Sure Bets

"There is no such thing as a sure thing."

 Opportunities come up from time to time where you can proportion your wagers on each outcome for a guaranteed pay out.  Some examples can be found here - http://www.betbrain.com/surebets/.  What is the drawback to this apparent free money?
The drawback is that often times you have to sign up to several different bookmaker websites to get the advantage.  The hassle to sign up may not be worth the small margins in your opinion.  There may also be minimum deposits and different limitations and hassles in depositing and withdrawing your cash on each bookmaker website that may also turn you off.

By the time you have set up the accounts on the appropriate bookie websites the odds may also have changed.  Thus resulting in a missed opportunity.  Even worse, you may lose money if the odds change after you already have placed the bet on one of the websites.

So keep all that in mind as you read the rest below.

Leave aside the fact that PaddyPower are quoting different odds on the same event.  (As far as I can tell "Ireland to qualify for Euro 2016" means the same as "Ireland to Qualify - Yes", but maybe I am missing some nuance of the English language).  We can compare the odds against William Hill - taking the worse value odds from Paddy Power just for example.  If we stake €250 on PaddyPower on Ireland to Qualify we stand to win €450 if they do and lose €250 if they don't.  If we stake €180 on William Hill on Ireland not to qualify then we stand to win €450 if they don't and lose €180 if they do.  So to place both bets will cost us €430 and we will win €450 either way.  We are guaranteed to win €20.  See screenshots below of odds on offer first from Paddy Power and then from William Hill.

Odds for Ireland to qualify for Euro 2016 on paddypower bookmakers websites

Odds for Ireland to qualify for Euro 2016 on william hill bookmakers websites


Table below summarises the bets we must place to guarantee a profit.  Now in this case for Euro 2016 the pay back would be at least a year away, so investing €430 in the bank or some other investment option would see you gain some profit through interest.  You would have to off set this with your potential betting win when weighing up if this bet is best for you.

BetOddsDecimal OddsStakePotential return
Not to Qualify @paddypower4/51.8€250.00€450.00
To Qualify @william hill6/42.5€180.00€450.00
€430.00€450.00
Adjust your stake for a guaranteed €20 profit.

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