
| 2005-09-17 | Juventus | 2 | 1 | Ascoli | Juventus | 1/6 | 374.07 | 436.43 | 62.36 | 678.46 |
| 2005-09-24 | Treviso | 0 | 2 | Milan | Milan | 4/11 | 446.43 | 608.75 | 162.32 | 840.78 |
| 2005-10-01 | Milan | 2 | 1 | Reggina | Milan | 1/5 | 618.75 | 742.50 | 123.75 | 964.53 |
| 2005-10-15 | Juventus | 1 | 0 | Messina | Juventus | 1/6 | 752.50 | 877.95 | 125.44 | 1,089.97 |
| 2005-10-22 | Milan | 2 | 1 | Palermo | Milan | 2/5 | 887.95 | 1,243.12 | 355.18 | 1,445.15 |
He had no more big wins in 2005/06 but that didn't matter, wasn't a brand new X-Box with money to spare not enough!
So he went into 2006/07 with optimism. In the 4 years so far Paroli had 2 big payouts of over €1000. Sure he had lost alot of €10's as well, but €10 doesn't buy much these days and even when he lost he enjoyed the thrill and excitement.
During 2006/07 season, he had a 12 week streak where the strongest favourite won each time. He pocketed a €1219 payout before the end of March for his third massive win since 2002!
And then with this streak in 2007/08 (see below) Paroli collected his biggest cheque so far!
| Week | Match | Selection | Bet | Payout | Profit | Balance | ||||
| 2007-11-24 | Inter | 2 | 1 | Atalanta | Inter | 1/4 | 10.00 | 12.50 | 2.50 | 3,308.69 |
| 2007-12-01 | Roma | 2 | 0 | Cagliari | Roma | 2/7 | 22.50 | 28.93 | 6.43 | 3,315.12 |
| 2007-12-08 | Inter | 4 | 0 | Torino | Inter | 1/4 | 38.93 | 48.66 | 9.73 | 3,324.85 |
| 2007-12-15 | Cagliari | 0 | 2 | Inter | Inter | 4/9 | 58.66 | 84.73 | 26.07 | 3,350.92 |
| 2007-12-22 | Juventus | 2 | 0 | Siena | Juventus | 1/4 | 94.73 | 118.41 | 23.68 | 3,374.60 |
| 2008-01-12 | Milan | 5 | 2 | Napoli | Milan | 2/5 | 128.41 | 179.78 | 51.36 | 3,425.97 |
| 2008-01-19 | Inter | 3 | 2 | Parma | Inter | 2/9 | 189.78 | 231.94 | 42.17 | 3,468.14 |
| 2008-01-26 | Milan | 2 | 0 | Genoa | Milan | 2/7 | 241.94 | 311.07 | 69.12 | 3,537.26 |
| 2008-02-02 | Inter | 1 | 0 | Empoli | Inter | 1/5 | 321.07 | 385.28 | 64.21 | 3,601.47 |
| 2008-02-09 | Roma | 2 | 0 | Reggina | Roma | 2/9 | 395.28 | 483.11 | 87.83 | 3,689.30 |
| 2008-02-16 | Inter | 2 | 0 | Livorno | Inter | 1/4 | 493.11 | 616.39 | 123.28 | 3,812.58 |
| 2008-02-23 | Fiorentina | 1 | 0 | Livorno | Fiorentina | 1/2 | 626.39 | 939.58 | 313.19 | 4,125.78 |
| 2008-03-01 | Roma | 4 | 0 | Parma | Roma | 5/7 | 949.58 | 1,627.87 | 678.29 | 4,804.07 |
Paroli has continued to wager his expendable income on Serie A matches. He still wins from time to time, but truth be told, there can be years between those big payouts. For example as of Aug 2014, he has only had one big win since his record payout of March 2008. This was in Oct 2013 and for Paroli it happily coincided with the release of the Sony Playstation 4 and the X-Box One. Paroli bought both and had change left over!
Paroli is never going to get rich on his system, and will probably run into a loss in the long term. Paroli could still afford his gaming systems if he saved the weekly €10 in a savings account. But Paroli enjoys the rush of winning and tightly controls his losses by only adding €10 to his stake each week.
In this example Paroli actually posts a long term profit on his strategy. This is just a coincidence and Paroli is more likely to end up with an overall loss.
Click here for a full list of Paroli's bets.
And below chart shows his balance over time.
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